What's wrong with Biostatistics is analogously related to the question that was put by the Queen to the Economists at the LSE after the GFC.
The Queen wondered why didn't the economists see it coming?
of course, health pandemics are different, but, the statistical models are not
The Queen wondered why didn't the economists see it coming?
of course, health pandemics are different, but, the statistical models are not
Scholars working in the biomedical sciences, epidemiology, and #biostatistics spheres, rely on mathematical and applied statistical computing based on modelling assumptions that rely on historical data set observations.
The past cannot and will predict the future with certitude.
The past cannot and will predict the future with certitude.
Even with Quantum Computing, Data Sciences, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, or any other form of computer-aided Predictive Analytics, scholars across the domains of natural and social sciences will never be able to capture the emergence of rare #Black #Swan #Risks!
I guess the Late Alan Watts was right when he said, and I paraphrase it as follows->
The most perfect prediction of the future is the past.
The most perfect prediction of the future is the past.
Human Consciousness aka awareness, which is a measure of the power of the brain, needs to be enhanced!
Relying only on the modus operandi of established knowledge across certain domains will not suffice.
Prediction needs the development of human brain power and wise reasoning.
Relying only on the modus operandi of established knowledge across certain domains will not suffice.
Prediction needs the development of human brain power and wise reasoning.
To #predict, we need to enter into another realm?
A realm of impossibility?
A realm that cannot be observed by the simple-minded observer?
A realm that emulates outcomes based on imagination combined with perception?
These questions can be answered by #Complexity Science Models?
A realm of impossibility?
A realm that cannot be observed by the simple-minded observer?
A realm that emulates outcomes based on imagination combined with perception?
These questions can be answered by #Complexity Science Models?
of course, until the time applied statistician modellers, quantum physicists, actuarial stochasticians, and/or algorithmic computing experts discover some new probability density function, which can capture the fattest of the fatter tails, we can give #parapsychology a chance!
I have met such people with paranormal powers, who can actually interpret dreams, read into other person minds, and predict outcomes with great accuracy.
How do they do it?
I would advise you to watch the series "Strange Powers" by Arthur C. Clarke to broaden your horizons.
How do they do it?
I would advise you to watch the series "Strange Powers" by Arthur C. Clarke to broaden your horizons.
And it's not just parapsychology that studies human cognitive, emotive & behavioural dispositions under exceptional circumstances, but, additionally, Animal Psychology, can be useful in understanding NAT CAT Events.
How do animals sense and predict disasters and hazards?
How do animals sense and predict disasters and hazards?
Well, one day someone will write a book on the Anthropology and Sociology of Predictions.
It is a fascinating subject, which goes beyond mathematics, actuarial science, and other branches of statistical computing.
It's what we say more than what meets the eye!
#Complexity
#AI
It is a fascinating subject, which goes beyond mathematics, actuarial science, and other branches of statistical computing.
It's what we say more than what meets the eye!
#Complexity
#AI
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