1/6 During yesterday's mini-dip, I saw unrest in my feed & some people were pinging me if I was still bullish on #Bitcoin

To me this was nothing but another shake-out of weak hands and leverage, while nothing changed regarding the big picture 🤷‍♂️

A short 🧵 on (not) getting rekt
2/6 So, what happened?

Simple: as soon as #Bitcoin set a new local high and dipped a bit, there was a steep uptick in people aping in long on leverage again 🦍

As always, this is a recipe for getting rekt - which is exactly what happened a few hours later 🤦 Image
3/6 Meanwhile, there were large stablecoin inflows to exchanges and large #bitcoin outflows from OTC desks - both signs that there is some serious dip buying going on

"Thanks for the liquidity, (rekt) apes!" 🐳🎩 Image
4/6 During this dip, the average coin dormancy decreased (a bit), which means that relatively young coins made up an increasingly large part of the on-chain volume

Another sign that it was particularly the less experienced market participants that were triggered by the dip Image
5/6 The irony is that if you zoom out (even just a little bit), none of this was a big deal at all 🤏

Unless you're an experienced, professional trader that consciously chooses to trade small timeframes: zoom out & slow down (lower your time preference) Image
6/6 That is why I am personally not looking at intra-day charts and on-chain flows but particularly focus on the larger (4-year) market cycle

If you're curious about my current thoughts on the bigger picture and why I am not worried, this 🎩 might help:

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More from @dilutionproof

13 May
1/9 About 9 hours ago, Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla would stop accepting #Bitcoin for payments out of environmental concerns, crashing price by -$8.7k (-16%) to just below $46k

Something smells fishy here though.. 🐟

A 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️

2/9 First, there's the inconsistency:
- On April 22nd, Elon agreed with Jack that #Bitcoin incentivizes renewable energy
- On May 11th, his latest tweet before this was a poll where he asked if Tesla should accept $DOGE as a payment option; which is also a Proof-of-Work coin ImageImage
3/9 Then there's also the inconsistency that Tesla is apparently still comfortable holding #Bitcoin

As pointed out by @yassineARK, its energy consumption is there to secure past transactions

Are they THAT unaware, or is something else going on? 🤔

Read 9 tweets
8 May
1/10 Recently, I became convinced that the #bitcoin price simply went up too fast and this consolidation is functioning as a re-accumulation phase

IMO the January local top was the turnaround point in the market structure 🏔️

I'll elaborate in this 🧵 with some on-chain data ⛓️
2/10 During the January local top, the #bitcoin price went up FAST 🥵

Compared to 2017, this run-up happened:
1) at an earlier post-halving date
2) at a faster acceleration, and
3) to a higher degree (reached a 🌡️ of 7 - which in 2017 it only reached during the blow-off top)
3/10 Due to the rapid price increase, unrealized profits were sky high, triggering an increasing number of entities to take profits

Since the January local top, profit-taking cooled down to pre-ATH levels - despite the #bitcoin price itself still grinding up 👀
Read 11 tweets
4 May
1/7 Short 🧵 on the recent hash rate drop in #Bitcoin, its recovery and the impact of that on several on-chain metrics ⛓️

On April 16th, hash rate on #Bitcoin had a steep decline related to to a power outage in China, to which it is now recovering - it even approaches new ATH's
2/7 As a result of the hash rate drop, block interval times increased, which means that blocks were temporarily being produced at a (much) slower pace than the normal 10 blocks/min

As miners came back online & mining difficulty adjusted downwards, blocks are now coming in fast
3/7 Blocks coming in at a faster pace has done wonders for the mempool congestion & related transaction fees, making on-chain #Bitcoin transactions cheaper again

Over the past 24 hours, miners were even churning through the mempool transactions paying a 5 sat/vByte fee
Read 7 tweets
2 May
Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis meta-thread 🧵

Since January 2021, I am doing a market analysis at the start of each month, assessing on-chain & other valuation models 📈

This meta-thread links them together for future reference 🔗

January 2021:
Read 5 tweets
1 May
1/27 1st day of the month.. #Bitcoin market analysis time! 🥳

This edition, I'll look at 3 questions:
- Why did we dip (again)?
- Is there still demand?
- Is there still room for growth?

A relatively long 🧵 this time, but I think you may just like it 🤫
2/27 Alright, lets first just look at the price chart

#bitcoin started the month strong, rallying to a new ATH at ~$64.9k, but then dropped to ~$47.0k (-27.56%), where it found a lot of confluence for support (e.g., Fibonacci, UTXO realized price, whale inflows, NVT Price)
3/27 Upon writing these monthly analyses, I'm spotting a trend: I'm writing about a dip each month 😅

If anyone has an explanation for why the #bitcoin price dips near the end of each month, I'm all ears 👂

@WClementeIII also noticed this:
Read 27 tweets
28 Apr
1/20 @BitcoinMagazine just posted my article "An Ode And Forthcoming Obituary To #Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle"

bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/an-obi…

The article reflects on the beauty of the 4-year cycle 🌹 - as well as on its inevitable demise 🪦

In this 🧵, I'll summarize the key points 👇
2/20 The article starts with a primer on #Bitcoin's supply issuance schedule

Summary:
- The # of newly mined coins (block subsidy) halves every ~4 years
- As a result, its inflation rate declines over time ('disinflation')
- As a result, it has a 21 million #BTC hard cap
3/20 Intended or not, the ~4-year #Bitcoin halvings (vertical lines) have triggered an exponential price rise (white line) each time so far, making the 4-year moving average price (black line) positive during its entire lifespan
Read 20 tweets

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