So I've heard some talk on here about Hispanics warming to Biden. The #NM01 election is ofc special, but I'd watch parts of ABQ's Bernalillo County (where >90% of the NM-1 vote is cast). Biden did 3% better than Obama, but worse in most Hispanic-majority legislative districts.
HDs 69 and 50 sort of throw off the map, but they’re each a single precinct and aren’t fully in NM-1. 69 is heavily American Indian and 50 is a rural white-majority precinct.
same color scale at the top map, but this 2008 -> 2020 by precinct. The NM-1 part of the county (almost all of it) is outlined. Biden still carried the cluster of red precincts in the south-central part of the county, just by smaller margins.

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More from @JMilesColeman

2 Jun
Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
Read 8 tweets
4 May
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!?
Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.

Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Like, I've had some people who work on campaigns -- who's hearts are into it -- show me hypothetical redistricting maps that they've done, or stuff like that.

My first reaction wasn't "well, you're treating it like a sport here..."
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image
As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.
This Facebook post was also the same month I joined Twitter so go figure.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
PAIN
blue - obama -> biden
red - mccain-> trump
pink - obama -> trump
though a lot of light blue McCain -> Biden in Charlotte
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Here's the change in North Carolina from the 2008 to 2020 presidential races. Both Obama and Trump narrowly carried the state. But basically every suburban precinct -- even in the smaller cities out east -- got more Democratic, while the rest of the state moved red.
The swing to Biden in precincts that were relatively "suburban" out east really stood out to me. Wilson, Rocky Mount, Kinston, Goldsboro, etc. Even a few around Lumberton(!).
Nash County (where Roy Cooper is from) has one of the more unique paths: it was McCain -> Obama -> Trump -> Biden. For Senate it was also Tillis '14 -> Cunningham '20.

The blue there is west of the city of Rocky Mount.
Read 4 tweets

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