Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Hourly earnings growth in leisure and hospitality (nonsupervisory) remained high in May, but came back down to earth a bit (this chart shows three-month change, but one-month slowdown even more significant).
But note that hourly pay in leisure and hospitality is now running above its pre-Covid trend. Wouldn't make too much of one month of data, but if that continues, it's notable.
(More on wages from me and @jeannasmialek in today's print edition: nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…)
The official unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in May. Adjusting for misclassification and labor force exits (roughly what the Fed has recently been discussing lately), unemployment was 8.7%, down just a tick from April.
Labor force participation was down slightly overall last month, and flat for prime-age (25-54) workers. That's pretty disappointing given the hole we're in
Notably, participation among prime-age women actually ticked down last month. Monthly data bounce around, so wouldn't read too much into that, but the bigger picture is clear: Women left the labor force in greater numbers during the pandemic and have made little recent progress.
Although if we look at employment (rather than participation) and at all adults (not just prime age), women have caught up to men and both now face the same jobs deficit.
Different story by race. Black and Hispanic workers still face a larger jobs deficit than white and Asian workers.
In my story yesterday, I highlighted (at @ConstanceHunter's suggestion) involuntary part-time workers as a sign of labor supply. By that measure, not much sign of a labor shortage: "part-time for economic reasons" basically flat last month. nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
This is interesting: Unemployed people were roughly as likely to leave the labor force last month as to find jobs.
Meanwhile, most people who got jobs last month came from outside the labor force -- though that share is still below its prepandemic level.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Very small upward revisions to March and Aril. Net gain of 27,000 jobs vs previous estimates.
Unemployment rate fell for "good" reasons in that employment was up, unemployment was down. But labor force was basically flat (actually down slightly), which will add fuel to "labor shortage" concerns.
Is inflation really "transitory" as the Fed insists? Will labor shortages ease by fall? Can workers expect more raises?
I can't tell you any of that. But I *can* tell you what indicators to watch in this strange moment for the U.S. economy. nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
1. Prices are up, but mostly in categories with clear links to the pandemic. The question is whether it spreads. (Although, as @ConstanceHunter reminded me: "Transitory does not mean it's not disruptive.")
It's tempting to create ad hoc baskets of goods (ex-leisure, ex-autos, ex-... other stuff that doesn't fit my narrative), but it's easy to wind up cherry-picking, intentionally or otherwise.
So, here's where I am on the #JobsReport right now:
First, we should never read too much into any one report, *especially* in moments like now when so much is changing. Revisions can be big enough to shift our overall interpretation. And even "real" changes can prove short-lived.
But if your prior coming into today was "labor supply isn't a real problem right now," I think this report has to shift that somewhat.
Here's why:
The two strongest pieces of evidence against the "labor supply" story were: 1. Job growth was really strong (hard to say there's a shortage when companies can hire 1m people per month!); 2. Wage growth was modest, even in the most affected industries.
Honestly, at first glance I have no idea what to make of the jobs report. Not just that it was weak, but the particular way it was weak, is perplexing. So come with me as I try to work through it the only way I know how -- with charts!
First, the obvious: The jobs gains in April were disappointing, and leave us in a deep hole. We're still 8.2 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 2020.
The obvious first thought is "labor shortage!" And I don't dismiss that out of hand. But the industry breakdown doesn't immediately line up with that. Leisure & hospitality (where we've heard the biggest complaints about lack of workers) actually did fine.
The latest round of federal aid is hitting the economy: Big bounceback in retail sales last month (+5.3%) after three straight monthly declines. census.gov/retail/marts/w…
Retail sales (incl. food services) are now up nearly 8% from pre-pandemic levels. Amazing rebound from the more than 20% decline last spring.
Picture looks very different for restaurants/bars. They saw a jump in January too, but are still way behind where they were before the pandemic, and haven't fully made up for the ground lost in the fall/winter.
The U.S. economy added 49,000 jobs in January, a modest rebound from December's decline but still a much slower pace of growth than over the summer.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.3%. nytimes.com/live/2021/02/0…
Revisions make December's decline look worse, now down 227k jobs. November also revised down.
We're still down nearly 10 million jobs from the pre-pandemic peak, and we gained essentially no jobs in January. We're barely even climbing out of the hole right ow.