1/ Using data of 16 #COVID19 variants from 42 countries in a multilevel multinomial model I compared the growth rate of these variants.
The estimated growth advantage of Delta compared to Alpha is 57%/week (95% credible interval: 49-66%).
The estimated growth advantage of Delta compared to Alpha is 57%/week (95% credible interval: 49-66%).
2/ Growth advantage of the Delta variant is heterogeneous between countries (Denmark < 36%/week, Portugal > 86%/week compared to Alpha). This might be due to heterogeneous data quality, heterogeneous vaccine effects, different levels of restrictions, etc.
3/ Extrapolation of these numbers for 42 different countries.
Left: all 16 variants
Right: 6 most prevalent variants
Top: linear scale
Bottom: logit scale
Left: all 16 variants
Right: 6 most prevalent variants
Top: linear scale
Bottom: logit scale
4/ The growth advantage of Delta still looks like a quite huge and (somewhat) unexpected increase compared to previously discovered variants with a growth advantage.
5/ Source data: github.com/hodcroftlab/co…
Estimates of @TWenseleers and my estimates for UK and USA are very much the same 👇
Estimates of @TWenseleers and my estimates for UK and USA are very much the same 👇
https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1400811902138204168
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