Thread by @JMilesColeman

Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1399929703256006659

In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.

In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%

ftr this was Clinton +36%, so Stansbury is ahead of that. But I don't like using 2016 in NM, as the third party vote was so high. SD-11 was 62% Clinton, 26% Trump, 12% other.

Update: With all of Bernalillo County in, Stansbury carried HD-14 by just over 46.4%. This was in between Obama's 56% margin and Biden's 40%. The election day vote brought the R % up a bit from the original tweet, but still a larger improvement here over Biden than districtwide.

Maybe this is a small nuance, but as returns come in, I try to tweet in the present tense, to imply things may not be final. Like in the original tweet, something like 'Her lead is cutting across all groups' is less definitive than 'Her lead cut across all groups.'

So this is just the Bernalillo County part of NM-1. Stansbury did several points better than Biden in HDs 11 & 14, which are heavily Hispanic, but slightly worse in the southern ones (pink) which are also Hispanic majority. A mixed bag I guess.

Stansbury did worse than Biden in her own HD-28. But that darker blue cluster in the middle (basically the central part of ABQ) is interesting.