With my spreadsheet, I use Reported Date. So I get around 9.2%, not 5%.
But there shouldn't be that much difference from the Retrospective Testing in June. Only ~800 more cases from before June have been screened so far, and in May ~17K were not screened.
So I got the AB Health stats which identify Variants by Swab Test Date.
From 1 May to 5 June*, exponential growth of B.1.617. Misleading of CMOH to "put our numbers in context" as only ~5% in last week, when this⤵️ is the 💥growth.
* Most recent days omitted as data incomplete.
My thanks to @ArynToombs for pulling a CSV from the AB Health JSON, so I could get the variant results by swab test date.
I don't understand more than what I said above, so have a look at his work
Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling looks like Feb/Mar Start of 3rd Wave. Steep Decline ended suddenly at end of May, now rising slowly.
B.1.617 is no longer a HIDDEN leading indicator. Now 11.2% of recorded cases since 1 June.
Variants.
💥B.1.617 continues to explode among variants, but don't miss P1🔥 82% growth since 1 May.
AB Health still not providing number of cases screened for variants, which prevents me from reporting % coverage or % ID. I'm assuming the 2 missing days sampled at April rates.
Variants II
Odd to call B117 part of "Old Covid" since it arrived in January, was minimized in February, then drove the 3rd Wave.
B.1.617 is getting all the attention, but don't forget P1 which has been growing since February. Both are driving the 4th Wave.
Nothing remarkable in general downward trend of "Old Covid" - Original Wild Strain and B117.
BIG 🔥 in "New Covid" of B.1.617 and P1 Variants of Concern.
(see rest of thread)
B.1.617 has exploded and appears to be drastically under screened in May.
• ⏫38 in last day, to 74 in just 4 days of June, vs 51 in all of May.
• 🔥from 0.4% of variants thru May, to 9.1% so far in June.
• Pushing P1 down relatively from 8.8% thru May, to 5.1% so far in June.
I have been warning about B.1.617 undercount in Alberta since early May in increasingly stronger terms. Not an epidemiologist, but I can see issues hidden in stats or spin.
I built my Variant Spreadsheet with cumulative stats, to find hidden problems between any points in time.
I think we’re seeing the same thing in Alberta:
• “Old Covid” of B117 📉
• “New Covid” of P1 & B.1.617 📈
• New Covid masked by under 50% screening for variants since 1 May, despite restrictions imposed to contain variant-driven spread.
Keys:
• Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling bounced up to pre-3rd wave level. Nice work @ucalgaryCHI to publish on 48-hr target. 👍
• @CBCFletch 7-day average of New Cases up. Daily used to pull average down - now lifting it up.
Variant Crunches.
AHS claims it is screening ~90% of cases, but cases ⏬80%.
In real numbers, AHS has been performing as few as 160 tests daily. See @ByMatthewBlack 📉.
Premier Kenney imposed #COVID19AB restrictions without any exit criteria.
4.4m Albertans aren't going to do this again without a clear "Are we there yet?"
Let's meet or beat last summer:
• We did it before
• We have vaccines to help us now
• Summer-Summer comparison is fair
I propose this clear, balanced scorecard.
• Mix of leading & lagging indicators.
• Existing, official data sources.
• Measures of success or trouble we already know
• Simple to update or replicate
I propose targets from 1 July 2020 (Canada Day).
• We were out of lockdown
• We thought we had #COVID19 under control then
• Symbolic date for all 🇨🇦 (like 4th of July 🇺🇸)
• Achievable again, especially with vaccines