Thread by @miamalan

[Thread] 1. Is #VaccineRolloutSA moving fast enough to consume the jabs that SA will receive over the next 5-6 weeks? To answer that, we need to look at how many jabs we’ll have and how many daily vaccinations we would need to do to use the shots.

2. How many jabs will we (likely) have for the next 5-6 weeks?
* Business SA on Fri said we'll have 3 mil #JandJ doses by the end of June (if the FDA authorises the release of the jabs in time)
* 4.5 mil #Pfizer doses by the end of June (#Mkhize announced this in May)

3. Business SA/health dpt calculated:
* For the wk of May 17 we needed to do 54 200 vaccinations/day
* For the wk of May 24 we need to do 109 200 vaccinations/day
* For the other weeks until the end of June we need to do 192 500 vaccinations/day
(this is based on 6 days/wk)

4. How many #Pfizer doses have we given so far?
May 17/18: 39 371
May 19: 38 134
May 20: 39 236
May 21: 44 976
May 22: 564
May 23: 5 037
May 24: 4 542 (the nr of jabs done on Sun)
TOTAL: 171 860
Average jabs per/day for the wk of May 17 = 24 551 (we needed 54 200/day).

5. #VaccineRolloutSA SA is thus behind on its goals. What do we need to do to catch up?

* Week of May 24: We need to do 4.5X more vaccinations/per day (109 200) than the week of May 17
* Week of May 31: We need to do 8X more vaccinations (192 500) than in the week of May 17

6. What do we need to scale up?
* More open sites, vaccinators
* Jabs must be delivered on time
* Enough needles, syringes, swabs
* Sites have to be open at least 1 weekend day (targets are based on vaccinations 6 days/wk)
* A functional booking system
* Efficient comms

7. So what are we doing?

* Each week day last week, we improved on vaccination nrs (the weekend day nrs were low).
* The almost 45 000 jabs we administered on Thu is close to 2X what we did on any day of the #Sisonke study.
* We'll only get nrs for Mon (May24) this evening.

8. These @mediahackza graphs show the pace at which SA's #vaccinations has increased between mid-February and mid-May.

9. In the week of May 17, we started with 87 sites + closed with 258 sites, according to @healthza stats (not all sites operated each day, see slide for provincial breakdown). By Fri +/- 1800 sites had received permits to operate. (No @HealthZA info yet for nr of sites this wk).

10. Some of the new private sites that opened this week:
* 9 Mediclinic sites:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1395397965934731267

* 5 @dischem sites:

https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1396380896031301637

* Discovery is opening a 2nd site in its Sandton building, there's already one site in the building

11. How long does it take to train vaccinators? According to a Business SA webinar, vaccinators (nurses) do an online course that takes a few hours to complete. How many vaccinators have we trained so far? We don’t know. @healthza hasn’t released recent data.

12. How well is our EVDS working? There are glitches. Some people have received appointment dates, but many don’t understand why they haven’t received anything. As a result many people go to sites without appointments asking to be helped (and many are helped) - also this week.

13. @healthza says a 2nd #Pfizer dose will be given 42 days after the 1st one, but many people who got vaccinated received a text message/appointment card with a 2nd appointment date for 21 days after their 1st dose.

14. Only #HealthWorkers or people of 60+ should currently register on the EVDS. @healthza says the system will calculate ages from ID nrs and kick people younger than 60 out. But over the weekend some people younger than 60 managed to register:

https://twitter.com/Aneshree6/status/1396393872004091905

15. Last week, some people with booked appointments turned up at sites that took walk-ins and were then turned away, because the sites were “full”. That needs to stop.

https://twitter.com/HeidiGiokos/status/1395294712345632770

16. Good news is that @sahpra has approved new, easier storage conditions for #Pfizer jabs which will likely lead to faster and cheaper administration, because thawed jabs can now be stored in fridges for six times longer than before. bit.ly/34aGVmg

17. We need better comms from @healthza. People are confused about who will be prioritised for vaccination and which sites are open. Hopefully, the @healthza’s COVID dashboard, that they said would go live on Monday (it didn’t), will address that.

18. How many #HealthWorkers and people of 60+ have registered on the EVDS? By Monday afternoon:
* 2 763 992 people in total
- Health workers = 958 502
- 60+ = 1 805 490

19. Perhaps the most useful tips for comms are from @healthza’s own #COVID report of May 24:
* Clarify the plan for #Phase2
* Be honest
* Build trust via the release of consistent, daily updates of sites, doses that arrived, etc (and respond to journos' requests for info)