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Bruce Pullman Profile picture
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17 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
My total wealth portfolio has a beta to #btc. This means that, all things being equal, if bitcoin goes up say 2%, my portfolio goes up {2*beta}%. My bitcoin beta was 0.16 at the beginning of March. It is now "irresponsibly long" at 0.34.
Putting it another way. At the moment if #btc goes from 44500 to 64500 my total wealth rises by 15 percent. Which is around $820,000. #hodl #btfd #upmybeta
What is your beta?
My beta through time since early March Image

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More from @bruce_pullman

Bruce Pullman Profile picture
19 May
People have been asking me – “am I alright?” & “what’s going to happen next?”. Sadly a number of people who I have chatted to about their holdings have been wiped out – a number at 43k, a number at 41k and this morning I have an inbox of people
who have been killed at 5:43 am London when 39k was breached!

I have always advocated those with ‘available fiat’ (cash) to #BTFD. By available, I have always said ‘cash you can afford to lose’.
Most of my correspondents could afford to lose it and are rueful and sore. Even more sadly three are in deep trouble.

Its only a real loss if you have to sell, are liquidated, or are stopped out. My sincere sympathies are with those with real losses this morning.
Read 13 tweets
Bruce Pullman Profile picture
8 May
An innocent DM "How do you handle risk in your portfolio given you keep buying £20k slugs of #btc?" generates three to me deep questions which are not typically CT material. What is risk? What is a portfolio? What is your position size?
I learned risk at the feet of Peter L Bernstein in the 1980s. Sitting in front of a huge tank in the Monterey Aquarium, Peter suggested we had conducted a sophisticated risk analysis before joining the dinner. We had considered what would happen if the giant glass tank behind
his head exploded disgorging various sharks of varying size and presumably appetites onto our laps. Now we had evaluated inter alia the design issues of the tank, the half life time of survival of a beached shark, and the value of our clothes were they to be soaked....
Read 17 tweets
Bruce Pullman Profile picture
7 May
1/ What is wealthy? Traditional “High Net Worth” is liquid assets (excluding your principal house and subtracting mortgages and other debts) of one to five million USD. I suggest that is on the low side today, but I think we would all agree $2.5m of investable assets is wealthy.
2/ So lets assume you haven’t borrowed to buy your bitcoin. Nor have any other investments. How many bitcoin do you need to have HODLed to meet that HNW target?
3/ at $50,000 you need 50 #BTC – an unattainable target for almost anyone not in Crypto before say mid 2020
Read 14 tweets
Bruce Pullman Profile picture
7 May
1/ I have been asked about the mechanics of buying a #BTC option on an exchange which operates in #BTC (not USD) like Deribit or Phemex. This causes confusion, unsurprisingly. We are used to exchanges which operate in USD with a strike price in USD.
2/ Deribit, for example, operates in #BTC. Prices of options ON #BTC and thus profits FROM #BTC options are denominated in #BTC. You don’t come across USD except for the strike price.
3/ So when I bought a 160,000 Call expiring 31-Dec-21 this morning when #BTC was at about $57.3, I paid 0.0510 #BTC. Or $2,963. The questions were asked – what happens if it expires at #BTC $60,000, $120,000, $160,000 or $200,000
Read 7 tweets

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