For now #Bitcoin remains stuck in a drawdown that has lasted 53 days and bottomed -53% below the latest ATH.

That’s a big one if you compare it to BTC history.

But all assets have to deal with that. So let's put those Bitcoin corrections in context.

Time for a 🧵
1/ Spoiler alert, all assets have to deal with periods of drawdowns.

So if we take say gold and some of the largest stocks by market cap the only question is: does Bitcoin stand out?

Let’s take a look. 👇
2/ #Bitcoin, Apple, Amazon, JPMorgan... everyone has had large drawdowns.

Take Apple. It is now the largest stock by market cap but that wasn’t a smooth ride.

Over its long history, the stock had to endure several corrections of more than 75%...

Check it out 👇
3/ Actually most of the companies that have produced large total returns have had to deal with at least one very large drawdown.

Among those, #Bitcoin does not stand out.
4/ For sure #Bitcoin is more volatile than other assets.

That means it tends to have more sizeable corrections. But that also means it recovers faster.

All in all, BTC doesn’t really look like an outlier.👇
5/ Right now #Bitcoin is in a drawdown similar to the long pause of the 2013 bull market.

Nobody knows how long that will last.

But at least, the 4-year halving cycles are there to make sure you won’t have to wait 27 years for some action (yes, I’m looking at you gold).
6/ In the grand scheme of things, the narrative of #Bitcoin as digital gold has just started to play out.

At this point Bitcoin is still smaller than Apple, only a fraction of the gold market and simply a drop in an ocean of bonds...

You are still early. 👇
END/ If you want to learn more about #Bitcoin and its place in the future of global finance, there is just one thing to do, go subscribe to the Ecoinometrics newsletter. 👇
ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometric…

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More from @ecoinometrics

27 Apr
Last week #Bitcoin had five red candles in a row...

In those times you can choose to do one of two things:

Panic sell as if you were equipped with paper hands.

OR

Think rationally about what’s behind the price drop and act accordingly.

Time for a thread 🧵
1/ In a downturn, only two questions matter:

i. Is this correction the result of some event that is invalidating your investment thesis?

ii. Is this correction different than anything else we’ve seen in the past?

Indeed...
2/ If your investment thesis is wrong, then there is no point staying in your position. Sell and move on.

If the correction is completely unheard of, then you need to dig deeper on the first question to see if you haven’t missed anything.

But...
Read 9 tweets
4 Apr
When #Bitcoin hits $110k, its market cap will be larger than Apple. That’s about 2x from the current price.

So how long could it take for #BTC to get there?

Maybe faster than you’d expect...

Time for a thread 🧵👇
1/ Starting at the time of the halving, how long does it take for #Bitcoin's value to double? Then double again? And again?

The answer is anywhere between 12 days and 300 days each time.

Check it out 👇
2/ So far in this cycle the 1st doubling took 190 days and the 2nd took 50 days.

The next doubling will happen at $74k. We have been waiting for it for 3 months.
Read 8 tweets
30 Jan
Remember when Citigroup downgraded MicroStrategy to a “sell” rating? That was at the beginning of December.

Back then MSTR was up 150% since their first #Bitcoin purchase.

At the close on Friday $MSTR was up 350% since their first #BTC purchase...

Time for an update 👇👇👇
1/ So far MicroStrategy bought #Bitcoin five times for a total of 70,784 #BTC. At the close on Friday their return on treasury hodlings over 100%. 👇👇👇
2/ When you consider that the value of MicroStrategy’s #Bitcoin treasury is equivalent to more than 40% of their market cap it is easy to imagine that the value of $MSTR is heavily driven by that of #BTC. 👇👇👇
Read 5 tweets
10 Jan
As far as the past cycles can be guides for the current one, it is clear that #Bitcoin at $10k or even $20k is a thing of the past.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ After the 1st halving #Bitcoin went straight up and topped at 100x from where it started with a single significant drawdown before the bear market.
2/ After the 2nd halving, the growth trajectory was much smoother with multiple drawdowns happening regularly along the way.
Read 8 tweets
13 Dec 20
MicroStrategy is about to buy $650 million worth of #Bitcoin and raise their total investment to $1.125 billion.

When it comes to public companies $MSTR is winning the #BTC treasury game by a good margin.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ MicroStrategy started their #Bitcoin treasury program back in August.

The least we can say is that this was good for $MSTR shareholders.

See for yourself 👇
2/ Looking at MicroStrategy's stock correlations it is clear that something happened.

Before:
MSTR vs BTC correlation +22%
MSTR vs NASDAQ correlation +51%

After:
MSTR vs BTC correlation +53%
MSTR vs NASDAQ correlation +20%
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov 20
Depending on who you ask, #Bitcoin could be worth anywhere between $50k and $300k by the end of this halving cycle.

Ok, but how big is that compared to other assets?

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ At the current price, the market size of #Bitcoin is that of a large cap stock.

That’s big but for digital gold it isn’t that big.
2/ Talking about digital gold, #Bitcoin is only about 3.6% of the size of the gold market…

So there is plenty of room to grow in order to catch up.
Read 5 tweets

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