11 Jun, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Quick back of envelope calculation for how #ElSalvador could generate enough \$BTC from mining to easily pay off interest & principle from \$1B “Volcano Bond”

Annual BTC mining rewards = \$13B (assuming \$40k price), ignore fees

Electricity used = 120TWh

Hours in year = 8760

1/N
Therefore Power used = 120TWh / 8760 = 13.7GW

@nayibbukele said they ALREADY have a 95MW thermal facility drilled

So ASSUMING just this 95MW can be all used for BTC mining, and assume an average efficiency of miners, this can generate:

95/13700 = 0.7pc of rewards

2/N
0.7pc * \$13B total rewards = \$95m worth of BTC

And this is just ONE geothermal facility, they have more…

3/N
Let’s assume they can get hold of S19’s, they each take 3.3kW of power. So they would need:

95MW / 3.3kW = 29,000 S19’s which are ROUGHLY \$5k each (secondhand), which would be \$145m

Ofc course there are other costs in building the facility

4/N
So let’s assume \$200m all in cost, and so then \$800m can be used to build 4x MORE facilities; and if done that would generate:

\$95m * 5 = \$475m of BTC per year

Easily enough to pay a say 5pc yield on the \$1B (\$50m) and also pay off the principal of \$1B over 2-3 years

5/N
We have assumed the S19’s work efficiently for the 2-3 years of operation, but we can’t know the future precisely, so let’s just assume this

There will be running costs too, but trying to keep this really simple!

Total MW required would be 95MW * 5 = 475MW

6/N
475MW for reference is a pretty normal large power station (not super large which are several GW); or a few medium geothermal plants

How many more geo sites does SLV have?

But if you can have in-effect free electricity then BTC mining is very profitable

7/N
Of course the capital costs could have to been depreciated faster, but let’s not get into that, there is RISK still; this is not a risk free project!

8/N
Please could people who are in the industry like @MartyBent let me know if the numbers are roughly correct?

The cost of secondhand S19s is a huge assumption (\$5000 each?), and I am not an expert on the latest market prices for these!

9/N
In conclusion, of course this can work, they have free electricity & BTC mining is economic when you DON’T have free electricity (but instead very cheap say 2-3c / kWh)

Thought it was fun to lay it out in a ROUGH MANNER to illustrate this is very much feasible

FIN

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# More from @Darky999

1 Feb
Vlad on the @elonmusk Clubhouse now is sinking as usual, he hasn't apologised...

AGAIN...

SMH, 101 in how not to deal with a crisis

How hard is it to say 'sorry, we let you down' as the first thing, not 'I'm the Chief Executive Officer of Robinhood'

Elon immediately cringed
But Vlad just disclosed that Robinhood has had a \$3B request for cash from clearing house (I think) which they didn't have (this is new info I think), hence the raise - we all knew this, but not the number

At the heart of the \$3B was the increase in VAR (as many have noted)
\$3B request from the NSCC (Nat Sec Clearing Corp) and then they called the NSCC and it was reduced to \$1.4B
1 Feb
On this now, room already full with 6k folk!
Elon just invited Vlad from RH into the room :D
First topic is 'when will we get to Mars', and @elonmusk answer is 5.5 years...

That would be pretty bullish for space travel!
1 Feb
This wasn't picked up much (that I saw)...

This is Al Kelly, Chairman & CEO of Visa Inc talking about Crypto in their earnings call 3 days ago...

As @elonmusk said, it's inevitable (well that might have been about crypto, not sure!)

@RaoulGMI
"Today, 35 of the leading digital currency platforms and wallets have already chosen to issue Visa, including coin-based Crypto.com, BlackFi, Fold and BitPanda. These wallet relationships represent the potential for more than 50 million Visa credentials...."
"The next leading network has a fraction of that. And it goes without saying, to the extent a specific digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there's no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today."

CEO Visa Inc
17 Sep 20
RANT:

So Powell mini-crashes stocks as markets want MOAR from him (markets never get enough do they...)

This freaked out Trump, so predictably he touts vaccines for almost immediate release (soon they will have been FDA approved in the PAST from now... 😬)

1/N

@HRGPFOREVER
But pump didn't work, markets know it's just BS talk...

OH GOD NAZZY IS DOWN!

So Trump has to be Pelosi's best bud (he finds really hard to do), but he won't speak with Pelosi as he just can't (for some unknown reason a POTUS can't speak to another politician... OK 🤡)

2/N
So Moooonooooochin gets to be the go-between, and he actually can talk with Pelosi without one of them marching out in DISGUST AS THE OTHER SIDE IS BEING UNFAIR (cry cry cry 😢😭)

And Trump wants MOAR stimulus right now, RIGHT NOW GODDAMMIT!

BIG CHECKS!!!

3/N
16 Sep 20
#bitcoin volatility ranges vs other assets a mini thread:

(as measured by the BVOL index = rolling 30-day annualised vol)

Dec 2017: 81-162
Sept 2020 (last 30 days, mid-Aug to mid-Sept): 27-44

Price c. \$10,000 both times

Which is more of a bubble?!

1/N
Sept 2020 (last 30 days) volatility for:

Silver (VXSLV): 46-84
GDX (VXGDX): 41-52
Nasdaq (VXN): 27-48
Gold (GVZ): 20-28
Oil (OVX): 30-59

Bitcoin (BVOL): 27-44

So Silver and GDX, Nasdaq and Oil are currently more volatile

Gold is less volatile

2/N
Compared to December 2017, or indeed any time around that time, \$BTC is now far less volatile in general (everything had a vol spike in March 2020), although still TOO volatile to rival gold, but give it time..

3/N
15 Sep 20
Quick macro thoughts... Will probs be a mini thread...

S&P (or QQQ...) still undecided, could go either way; lower vol right now means insurance (i.e. long vol trades) is cheaper

Duration (30Y USTs) hanging at 1.4%, VXTLT <15, and as low as since pre-COVID (probs bullish)
Gold has been coiling up again, GVZ went below 20 briefly on Monday, it's c. 21 now, if it breaks down to mid-teens again (like July) then could be a great buying opportunity for LEAP calls (lock in the low vol)

Oil is struggling, lots of debate on supply/demand, and on USD...
If Oil stays <\$40 then CPI should be softer in Q4; also note OVX is c. 40 (was >50 a few days ago), and materially higher vol than August when 32

Would recommend watching Oil closely, as the ramifications to CPI (with a lag) are important for entire Inf vs Def debate