Thread by @the_coinmaster

1/ IS A BIG BITCOIN PUMP COMING?

This thread is not meant to be hopium but I want to point to some real credible data to make my case.

I will keep this thread short but filled with info to save both yours and my time.

Lets start the 🧵

$BTC #Bitcoin #BTC #Analytics

2/ If you have followed me for long time, you would know I use Futures market signals like Open Interest, Funding rate & Premiums to analyze the market sentiment & the probable direction we're going to go next. Here, we will use funding & OI for our analysis.

$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin

3/ If you take a close look at the below chart, there are red & green lines. Red are regions where price dumped soon after and green are when price pumped soon after.

Green lines are also those lines which have very low or negative funding. Red have very high positive funding

4/ Now take a closer look at the bottom Aggregated Open Interest chart (sum total OI of all big exchanges like Binance, Bybit, FTX, Okex, Huobi)

You'll see that price makes a big move after OI reaches 100K BTC. OI reduces after this move & then it goes up again.

$BTC #Bitcoin

5/ As soon as price hovers around 100K, there's a big dump or big pump

Dump: Price dumps when OI stays > 100K BTC & funding rate is high. This makes sense as the market is now highly leveraged in the LONG trade

Pump: Price pumps when OI > 100K & funding rate is 0 or negative

6/ This makes sense as market is increasingly getting leveraged in the SHORT trade, so price pumps to liquidate the Shorters & reduce OI

If you look at the current OI, its around 94K which means there's still time for the market to get more levered in the short trade,

7/ which means price could stay at these levels or could correct a bit more to trap more shorts.

Its pretty obvious that funding will remain negative throughout getting more levered shorts.

When this happens , OI will slowly move towards 100K.

8/ After staying a few days around 100K, market needs to go in the direction in which OI will reduce, which is the UPSIDE.

This will mean a big pump is coming soon to liquidate majority of leveraged shorts. Whether this will be a relief rally or beginning of the next phase of

9/ the bullrun is a different question & I will analyze it separately

I usually share my thoughts on my substack. Free sign up to get the next updates. You can refer to my PDF is need to learn more on the above concepts. Details in pinned tweet $BTC #BTC

coinmaster.substack.com

Data source- @coinalyzetool