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4 Jun, 5 tweets, 1 min read
U.S. employers added 559,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.
nytimes.com/2021/06/04/bus…
Very small upward revisions to March and Aril. Net gain of 27,000 jobs vs previous estimates.
Unemployment rate fell for "good" reasons in that employment was up, unemployment was down. But labor force was basically flat (actually down slightly), which will add fuel to "labor shortage" concerns.
Gains once again concentrated in leisure and hospitality (+292k). Mixed bag in other sectors. Some rebound in manufacturing, transportation/warehousing, but losses in construction, retail.
Moving to my usual charts thread. Picks up here:

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Jun
Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Read 13 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
3 Jun
Is inflation really "transitory" as the Fed insists? Will labor shortages ease by fall? Can workers expect more raises?
I can't tell you any of that. But I *can* tell you what indicators to watch in this strange moment for the U.S. economy.
nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
1. Prices are up, but mostly in categories with clear links to the pandemic. The question is whether it spreads. (Although, as @ConstanceHunter reminded me: "Transitory does not mean it's not disruptive.")
It's tempting to create ad hoc baskets of goods (ex-leisure, ex-autos, ex-... other stuff that doesn't fit my narrative), but it's easy to wind up cherry-picking, intentionally or otherwise.
Read 22 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
7 May
So, here's where I am on the #JobsReport right now:
First, we should never read too much into any one report, *especially* in moments like now when so much is changing. Revisions can be big enough to shift our overall interpretation. And even "real" changes can prove short-lived.
But if your prior coming into today was "labor supply isn't a real problem right now," I think this report has to shift that somewhat.
Here's why:
The two strongest pieces of evidence against the "labor supply" story were:
1. Job growth was really strong (hard to say there's a shortage when companies can hire 1m people per month!);
2. Wage growth was modest, even in the most affected industries.
Read 12 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
7 May
Honestly, at first glance I have no idea what to make of the jobs report. Not just that it was weak, but the particular way it was weak, is perplexing. So come with me as I try to work through it the only way I know how -- with charts!
First, the obvious: The jobs gains in April were disappointing, and leave us in a deep hole. We're still 8.2 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 2020.
The obvious first thought is "labor shortage!" And I don't dismiss that out of hand. But the industry breakdown doesn't immediately line up with that. Leisure & hospitality (where we've heard the biggest complaints about lack of workers) actually did fine.
Read 15 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
17 Feb
The latest round of federal aid is hitting the economy: Big bounceback in retail sales last month (+5.3%) after three straight monthly declines.
census.gov/retail/marts/w…
Retail sales (incl. food services) are now up nearly 8% from pre-pandemic levels. Amazing rebound from the more than 20% decline last spring.
Picture looks very different for restaurants/bars. They saw a jump in January too, but are still way behind where they were before the pandemic, and haven't fully made up for the ground lost in the fall/winter.
Read 5 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
5 Feb
The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a modest rebound from December's decline but still a much slower pace of growth than over the summer.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.
nytimes.com/live/2021/02/0…
Revisions make December's decline look worse, now down 227k jobs. November also revised down.
We're still down nearly 10 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, and we gained essentially no jobs in January. We're barely even climbing out of the hole right ow.
Read 7 tweets

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