Keys:
β’ Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling bounced up to pre-3rd wave level. Nice work @ucalgaryCHI to publish on 48-hr target. π
β’ @CBCFletch 7-day average of New Cases up. Daily used to pull average down - now lifting it up.
Variant Crunches.
AHS claims it is screening ~90% of cases, but cases β¬80%.
In real numbers, AHS has been performing as few as 160 tests daily. See @ByMatthewBlack π.
Nothing remarkable in general downward trend of "Old Covid" - Original Wild Strain and B117.
BIG π₯ in "New Covid" of B.1.617 and P1 Variants of Concern.
(see rest of thread)
B.1.617 has exploded and appears to be drastically under screened in May.
β’ β«38 in last day, to 74 in just 4 days of June, vs 51 in all of May.
β’ π₯from 0.4% of variants thru May, to 9.1% so far in June.
β’ Pushing P1 down relatively from 8.8% thru May, to 5.1% so far in June.
I have been warning about B.1.617 undercount in Alberta since early May in increasingly stronger terms. Not an epidemiologist, but I can see issues hidden in stats or spin.
I built my Variant Spreadsheet with cumulative stats, to find hidden problems between any points in time.
I think weβre seeing the same thing in Alberta:
β’ βOld Covidβ of B117 π
β’ βNew Covidβ of P1 & B.1.617 π
β’ New Covid masked by under 50% screening for variants since 1 May, despite restrictions imposed to contain variant-driven spread.
Premier Kenney imposed #COVID19AB restrictions without any exit criteria.
4.4m Albertans aren't going to do this again without a clear "Are we there yet?"
Let's meet or beat last summer:
β’ We did it before
β’ We have vaccines to help us now
β’ Summer-Summer comparison is fair
I propose this clear, balanced scorecard.
β’ Mix of leading & lagging indicators.
β’ Existing, official data sources.
β’ Measures of success or trouble we already know
β’ Simple to update or replicate
I propose targets from 1 July 2020 (Canada Day).
β’ We were out of lockdown
β’ We thought we had #COVID19 under control then
β’ Symbolic date for all π¨π¦ (like 4th of July πΊπΈ)
β’ Achievable again, especially with vaccines
I am sharing my buying experience, including links and prices, to help others. H/T @RajBhardwajMD for the Marketplace story.
The new Variants of Concern are much more transmissible (stickier) than the coronavirus we encountered last spring. We need better than the usual masks.
Demand >> supply for true N95 respirators for healthcare workers exposed to infected people, so @cbcmarketplace looked at respirators meeting Chinese KN95 & Korean KF94.
These are now available because #ZeroCOVID countries no longer need as many.
My doubts began right away, when I saw pallets stacked on their sides inside the walk-in freezer.
But my concerns are not just limited to violations of Alberta's Occupational Health & Safety Code, meant to protect workers, and the risk of damaging vials.
For another example, why is this Ultracold Freezer so warm that the Manager, Immunization Business, a Registered Nurse, is able to touch it with her bare hand?
It is not below -70ΒΊC as required for the Pfizer vaccine. How can DM Wynnyk claim Alberta is prepared without this?
Last week I decided to dig into the life-threatening Precondition & Excuses from Alberta Health to resist enabling the National COVID-19 Exposure Notification App.
Frustrated with the lack of answers, or evasive answers from provincial elected officials, municipal officials and provincial media have been asking @CMOH_Alberta.