Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
ftr this was Clinton +36%, so Stansbury is ahead of that. But I don't like using 2016 in NM, as the third party vote was so high. SD-11 was 62% Clinton, 26% Trump, 12% other.
Update: With all of Bernalillo County in, Stansbury carried HD-14 by just over 46.4%. This was in between Obama's 56% margin and Biden's 40%. The election day vote brought the R % up a bit from the original tweet, but still a larger improvement here over Biden than districtwide.
Maybe this is a small nuance, but as returns come in, I try to tweet in the present tense, to imply things may not be final. Like in the original tweet, something like 'Her lead is cutting across all groups' is less definitive than 'Her lead cut across all groups.'
So this is just the Bernalillo County part of NM-1. Stansbury did several points better than Biden in HDs 11 & 14, which are heavily Hispanic, but slightly worse in the southern ones (pink) which are also Hispanic majority. A mixed bag I guess.
Stansbury did worse than Biden in her own HD-28. But that darker blue cluster in the middle (basically the central part of ABQ) is interesting.

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More from @JMilesColeman

4 May
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!?
Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.

Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Like, I've had some people who work on campaigns -- who's hearts are into it -- show me hypothetical redistricting maps that they've done, or stuff like that.

My first reaction wasn't "well, you're treating it like a sport here..."
Read 4 tweets
11 Feb
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 4 tweets
10 Feb
Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image
As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.
This Facebook post was also the same month I joined Twitter so go figure.
Read 4 tweets
30 Jan
PAIN
blue - obama -> biden
red - mccain-> trump
pink - obama -> trump
though a lot of light blue McCain -> Biden in Charlotte
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
Here's the change in North Carolina from the 2008 to 2020 presidential races. Both Obama and Trump narrowly carried the state. But basically every suburban precinct -- even in the smaller cities out east -- got more Democratic, while the rest of the state moved red.
The swing to Biden in precincts that were relatively "suburban" out east really stood out to me. Wilson, Rocky Mount, Kinston, Goldsboro, etc. Even a few around Lumberton(!).
Nash County (where Roy Cooper is from) has one of the more unique paths: it was McCain -> Obama -> Trump -> Biden. For Senate it was also Tillis '14 -> Cunningham '20.

The blue there is west of the city of Rocky Mount.
Read 4 tweets
24 Jan
Ironic that Dems are usually criticized as a 'coastal' party, but I think Georgia's relative *lack* of a coastline helps Dems -- it attracts fewer R retirees. The gains NC Dems made in New Hanover County (Wilmington) have easily been erased by R growth in Pender & Brunswick.
and this is even before you throw in Carteret and Craven.
It was close, but Brunswick County wouldn't even vote for Mike McIntyre in 2012 -- that's when it was gone for basically *any* Dem.
Read 5 tweets

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