1/6 During yesterday's mini-dip, I saw unrest in my feed & some people were pinging me if I was still bullish on #Bitcoin
To me this was nothing but another shake-out of weak hands and leverage, while nothing changed regarding the big picture 🤷♂️
A short 🧵 on (not) getting rekt
2/6 So, what happened?
Simple: as soon as #Bitcoin set a new local high and dipped a bit, there was a steep uptick in people aping in long on leverage again 🦍
As always, this is a recipe for getting rekt - which is exactly what happened a few hours later 🤦
3/6 Meanwhile, there were large stablecoin inflows to exchanges and large #bitcoin outflows from OTC desks - both signs that there is some serious dip buying going on
"Thanks for the liquidity, (rekt) apes!" 🐳🎩
4/6 During this dip, the average coin dormancy decreased (a bit), which means that relatively young coins made up an increasingly large part of the on-chain volume
Another sign that it was particularly the less experienced market participants that were triggered by the dip
5/6 The irony is that if you zoom out (even just a little bit), none of this was a big deal at all 🤏
Unless you're an experienced, professional trader that consciously chooses to trade small timeframes: zoom out & slow down (lower your time preference)
6/6 That is why I am personally not looking at intra-day charts and on-chain flows but particularly focus on the larger (4-year) market cycle
If you're curious about my current thoughts on the bigger picture and why I am not worried, this 🎩 might help:
1/9 About 9 hours ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting #Bitcoin for payments out of environmental concerns, crashing price by -$8.7k (-16%) to just below $46k
2/9 First, there's the inconsistency:
- On April 22nd, Elon agreed with Jack that #Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy
- On May 11th, his latest tweet before this was a poll where he asked if Tesla should accept $DOGE as a payment option; which is also a Proof-of-Work coin
3/9 Then there's also the inconsistency that Tesla is apparently still comfortable holding #Bitcoin
As pointed out by @yassineARK, its energy consumption is there to secure past transactions
Are they THAT unaware, or is something else going on? 🤔
1/10 Recently, I became convinced that the #bitcoin price simply went up too fast and this consolidation is functioning as a re-accumulation phase
IMO the January local top was the turnaround point in the market structure 🏔️
I'll elaborate in this 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️
2/10 During the January local top, the #bitcoin price went up FAST 🥵
Compared to 2017, this run-up happened: 1) at an earlier post-halving date 2) at a faster acceleration, and 3) to a higher degree (reached a 🌡️ of 7 - which in 2017 it only reached during the blow-off top)
3/10 Due to the rapid price increase, unrealized profits were sky high, triggering an increasing number of entities to take profits
Since the January local top, profit-taking cooled down to pre-ATH levels - despite the #bitcoin price itself still grinding up 👀
1/7 Short 🧵 on the recent hash rate drop in #Bitcoin, its recovery and the impact of that on several on-chain metrics ⛓️
On April 16th, hash rate on #Bitcoin had a steep decline related to to a power outage in China, to which it is now recovering - it even approaches new ATH's
2/7 As a result of the hash rate drop, block interval times increased, which means that blocks were temporarily being produced at a (much) slower pace than the normal 10 blocks/min
As miners came back online & mining difficulty adjusted downwards, blocks are now coming in fast
3/7 Blocks coming in at a faster pace has done wonders for the mempool congestion & related transaction fees, making on-chain #Bitcoin transactions cheaper again
Over the past 24 hours, miners were even churning through the mempool transactions paying a 5 sat/vByte fee
1/27 1st day of the month.. #Bitcoin market analysis time! 🥳
This edition, I'll look at 3 questions:
- Why did we dip (again)?
- Is there still demand?
- Is there still room for growth?
A relatively long 🧵 this time, but I think you may just like it 🤫
2/27 Alright, lets first just look at the price chart
#bitcoin started the month strong, rallying to a new ATH at ~$64.9k, but then dropped to ~$47.0k (-27.56%), where it found a lot of confluence for support (e.g., Fibonacci, UTXO realized price, whale inflows, NVT Price)
3/27 Upon writing these monthly analyses, I'm spotting a trend: I'm writing about a dip each month 😅
If anyone has an explanation for why the #bitcoin price dips near the end of each month, I'm all ears 👂
The article reflects on the beauty of the 4-year cycle 🌹 - as well as on its inevitable demise 🪦
In this 🧵, I'll summarize the key points 👇
2/20 The article starts with a primer on #Bitcoin's supply issuance schedule
Summary:
- The # of newly mined coins (block subsidy) halves every ~4 years
- As a result, its inflation rate declines over time ('disinflation')
- As a result, it has a 21 million #BTC hard cap
3/20 Intended or not, the ~4-year #Bitcoin halvings (vertical lines) have triggered an exponential price rise (white line) each time so far, making the 4-year moving average price (black line) positive during its entire lifespan