Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis meta-thread ๐Ÿงต

Since January 2021, I am doing a market analysis at the start of each month, assessing on-chain & other valuation models ๐Ÿ“ˆ

This meta-thread links them together for future reference ๐Ÿ”—

January 2021:

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @dilutionproof

4 May
1/7 Short ๐Ÿงต on the recent hash rate drop in #Bitcoin, its recovery and the impact of that on several on-chain metrics โ›“๏ธ

On April 16th, hash rate on #Bitcoin had a steep decline related to to a power outage in China, to which it is now recovering - it even approaches new ATH's Image
2/7 As a result of the hash rate drop, block interval times increased, which means that blocks were temporarily being produced at a (much) slower pace than the normal 10 blocks/min

As miners came back online & mining difficulty adjusted downwards, blocks are now coming in fast Image
3/7 Blocks coming in at a faster pace has done wonders for the mempool congestion & related transaction fees, making on-chain #Bitcoin transactions cheaper again

Over the past 24 hours, miners were even churning through the mempool transactions paying a 5 sat/vByte fee Image
Read 7 tweets
1 May
1/27 1st day of the month.. #Bitcoin market analysis time! ๐Ÿฅณ

This edition, I'll look at 3 questions:
- Why did we dip (again)?
- Is there still demand?
- Is there still room for growth?

A relatively long ๐Ÿงต this time, but I think you may just like it ๐Ÿคซ
2/27 Alright, lets first just look at the price chart

#bitcoin started the month strong, rallying to a new ATH at ~$64.9k, but then dropped to ~$47.0k (-27.56%), where it found a lot of confluence for support (e.g., Fibonacci, UTXO realized price, whale inflows, NVT Price)
3/27 Upon writing these monthly analyses, I'm spotting a trend: I'm writing about a dip each month ๐Ÿ˜…

If anyone has an explanation for why the #bitcoin price dips near the end of each month, I'm all ears ๐Ÿ‘‚

@WClementeIII also noticed this:
Read 27 tweets
28 Apr
1/20 @BitcoinMagazine just posted my article "An Ode And Forthcoming Obituary To #Bitcoinโ€™s Four-Year Cycle"โ€ฆ

The article reflects on the beauty of the 4-year cycle ๐ŸŒน - as well as on its inevitable demise ๐Ÿชฆ

In this ๐Ÿงต, I'll summarize the key points ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/20 The article starts with a primer on #Bitcoin's supply issuance schedule

- The # of newly mined coins (block subsidy) halves every ~4 years
- As a result, its inflation rate declines over time ('disinflation')
- As a result, it has a 21 million #BTC hard cap
3/20 Intended or not, the ~4-year #Bitcoin halvings (vertical lines) have triggered an exponential price rise (white line) each time so far, making the 4-year moving average price (black line) positive during its entire lifespan
Read 20 tweets
24 Apr
1/6 Since last Sunday, the #bitcoin price went from >$60k to <$50k in a dip that scared some (newer) market participants

Who were selling here, and are they done selling? ๐Ÿณ

A small ๐Ÿงต using @whale_map data to zoom in on the price action of this last week
2/6 The market turnaround started last Sunday (April 18th), when price broke through $60k with increased volume

As can be seen in this ๐Ÿณ outflows chart, a lot of #bitcoin moved that day that was bought by whales on August 3rd, 2020 for ~$11.2k

Looks like (>400%) profit taking
3/6 On Thursday (April 22nd), price also broke down the ~$1 trillion market cap price

On that day, a lot of ๐Ÿณ-owned #bitcoin that were bought on December 22nd, 2020, for ~$23.8k moved

Looks again like (>100%) profit taking - this time by a slightly newer market participant
Read 6 tweets
1 Apr
1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin Market Analysis ๐Ÿ“ˆ

In this ๐Ÿงต, I'll take an in-depth look at several on-chain metrics to explore where we are in the cycle, what market players are currently (not) selling, how this impacts the current market supply and speculate where we might be heading
2/18 I'll start by looking at the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) to get a feel for how hot current prices are in the context of its 4-year cycle

In short; prices have heated up quickly, but the ๐ŸŒก๏ธ has consolidated just below the BPT6 Band - just like we saw in 2017
3/18 If you look at popular on-chain metrics that are often used to assess the overall #Bitcoin market cycle, you get a similar picture; we're well underway in this cycle's ๐Ÿ‚ market - but are not at prior-cycle-top levels yet

Charts by @PositiveCrypto's
Read 18 tweets
1 Feb
1/18 Monthly #Bitcoin market analysis ๐Ÿ“ˆ

This month, I'll share my thoughts on:
1. Where are we in the cycle?
2. Has the correction bottomed?
3. When next run-up?

๐Ÿงต with BPT, MVRV, Reserve Risk, Puell Multiple, SOPR, exchange balances, miner activity, reflexivity & more ๐Ÿ‘‡
2/18 Based on the #Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT) per cycle charts, we are still early in the # of post-halving days and the maximum price ๐ŸŒก๏ธ that was reached

If you correct the BPT for M2 inflation; even more so

Want more BPT? Check out this thread: Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...Bitcoin Price Temperature (...
3/18 If the #Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) or Cross Asset (S2FX) model is correct, we would also expect a further price increase over the next year or so

In comparison to the long-term power law corridor of growth, we are a bit above the modeled value ($19.4k) though Bitcoin Price Temperature (...
Read 18 tweets

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