Today's #EuropeBigWet report has a twist in it. The arrival of a new element in the model forecasts, a zippy little storm that looks a bit cyclonic heading towards the UK.

Today's update follows.

Follow #EuropeBigWet to get a daily update.

Here's a view from this morning.
These four satellite still images are taken at around the same time and show the picture before the heat of the day started heating up the storms.
And here's a view from this evening, which is almost identical to yesterday evening.
And our 48-Hour water forecasts, from four models are also very similar to yesterdays. Lots of rain.

Albeit not where I am.
And the long term rain outlook remains the same. Lots more rain going forward.

So far so good. But there is now a new ingredient in all this a whizzy little Atlantic Storm which could well shake things up in a few days time.
Its the second of the two storms you see in this animation. Which as you can see has some tightly packed isobars and the look of a cyclonic about it.
And here's a view of it under the hood. Doing a great job of pushing a lot of the water that is currently sitting over Europe away.
Here's a view from a perspective to the right. Some of could get quite gnarly.

1. Before the storms arrive a blast of dry cold air comes in across Norway, and rain when it collides with warm air.

2. This looks more windy to me. And still very wet.

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More from @althecat

12 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 22 tweets
12 Jun
What a difference a gnarly little low makes. The till now stationary #EuropeBigWet is about to be blown away. Which will be a relief to some. But there are still a bunch of storms coming. Image
Here in France where we had been expecting to largely ride this out a bunch of big rain events are now coming. Which I will enjoy and will probably also be welcomed by farmers.
A series of North Atlantic storms will soon break the current traffic jam caused by the stationary low over Eastern Europe.

This 10 day simulation shows one possible scenario but the underlying situation is absurdly complicated, so don’t count on this as a guide.
Read 8 tweets
11 Jun
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda. ImageImageImage
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa. ImageImageImageImage
Read 19 tweets
11 Jun
This is an incredible resource to assist in understanding of the Tigray conflict. Updated today June 11th. From @GeographyUGent

It provides a holistic overview of the situation including information on the status of the ongoing war. Image
This map shows military actions identified and documented by the team. @GeographyUGent has been studying the Tigray region for 60 years and has a deep network of contacts in the region from which they are gathering information.

12 "Conflict incidents" are included for May 2021. Image
@GeographyUGent 17 "Conflict Incidents" are reported from the month of April. And as of April 23rd this is their map of territorial control. At that time the TDF (Tigray Defence Force) was still in control of significant areas across the region. Image
Read 4 tweets
11 Jun
Ok so this is what this is all about.

@IlhanMN @Ilhan doing her job and politely asking legitimate questions - ones which are being asked by many people all around the world - about the jurisdiction off the nascent International Criminal Court.
Given the absurd over the top responses you would think she had said something offensive. But it seems that she said none of the things that a range of nut jobs are accusing her of saying.
The truth is that Israel and the US arbitrarily exercise their view of justice via an arbitrary policy of targeted assassination. This is not a controversial observation it is the simple truth.

They also refuse to recognise the ICC.
Read 10 tweets
11 Jun

Super efficient delivery at Dinan vaccination center. Tiny needle. Painless. No sign of 5G connection yet :)

Super thankful. To scientists who created this miracle of science, & all the people involved in the delivery.

2nd appointment in July.

Vive La France! Image
‘Tis an exceedingly beautiful place to get vaccinated Dinan. Afterwards I visited the church here which is nearly 1000 years old. Dating back to the crusades and before William of Normandie conquered Britain. ImageImageImageImage
There is an article in French about the Basilica of St Sauveur here >>…

I joined the choir when we lived here briefly in 2017.

Today I visited the chapels of Jesus and Mary and gave thanks for life in general and vaccinations in particular. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets

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