People have been asking me – “am I alright?” & “what’s going to happen next?”. Sadly a number of people who I have chatted to about their holdings have been wiped out – a number at 43k, a number at 41k and this morning I have an inbox of people
who have been killed at 5:43 am London when 39k was breached!
I have always advocated those with ‘available fiat’ (cash) to #BTFD. By available, I have always said ‘cash you can afford to lose’.
I have always advocated those with ‘available fiat’ (cash) to #BTFD. By available, I have always said ‘cash you can afford to lose’.
Most of my correspondents could afford to lose it and are rueful and sore. Even more sadly three are in deep trouble.
Its only a real loss if you have to sell, are liquidated, or are stopped out. My sincere sympathies are with those with real losses this morning.
Its only a real loss if you have to sell, are liquidated, or are stopped out. My sincere sympathies are with those with real losses this morning.
Those with real losses have either (i) taken fright (ii) have been over geared and had their positions liquidated or (iii) {most common} had their stops hit. I have said before and will say again – stops and gearing are for the experienced and wealthy.
Does it feel good to nurse a reduction in my paper net wealth of $1m from peak to just now? No, I am not a macho HODLer like that. I am human and vulnerable. But it doesn’t feel that bad BECAUSE….
a)I can afford it. I was already wealthier than I ever expected due to #BTC when my wealth was last at this level – 28th February 2021 when #BTC was at 43,500.
b)Since then my exposure to #BTC has gone from a beta (% exposure) to #BTC of 0.21 to 0.35.
b)Since then my exposure to #BTC has gone from a beta (% exposure) to #BTC of 0.21 to 0.35.
c)I have been buying the dips!
d)Thus any upside in #BTC price from today is going to benefit me far more going forward than from end February
d)Thus any upside in #BTC price from today is going to benefit me far more going forward than from end February
Some real questions spring to mind:
Did active BTFM do better than DCA? I did the analysis assuming that I bought at the average of the open and closing prices. I actually acquired 16.43 coin in the real world. In the simulation of DCA I would have acquired 15.60 coin (chart)
Did active BTFM do better than DCA? I did the analysis assuming that I bought at the average of the open and closing prices. I actually acquired 16.43 coin in the real world. In the simulation of DCA I would have acquired 15.60 coin (chart)
What is my strategy going forward? Not buying nor selling till dust settles. I don’t expect to sell ever – fundamental belief in #BTC narrative and UK CGT of 20% on gains. Nonetheless, #BTC is cheap today!!!
What are my targets on the upside and resistance levels on the downside? 33,000 would be my next area of concern. I know people look at 200 day EMA 42,100 and MA 39,700 and those are issues at at current level.
I would not be surprised if we dropped to 33,000 but I think it unlikely. There is however a real risk of slow progressive painful lower lows down to that level.
Upside 41,932 is comforting good news. Then 48,454. Then 53,675.
Upside 41,932 is comforting good news. Then 48,454. Then 53,675.
But I worry that once we get over the FUD, the takeoff will be brutal and trying to time that for entry points may be impossible.
So keep #HODLing when you can AND can afford it. I still expect to see 100k+ by September option expiry….
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