Thread by @the_coinmaster

$BTC IS BULLISH BUT WHERE IS THE TOP?

1/ In my previous thread in June, I talked about how we are close to a blast-off. We got that blast-off last weekend. BTC reclaimed 10K, & now is trending towards 11.5K. Now what next?

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #SP500 #Analytics #2020Bullrun

2/ If u look closely at this below fractal from Jan to June' 2016, you can see the similarities with Mar- July'2020. This fractal led into 2016 Halving. There was a 133 day long price recovery & consolidation before the Blast-off to 800$. We're close to where $BTC was in June'16

3/ We are at a similar stage. Price has recovered & consolidated for 137 days before pumping to 11.4K this week. Next is 2nd Leg of Blast-off to a "Price peak". Going by the 2016 fractal, this "price peak" should be achieved within August. All dips will be for buying! #BTFD #HODL

4/ I know there will be many naysayers to this fractal. Below is an On-chain piece of data to validate this fractal. The 2 Yr+ HODL% currently is almost same as that just before 2016 Blast-off (May-June'2016). This further validates the 2016 fractal & flags off the #2020Bullrun

5/ Next question is How high will Bitcoin go before dropping again?
We will do bit of Fundamental Data Analytics to estimate August price peak. In the below chart, the red & green dots are the deflection of price from Stock-to-flow price.

Data Source: @glassnode

6/ Deflection is the ratio of (Price / Stock -to- flow price). So deflection is < 1 if Price < S2F price (undervalued) & deflection is > 1 if Price > S2F price (overvalued).
Currently we are still at a "green" dot (deflection <1), that is, price is still undervalued, even at 11K

7/ Price will peak ONLY after it crosses over to >1 that is it gets from a green dot to red dot.

Now where is the next red dot? In below pic, for almost all red dots, deflection ranges between 10%-60%, that is, when price peaks, BTC becomes overvalued in range of 10%- 60%.

8/ This means ATLEAST 10% deflection (overvalue) is highly likely. Actual overvalue can be more than 10%, but it is safe to say we will see atleast 10% deflection.

Below picture contains the Stock to Flow prices in August that are already calculated as per Plan B's S2F model.

9/ If blow-off top comes by 10th August, 15.6K is the minimum price for the top (Actual top can be more than this!). If blow-off euphoria comes by 15th August, minimum price for top is 16K.
If top comes by 31st August, price will peak atleast to 17.6K.

10/ So depending on when the top comes, we can estimate atleast till what price we need to HODL our coins.

In my view, 16K to 17K should be the price peak for August!!!

Actual peak can be more than this, but I don't think we peak before 16K.

#BTC #Bitcoin

11/ Below is link to my Wordpress blog with bit more details on this. wordpress.com/block-editor/p…

Like, comment, retweet & FOLLOW on both Twitter & WP. Thanks for reading. Cheers!🍻

#BTC #Bitcoin $BTC #2020BullRun #Crypto #SP500

If you're unable to open the WordPress blog link please try this investingreinvented.finance.blog/2020/07/31/bit…

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