B.1.617 Public Reporting

On Tuesday, @CMOH_Alberta minimized spread of B.1.617 in #COVID19AB with:

"Of all the variants of concern identified last week, only 5% of them were the B.1.617."

I found this misleading, and I will explain why.

alberta.ca/release.cfm?xI…

@DFisman Image
With my spreadsheet, I use Reported Date. So I get around 9.2%, not 5%.

But there shouldn't be that much difference from the Retrospective Testing in June. Only ~800 more cases from before June have been screened so far, and in May ~17K were not screened. ImageImageImage
So I got the AB Health stats which identify Variants by Swab Test Date.

From 1 May to 5 June*, exponential growth of B.1.617. Misleading of CMOH to "put our numbers in context" as only ~5% in last week, when this⤵️ is the 💥growth.

* Most recent days omitted as data incomplete. ImageImageImage
My thanks to @ArynToombs for pulling a CSV from the AB Health JSON, so I could get the variant results by swab test date.

I don't understand more than what I said above, so have a look at his work

aryntoombs.github.io

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More from @ZiadFazel

13 Jun
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Sat 12 June

Apologies for late Scorecard today. Joined the 1% of Albertans now getting 2nd Dose every day, then enjoyed a well-spaced 🌞patio dinner w family.

By Date Reported,💥B.1.617 now up to 11.4% of Variants, and 8% of Cases, since 1 June. My Balanced Scorecard showi...Pie charts showing B.1.617 ...
Before I get into variants, I wanted to explain difference between Counting Variants:
• by Date Reported, or
• by Case Date.

I can do either, but choose Date Reported for my Scorecard. This prevents prior dates from churning, and helps give important insight into AB Health. Image
There's a time lag between Case Date & Date Reported. Full genetic sequencing to eg. detect protein spikes specific to B.1.617 can take 1-2 wks.

Nice story here from @JenLeeCBC about how much work that was for B117 in 2nd Wave, until rapid screening.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…
Read 10 tweets
12 Jun
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Fri 11 June

Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling looks like Feb/Mar Start of 3rd Wave. Steep Decline ended suddenly at end of May, now rising slowly.

B.1.617 is no longer a HIDDEN leading indicator. Now 11.2% of recorded cases since 1 June. My balanced scorecard showi...Wastewater Sampling Graph s...Closeup of Wastewater Sampl...
Variants.

💥B.1.617 continues to explode among variants, but don't miss P1🔥 82% growth since 1 May.

AB Health still not providing number of cases screened for variants, which prevents me from reporting % coverage or % ID. I'm assuming the 2 missing days sampled at April rates. ImageImageImage
Variants II

Odd to call B117 part of "Old Covid" since it arrived in January, was minimized in February, then drove the 3rd Wave.

B.1.617 is getting all the attention, but don't forget P1 which has been growing since February. Both are driving the 4th Wave. ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
5 Jun
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Sat 5 June

Nothing remarkable in general downward trend of "Old Covid" - Original Wild Strain and B117.

BIG 🔥 in "New Covid" of B.1.617 and P1 Variants of Concern.

(see rest of thread) Balanced scorecard of #COVID19AB metrics showing general dow8 Pie Charts showing the explosion of variants from 17 March
B.1.617 has exploded and appears to be drastically under screened in May.
• ⏫38 in last day, to 74 in just 4 days of June, vs 51 in all of May.
• 🔥from 0.4% of variants thru May, to 9.1% so far in June.
• Pushing P1 down relatively from 8.8% thru May, to 5.1% so far in June.
I have been warning about B.1.617 undercount in Alberta since early May in increasingly stronger terms. Not an epidemiologist, but I can see issues hidden in stats or spin.

I built my Variant Spreadsheet with cumulative stats, to find hidden problems between any points in time.
Read 6 tweets
4 Jun
I think we’re seeing the same thing in Alberta:
• “Old Covid” of B117 📉
• “New Covid” of P1 & B.1.617 📈
• New Covid masked by under 50% screening for variants since 1 May, despite restrictions imposed to contain variant-driven spread.

@GosiaGasperoPhD
To illustrate:
• Active cases (all strains) falling in AB Health graph
• Cumulative variant cases rising in @ArynToombs graphs

Smarter people than me eg. Aryn, @CBCFletch, @ByMatthewBlack may be able to graph Total or Active Cases, then subtract selected variants from this. ImageImageImageImage
Recent illustration from @GosiaGasperoPhD for further background.

She saw this early with #B117 overtaking the original wild strain, and now again with P1 and maybe a fast-rising B.1.617.

Their geographic distribution in Aryn's graphs is interesting.

Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Wed 2 June

Keys:
• Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling bounced up to pre-3rd wave level. Nice work @ucalgaryCHI to publish on 48-hr target. 👍
@CBCFletch 7-day average of New Cases up. Daily used to pull average down - now lifting it up. Wastewater sampling showing...Daily New Cases have crosse...Image
Variant Crunches.

AHS claims it is screening ~90% of cases, but cases ⏬80%.

In real numbers, AHS has been performing as few as 160 tests daily. See @ByMatthewBlack 📉.

edmonton.ctvnews.ca/infographics-c…

Since 1 May, AHS did NOT screen more cases 17,224 than it screened 16,006 (48.2%). AHS claim of nearly 90% var...Matthew Black CTV Graph of ...Ziad's Spreadsheet Crunchin...Growing Unused Variant Scre...
Almost as if AB Health wants to be wilfully blind since May, for Optics of Reopening.

Appears to be bare minimum screening, dictated by outbreaks. Not for community cases with substantial unused capacity.

B.1.617 ⏫ 10 cases today to 51
P1 ⏫ from 4.6% before 1 May; now 8.8% ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Premier Kenney imposed #COVID19AB restrictions without any exit criteria.

4.4m Albertans aren't going to do this again without a clear "Are we there yet?"

Let's meet or beat last summer:
• We did it before
• We have vaccines to help us now
• Summer-Summer comparison is fair
I propose this clear, balanced scorecard.
• Mix of leading & lagging indicators.
• Existing, official data sources.
• Measures of success or trouble we already know
• Simple to update or replicate

#LastSummer #BalancedScorecard #COVID19AB
I propose targets from 1 July 2020 (Canada Day).
• We were out of lockdown
• We thought we had #COVID19 under control then
• Symbolic date for all 🇨🇦 (like 4th of July 🇺🇸)
• Achievable again, especially with vaccines

Specific, Measurable, Actionable, Realistic, Timed
#SMART
Read 8 tweets

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