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James Stephenson

@ICannot_Enough

13 Jun

Here is my 69-tweet 2021 Q2 Tesla forecast thread.
🤓 $TSLA

This tweet is a summary
The next 16 tweets are some pretty charts
The 3 tweets that follow are summary tables
The last 49 tweets in the thread are my detailed forecast that builds up to these totals

/1

Here's what Tesla's total revenue looks like by year and quarter. These are *actuals*, not my forecast.

It's hard to believe people are still selling this company short and saying "the growth story is over".

I am projecting this kind of revenue growth to continue.
/2

Here's a S3XY chart that shows total global vehicle deliveries by model and quarter.

I am projecting 218K deliveries in Q2 and 917K for the full year 2021.
/3

Read 69 tweets

James Stephenson

@ICannot_Enough

11 May

Hey— just checking:

Has *anyone* apologized for tweeting misinformation {see thread} about that crash that the NTSB investigated (where they verified that Elon’s tweet was correct and Autopilot was not at fault)?

In Tommy’s $TSLA cash-tagged tweet, he said it “was autopilot all the way.”

Alex said no one was in the driver seat, “because Tesla did not implement a camera-based Driver Monitoring System.”

Read 12 tweets

James Stephenson

@ICannot_Enough

9 May

@elonmusk

Here’s @elonmusk ‘s SNL monologue:

https://twitter.com/EveryElonReply/status/1391247830598225924

Here’s the “Gen-Z Hospital” sketch:

Here’s the “Every Conversation With People You Haven’t Seen Since Before Quarantine Started” sketch:

Read 8 tweets

James Stephenson

@ICannot_Enough

15 Mar

So I looked up all the $TSLA price targets on TipRanks.com along with each analyst's star rating (how good their past predictions have been on a 5-pt scale).

Then I just put them on a bubble chart, weighting each price target by the analyst's rating.

Notice anything?

Lots of possible takeaways, as with many data visualizations, but the one I'd like to draw your attention to is:

Without exception- *every analyst* who thinks $TSLA ought to be trading above $800/share is an above-average analyst.

And- again, without exception- every one of the below-average analysts thinks $TSLA is worth less than $800/share.

Read 4 tweets

James Stephenson

@ICannot_Enough

14 Feb

I have updated my Tesla forecast and charts. 🤓

For those who don't want to read the whole 69-tweet thread:
slides 1-3 summarize the headline numbers & metrics
slides 4-20 are a bunch of pretty $TSLA charts (don't miss them!)
slides 21-69 are my detailed forecast model

1 of 69

I'm forecasting 178,254 deliveries in Q1 and almost 875K deliveries for 2021. That's 75% deliveries growth YOY.

Model S Plaid deliveries will be low in Q1, but ASP will be high. Most of 2021's growth will be Model Y.

I don't expect many Semi or Cybertruck deliveries.

2 of 69

Plaid S & X, growing Model Y sales mix, and increasing sales of FSD should improve total Automotive gross margin and thus profitability.

I have pushed the deferred tax asset to Q4 but have low confidence that's when it will occur. I just have to forecast it somewhere.

3 of 69

Read 69 tweets