Thread by @pmdfoster

It's out!! My latest #Brexit Briefing which looks at stormy outlook for Northern Ireland. Not at all clear either EU or UK is prepared to move on big stuff on Protocol... biz confidence is falling, politics getting more strident. Stay with me/1

ft.com/content/38d002…

No need, probably, to rehearse the basic problem, which is that Brexit creates a trade border in the Irish Sea, that Unionists have rejected. That border gets thicker the harder the Brexit becomes over time, the more the UK diverges. The UK now wants to "sandpaper" it down /2

Again, at risk of simplifying, the UK is applying a mix of unilateral 'grace periods' on the full force of checks, and is arguing that digitisation and supply-chain tracking should enable a "pragmatic" approach that sees checks commensurate with actual risk to EU single market /3

The EU continues to talk, but stick to fundamentally "orthodox" positions - viz. The UK signed up to this, so let supply chains reorientate, and we'll do what we can within letter of law....but NI industry, logistics, haulage etc all pretty dubious that will be enough. /4

I'll come back to that, but recall that the Protocol already has roiled Unionisim, helped to defenstrate Arlene Foster and today the DUP will elect a new leader (Jeffrey Donaldson or Edwin Poots-- and the choice only points to more confrontation.../5

This kind of briefing/signalling from Donaldson camp speaks to where you need to be in order to win over the party faithful...

https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1392608905851723778

Or Edwin Poots manifest promise to "systematically undermine and strip away all aspects" of the Protocol. /6

Talk to people on all sides, and there is real concern that if something substantive isn't delivered before the Marching Season really gets going, there is likely to be more trouble, and worse than we saw at Easter. /7

Stories like this, pointing to health discrimination for NI over GB will only further stir up anti-Protocol sentiment.../8

https://twitter.com/Kilsally/status/1393112549076439042

There are some still valiantly arguing that it's a 'best of both worlds' opportunity, but this months @ManufacturingNI survey of members showed worrying signs that confidence is ebbing..these numbers are going in the wrong direction /9

manufacturingni.org/first-post-bre…

@ManufacturingNI All the signals are that this (entirely predictably) is heading in the wrong direction. Brexit, as prosecuted by @BorisJohnson was about sovereignty and identity, and it was those question that led @theresa_may to say no PM could do it this way /10

bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol…

@ManufacturingNI @BorisJohnson @theresa_may Regular readers will know I've argued for 'pragmatism' -- both sides are joint custodians of the peace -- and the UK political strategy looks to be based on a kind of diffident complacency from Lord Frost that events will force EU to face reality /11

@ManufacturingNI @BorisJohnson @theresa_may The problem is that this issue is not siloed in Brussels, it reads across into other files -- fishing and financial services -- and the French are pushing for discussion at EUCO on making UK live up to all its obligations under TCA, Withdrawal Ag and Protocol /12

@ManufacturingNI @BorisJohnson @theresa_may Of course, as @MichaelAodhan of NI Retail says -- and a man long committed to a workable middle ground -- there are games going on here. And the victim? Why, it Northern Ireland of course. ENDS

https://twitter.com/MichaelAodhan/status/1392786272918384643?s=20