Some fascinating new data on another deadly pandemic:
Researchers have sequenced a full and two partial genomes of the 1918 flu from lung tissue in a museum collection in Berlin.
First of all:
This data comes from a preprint posted on @biorxivpreprint, so all the usual caveats about research that has not been peer-reviewed apply. biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
@biorxivpreprint What we already knew:
There is very little genomic data on 1918 flu. Basically two full genomes from the US (one from a woman buried in permafrost in Alaska, one from a soldier who died in Camp Upton, NY) and a few dozen short fragments.
@biorxivpreprint Just for comparison: There have been far more than a million genomes of #SARSCoV2 sequenced in the current pandemic.
(Of course, influenza viruses weren’t even discovered in 1918 and so researchers are stuck trying to look back and sequence very old samples.)
@biorxivpreprint So what does the new study add:
The researchers looked at 13 lung specimens dated between 1900 and 1931 from two collections, at the Berlin Museum of Medical History and at the Natural History Museum in Vienna.
They got lucky with three samples, all from 1918.
@biorxivpreprint One sample came from a woman who died in 1918 in Munich (exact date unfortunately not known). Her lung sample was later transferred to the Berlin collection.
The researchers managed to sequence the entire genome. This is the first full 1918 flu genome from outside the US.
@biorxivpreprint Two samples came from young soldiers - one 17, one 18 years old - that died on the same day, 27th June 1918, in Berlin.
The researchers managed to sequence close to 90% of one and close to 60% of the other. These are the most complete sequences yet from the milder first wave.
@biorxivpreprint Obviously, given how few genomes of 1918 flu are available, any conclusions from comparing these have to be taken with a grain of salt.
Still, there are some tantalising clues here.
Let me spell out just two:
@biorxivpreprint 1. The previously reported flu sequences carry two mutations in the gene for the nucleoprotein that help the virus avoid our innate immunity: D16 and P283.
But the two Berlin sequences from the first wave carry the more bird-like versions (G16 and L283).
@biorxivpreprint As Sébastien Calvignac-Spencer, who led the work at @Leendertz_Lab told me, the virus might have adapted to humans this way: “It could be a sign that the virus was evolving to better avoid the human immune response in the first months of the pandemic."
@biorxivpreprint@Leendertz_Lab 2. The researchers assembled the entire polymerase complex from the Munich sequence and tested its activity in the lab. It was about half as active as the one from the Alaska sequence, suggesting that some of these genetic differences could have mattered in the pandemic.
@biorxivpreprint@Leendertz_Lab But the more important, broader point here is that these century-old RNA viruses can be sequenced much more easily now. It’s still not easy, Calvignac-Spencer told me. "But it’s not the kind of impossible work that we once thought it was.”
@biorxivpreprint@Leendertz_Lab So more genomes will likely be added in coming years as more and more researchers are able to do this work and that should give researchers much more data to investigate hypotheses about the 1918 flu.
It shows - once again - the value of museums and pathology archives.
@biorxivpreprint@Leendertz_Lab As @angie_rasmussen told me: "This paper elegantly shows that pathology archives may be a treasure trove of genetic information that could inform preparedness and prevention efforts, and we should think about how to best utilize these untapped resources for this purpose."
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Getting vaccinated this week was a “bittersweet moment”, for him, says @DrTedros at @WHO press conference. “On the one hand, vaccination is a triumph of science, and global solidarity", he says. On the other hand, global vaccine inequity is continuing.
@DrTedros@WHO “My thoughts were very much with the health workers around the world who have been fighting this pandemic for more than a year”, says @DrTedros.
"The fact that so many are still not protected is a sad reflection on the gross distortion in access to vaccines across the globe."
@DrTedros@WHO "I understand why some countries want to vaccinate their children and adolescents”, says @drtedros. "But right now, I urge them to reconsider and to instead donate vaccines to COVAX.”
The most comprehensive review of how the world responded to #covid19 and how to prevent the next pandemic was published today.
It will likely be the basis of discussions in coming months and years and so I read it for you.
Who wrote the report?
This is the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response (IPPPR), established last year in response to a resolution of the World Health Assembly.
It consists of 13 members led by @HelenClarkNZ and @MaEllenSirleaf.
@HelenClarkNZ@MaEllenSirleaf (To be completely transparent:
I was actually interviewed by this panel in February but only about the communication aspects of the pandemic. I have no other involvement with this report or the panel.)
"Globally, we are now seeing a plateauing in the number of #COVID19 cases and deaths, with declines in most regions”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser. "But it’s an unacceptably high plateau, with more than 5.4 million reported #covid19 cases and almost 90.000 deaths last week."
@DrTedros@WHO “We've been here before”, says @drtedros. “Over the past year, many countries have experienced a declining trend in cases and deaths, relaxing public health and social measures too quickly, and individuals have laid down their guard, only for those hard won gains to be lost."
@DrTedros@WHO "We are still in a perilous situation”, says @DrTedros.
"The spread of variants, increased social mixing, the relaxation of public health and social measures and inequitable vaccination, are all driving transmission."
@GretchenVogel1@Sciencenorwayno I have made the point again and again that his is about context.
In this case on top of low infection rates (see page 9):
- mRNA vaccines are becoming available faster in Norway
- 2nd dose of mRNA now to be given after 12 weeks, so more people will get first dose faster.
@GretchenVogel1@Sciencenorwayno If the context changes, decision may too:
Recommendation is "based on the level of knowledge we have at present… Changes in infection rates, new virus mutants, unforeseen problems with vaccine deliveries and new information about side effects could lead to other conclusions"
“I know that this is not a politically easy thing to do. So I very much appreciate the leadership of the United States", says @DrTedros at @WHO presser on #covid19 about US support for #TRIPSwaiver “We urge other countries to follow their example.”
@DrTedros@WHO "We are in an unprecedented crisis that requires unprecedented action”, says @drtedros.
“The World Trade Organization provisions for IP waivers were designed precisely for a situation like this.
If we don't use them now, then when?"
@DrTedros@WHO This is important news:
"This afternoon, WHO gave emergency use listing to Sinopharm Beijing's #COVID19 vaccine, making it the sixth vaccine to receive WHO validation for safety, efficacy and quality."
UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is now advising healthy adults younger than 40 “to receive an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – where available and only if this does not cause substantial delays in being vaccinated”.
This is based on the fact that “the chances of a younger person becoming seriously ill with #COVID19 get smaller as infection rates increasingly come under control in the UK”. @GretchenVogel1 and explored these trade-offs in risk and benefit here:
@GretchenVogel1 UK's regulator, the MHRA:
"The balance of benefits and risks is very favourable for older people but is more finely balanced for younger people and we advise that this evolving evidence should be taken into account when considering the use of the vaccine” gov.uk/government/new…