I think we’re seeing the same thing in Alberta:
• “Old Covid” of B117 📉
• “New Covid” of P1 & B.1.617 📈
• New Covid masked by under 50% screening for variants since 1 May, despite restrictions imposed to contain variant-driven spread.
I had pasted one of Aryn's graphs 2x above instead of geographic distribution🧐
While every variant dangerous everywhere:
• B.1.617 concentrated in Calgary
• B117 spread fairly evenly per capita (?)
• B.1.351 mainly in Calgary/Edmonton
• P1 disproportionally high in North
• • •
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Nothing remarkable in general downward trend of "Old Covid" - Original Wild Strain and B117.
BIG 🔥 in "New Covid" of B.1.617 and P1 Variants of Concern.
(see rest of thread)
B.1.617 has exploded and appears to be drastically under screened in May.
• ⏫38 in last day, to 74 in just 4 days of June, vs 51 in all of May.
• 🔥from 0.4% of variants thru May, to 9.1% so far in June.
• Pushing P1 down relatively from 8.8% thru May, to 5.1% so far in June.
I have been warning about B.1.617 undercount in Alberta since early May in increasingly stronger terms. Not an epidemiologist, but I can see issues hidden in stats or spin.
I built my Variant Spreadsheet with cumulative stats, to find hidden problems between any points in time.
Keys:
• Most leading indicator Wastewater Sampling bounced up to pre-3rd wave level. Nice work @ucalgaryCHI to publish on 48-hr target. 👍
• @CBCFletch 7-day average of New Cases up. Daily used to pull average down - now lifting it up.
Variant Crunches.
AHS claims it is screening ~90% of cases, but cases ⏬80%.
In real numbers, AHS has been performing as few as 160 tests daily. See @ByMatthewBlack 📉.
Premier Kenney imposed #COVID19AB restrictions without any exit criteria.
4.4m Albertans aren't going to do this again without a clear "Are we there yet?"
Let's meet or beat last summer:
• We did it before
• We have vaccines to help us now
• Summer-Summer comparison is fair
I propose this clear, balanced scorecard.
• Mix of leading & lagging indicators.
• Existing, official data sources.
• Measures of success or trouble we already know
• Simple to update or replicate
I propose targets from 1 July 2020 (Canada Day).
• We were out of lockdown
• We thought we had #COVID19 under control then
• Symbolic date for all 🇨🇦 (like 4th of July 🇺🇸)
• Achievable again, especially with vaccines
I am sharing my buying experience, including links and prices, to help others. H/T @RajBhardwajMD for the Marketplace story.
The new Variants of Concern are much more transmissible (stickier) than the coronavirus we encountered last spring. We need better than the usual masks.
Demand >> supply for true N95 respirators for healthcare workers exposed to infected people, so @cbcmarketplace looked at respirators meeting Chinese KN95 & Korean KF94.
These are now available because #ZeroCOVID countries no longer need as many.
My doubts began right away, when I saw pallets stacked on their sides inside the walk-in freezer.
But my concerns are not just limited to violations of Alberta's Occupational Health & Safety Code, meant to protect workers, and the risk of damaging vials.
For another example, why is this Ultracold Freezer so warm that the Manager, Immunization Business, a Registered Nurse, is able to touch it with her bare hand?
It is not below -70ºC as required for the Pfizer vaccine. How can DM Wynnyk claim Alberta is prepared without this?
Last week I decided to dig into the life-threatening Precondition & Excuses from Alberta Health to resist enabling the National COVID-19 Exposure Notification App.
Frustrated with the lack of answers, or evasive answers from provincial elected officials, municipal officials and provincial media have been asking @CMOH_Alberta.