Watch this space for further updates; we will augment these series to report how much of the domestic currency sovereign bonds are held by foreign investors
Or, how much have EMEs left behind Original Sin only to encounter "Original Sin Redux"?
One key theme is the prevalence of offshore borrowing; corporates borrow in dollars through their affiliates abroad
For international debt securities, the "nationality" series that sees through to the parent is more than double the "residence" series for EMEs (right-hand panel)
Dreamcatcher puts into one package the BIS’s cross-border banking statistics; or more accurately, it gathers the BIS’s locational banking statistics that breaks out the cross-border bank claims according to the residence principle
Hovering your cursor above the segment of the circle that represents a particular jurisdiction will bring up the full list of cross-border assets and liabilities of banks operating from there
Much can be learned on the payment system and the monetary-fiscal nexus from the rise and fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609 - 1820), one of the first central banks in Europe
The Bank of Amsterdam started life as a rigid stablecoin, where holders of silver and gold coins delivered them to the Bank, in return for deposits
These deposits were used for wholesale payments - for settlement of financial instruments like bills of exchange where a payment was settled by debiting the account of the payer and crediting the account of the receiver, much like the modern wholesale payment system
The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
This decoupling of the bond and syndicated loan market is a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of Lehman, when loan volumes crashed and bond issuance surged (right-hand panel)
Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
The authors get at tail risks through quantile regressions that track outliers in realised inflation; the red curves below give the densities of 4-quarter ahead probability densities for inflation
Well done to @GitaGopinath and the team for the timely report and for putting together this superb panel chaired by @SoumayaKeynes; time was too short to explore all the issues, but a couple of the points deserve emphasis
We're accustomed to thinking of the global economy as a collection of "islands", each island being a national GDP area; exchange rates then adjust to bring balance of payments into balance
Today's report from the IMF shows that the short-term response of exports to a depreciation does not follow this script; imports decline and exports barely budge imf.org/en/Publication…
First thing to say is that #DollarFunding need outside the Unites States is big; dollar liabilities of non-US banks comes in at 13 trillion dollars - this is the same figure as just before the GFC
But notice the shift in the composition; the GFC was essentially a transatlantic crisis, with European banks at the eye of the storm.
European banks have retrenched, but others have taken their place; Asian EMEs are especially notable