The BIS is expanding coverage of its government bonds statistics

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The BIS Quarterly Review out today has an introductory piece outlining what's new

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
Bird's eye view of what's on offer from the BIS on its coverage of government bonds

Table C4 is brand new; it has the all-important breakdown by currency of issue

bis.org/statistics/sec…
Total amounts have risen, and emerging market economies (in dark blue) now account for around a quarter of the total

("general government" includes regional government bonds, as well as sovereign bonds narrowly defined)

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
The key takeaway is that emerging markets increasingly borrow in their own currencies, reducing their reliance on foreign currency borrowing

... at least, on the part of their governments; corporate borrowing is a different matter

Watch this space for further updates; we will augment these series to report how much of the domestic currency sovereign bonds are held by foreign investors

Or, how much have EMEs left behind Original Sin only to encounter "Original Sin Redux"?

bis.org/speeches/sp190…
And speaking of corporate debt, the BIS Quarterly Review released today has a must-see piece on the subject

Thread continues to guide you through the highlights

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
One key theme is the prevalence of offshore borrowing; corporates borrow in dollars through their affiliates abroad

For international debt securities, the "nationality" series that sees through to the parent is more than double the "residence" series for EMEs (right-hand panel)
Here is the breakdown by country
bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
This touches on another BIS theme - the risk-taking channel of exchange rates

Financial conditions in EMEs fluctuate with the strength of the dollar
Plenty more for readers to ponder

Check it out

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…

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More from @HyunSongShin

25 Jan
Happy to announce the launch of the BIS’s “Dreamcatcher” data visualisation tool with the latest BIS banking statistics:

bis.org/statistics/rpp…

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Dreamcatcher puts into one package the BIS’s cross-border banking statistics; or more accurately, it gathers the BIS’s locational banking statistics that breaks out the cross-border bank claims according to the residence principle

bis.org/statistics/sta…
Hovering your cursor above the segment of the circle that represents a particular jurisdiction will bring up the full list of cross-border assets and liabilities of banks operating from there

bis.org/statistics/sta…

The example below is the United Kingdom
Read 8 tweets
10 Nov 20
Much can be learned on the payment system and the monetary-fiscal nexus from the rise and fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609 - 1820), one of the first central banks in Europe

Link to my BIS working paper published today:

bis.org/publ/work902.h…

A short thread follows
The Bank of Amsterdam started life as a rigid stablecoin, where holders of silver and gold coins delivered them to the Bank, in return for deposits
These deposits were used for wholesale payments - for settlement of financial instruments like bills of exchange where a payment was settled by debiting the account of the payer and crediting the account of the receiver, much like the modern wholesale payment system
Read 7 tweets
14 Aug 20
Corporate credit markets decoupled in March; bond issuance boomed but discretionary bank credit stalled

Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin

A thread follows

bis.org/publ/bisbull29…
First, some facts:

The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
This decoupling of the bond and syndicated loan market is a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of Lehman, when loan volumes crashed and bond issuance surged (right-hand panel)
Read 15 tweets
23 Jul 20
Inflation tail risks have risen, mostly to the downside but some also to the upside

Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28…
Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
The authors get at tail risks through quantile regressions that track outliers in realised inflation; the red curves below give the densities of 4-quarter ahead probability densities for inflation
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul 20
Well done to @GitaGopinath and the team for the timely report and for putting together this superb panel chaired by @SoumayaKeynes; time was too short to explore all the issues, but a couple of the points deserve emphasis

A short thread follows
We're accustomed to thinking of the global economy as a collection of "islands", each island being a national GDP area; exchange rates then adjust to bring balance of payments into balance
Today's report from the IMF shows that the short-term response of exports to a depreciation does not follow this script; imports decline and exports barely budge imf.org/en/Publication…
Read 23 tweets
16 Jul 20
Central bank swap lines were instrumental in quelling #DollarFunding stresses back in March

The latest #BIS_Bulletin provides a bird's eye perspective, showcasing the use of BIS banking statistics at its best bis.org/publ/bisbull27…

A thread follows
First thing to say is that #DollarFunding need outside the Unites States is big; dollar liabilities of non-US banks comes in at 13 trillion dollars - this is the same figure as just before the GFC
But notice the shift in the composition; the GFC was essentially a transatlantic crisis, with European banks at the eye of the storm.

European banks have retrenched, but others have taken their place; Asian EMEs are especially notable
Read 21 tweets

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