Has *anyone* apologized for tweeting misinformation {see thread} about that crash that the NTSB investigated (where they verified that Elon’s tweet was correct and Autopilot was not at fault)?
In Tommy’s $TSLA cash-tagged tweet, he said it “was autopilot all the way.”
Alex said no one was in the driver seat, “because Tesla did not implement a camera-based Driver Monitoring System.”
Russ described it as “a 21st century riddle: A car crashes, killing both occupants — but not the driver.“
Ross and Glenn agreed that autopilot was engaged one second before impact.
Brad and Billy... well— read it yourself.
Chris and Keef were ready to convict Autopilot without an investigation.
What excellent jurors they would make. 😏
Linette reported that “there was no one in the driver’s seat” and that “men died bc @elonmusk wants to charge people $10K for fancy cruise control”.
TESLAcharts tweeted that “there was nobody in the driver’s seat” “and the car drove itself into a tree and caught fire”.
Mark and Roger joked that Elon was personally responsible for the crash.
Jake sent several unhelpful tweets and posted a video that can only be described as “helpful” to someone wishing to know how to defeat Tesla’s multi-layered driver-awareness monitoring systems.
When I tweeted about the irony of the Consumer Reports safety system defeat tutorial video (that CR accused Tesla of being irresponsible while themselves employing remarkable ingenuity to act irresponsibly), here’s how Lora and Neal reacted/retweeted:
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
So I looked up all the $TSLA price targets on TipRanks.com along with each analyst's star rating (how good their past predictions have been on a 5-pt scale).
Then I just put them on a bubble chart, weighting each price target by the analyst's rating.
Notice anything?
Lots of possible takeaways, as with many data visualizations, but the one I'd like to draw your attention to is:
Without exception- *every analyst* who thinks $TSLA ought to be trading above $800/share is an above-average analyst.
And- again, without exception- every one of the below-average analysts thinks $TSLA is worth less than $800/share.
For those who don't want to read the whole 69-tweet thread:
slides 1-3 summarize the headline numbers & metrics
slides 4-20 are a bunch of pretty $TSLA charts (don't miss them!)
slides 21-69 are my detailed forecast model
1 of 69
I'm forecasting 178,254 deliveries in Q1 and almost 875K deliveries for 2021. That's 75% deliveries growth YOY.
Model S Plaid deliveries will be low in Q1, but ASP will be high. Most of 2021's growth will be Model Y.
I don't expect many Semi or Cybertruck deliveries.
2 of 69
Plaid S & X, growing Model Y sales mix, and increasing sales of FSD should improve total Automotive gross margin and thus profitability.
I have pushed the deferred tax asset to Q4 but have low confidence that's when it will occur. I just have to forecast it somewhere.
OK, almost 2.5 years ago, I tweeted out a thread comparing $TSLA to $GM as investments based on their financial position and my evaluation of their prospects.
You can probably guess where I landed 🙃, but here's that old thread if you want to read it:
(updated charts to follow)
Somebody suggested that it would be more fair to use Long Term Debt than Total Debt for GM, so I made that change (shown here, updated through 2018 Actuals):
But a few years have happened since the end of 2018, so why not update the chart?
Are you ready?
You are *not* ready. 😂🤣
Without changing the original chart's scale, here it is updated through 2020:
I have updated my $TSLA forecast with the reported Q4 deliveries.
Q4 looks like a ~$2.3B GAAP profit to me, including an unusual ~$1.6B benefit (deferred tax asset from prior years' losses) that will surprise many.
Adj. EBITDA is highlighted below for better comparability.
Total revenue per delivery should be down slightly, mostly due to sales mix (more 3/Y, less S/X). Automotive Revenue will break the previous quarterly record easily.
Total revenue should exceed $10B for the first time.
I have Total gross margin at 22.3%, not to be confused with Automotive gross margin of 26.0% with regulatory credits or 24.3% without.
The DTA benefit appears on the Provision/(Benefit) for Income Taxes line.