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Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
@chasewnelson
Jun 21, 2021 • 6 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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今天在 🇹🇼 #天下 @CWM_en 雜誌已刊出： "台灣抗疫成就 遠距工作、創新檢測成關鍵 "。 我與 @cptwei 寫了一篇有關建議 #Taiwan 對抗升 #COVID19 疫情的文章，主要是落實遠距工作、新的科學性篩檢方式。所有工作性質可以遠距辦公的員工，都必須改為遠距工作。重點如下 ⬇️ 1/6 opinion.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/5…
當前的台灣可說是提供了病毒滋養的溫床 — 尤其SARS-CoV-2 #Alpha (B.1.1.7)。依賴症狀的檢疫措施將會漏掉至少 50% 的病毒感染者。新型冠狀病毒會懸浮在空氣中並隨時間經過充斥整個房間。像辦公室這種通風不良的空調環境尤其危險。2/6
非必要地進公司辦公，會增加原可避免的傳染機會。特別是工作上的接觸通常是（應雇主要求）而非自願地，從四面八方聚集大量人群，並且持續相當長一段時間。應為社區人流居高不下。因此增加遠距辦公，我們確信 是控制這波爆發非常關鍵的政策。3/6
依賴症狀的檢疫措施將會漏掉至少 50% 的病毒感染者。因此，需要擴展測試。有兩個選項可以大幅增加檢測量能和節省成本： 1）是使用檢體群檢測（pool testing），這是指兩個以上的樣本在PCR前混合； 2）即污水檢測。這個努力會有持續的回報，因為在可見的未來，新型冠狀病毒很可能會在人群中流通。4/6
比起現行柔性鼓勵公司轉為遠距工作，我們呼籲政策制定者提供更多誘因和輔導。政策必須允許匿名舉報、保護移民並執行工人的權利，應為 也必須認知廣大勞工會因為害怕上級報復，而不敢回報各種流弊。5/6
我們相信台灣可以繼續成為預防新冠肺炎的領導者，也必須如此，因為世界其他國家也正引頸企盼。🙏 感謝 @catielila 構思這件作品； @mitchlinmusic 負責視覺和編輯； @hsianglingg 翻譯； @kwangliu 編輯； 和 @Jim_Reynolds02 和許多其他人的出色反饋。台灣加油！6/6

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More from @chasewnelson

Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
Jun 11, 2023
My first #COVID19🦠 infection: a description.

SUMMARY: I was positive for 12 days. Day 1 had debilitating headache, fever, and fatigue. I was functional by day 5, followed by steady improvement. Post-nasal drip continues to the present, weeks later.

Some observations. 1/11
ME: male, 34yo, healthy, 4x vaccinated. My last boost (Moderna 2v) was 252 days before getting infected.

VIRUS: likely Omicron XBB or BA.2.75.

WHAT HELPED: Advil, neti pot, water, sleep, vitamins, fruit. Lemon, honey, cinnamon, and a dash of cayenne pepper in warm water. 2/11 Image
WHERE ACQUIRED: unknown. Suspect a coffeeshop 4 days prior, where several individuals were coughing, some maskless.

DAY 0: the day before I fell ill, I had throat discomfort, as if a piece of food were stuck in tonsil area. This abated midday and I thought all was well. 3/11 Image
Read 11 tweets
Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
Mar 22, 2023
Nice science by @flodebarre & team in the raccoon dog report, providing important details and (in my view) weak evidence for a wildlife origin of SARS-CoV-2.

However, relevant evidence and reasons for preferring scenario A over B below are not discussed & I remain agnostic.
1/14
Favoring a wildlife origin (scenario A), I found the following most compelling:
🔹SARS-CoV-2+ environmental samples are clustered in the area where susceptible wildlife were held
🔹sample Q61 contained sequence with 100% match to raccoon dog but none with 100% match to human
2/14
Unfortunately, sampling locations were not randomly distributed, but were intentionally concentrated in the area with susceptible wildlife.

Because all samples are spatially concentrated, positive samples are spatially concentrated.

Thus, I find this point to be circular.
3/14
Read 14 tweets
Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
Jun 1, 2022
Data from the @TaiwanCDC confirm that #COVID19 vaccines help against #Omicron.

Specifically, the rate of death decreases with each additional vaccine dose, for every age group in the population.

This is despite numerous assumptions biased against vaccine effectiveness.
1/13
First, consider the population of Taiwan, stratified by age and vaccination status. The single largest group is 30-49 year-olds with 3 doses (dark green).

This is the pattern of deaths one would expect if deaths were random, i.e., if both vaccination and age had no effect.
2/13
Second, consider the observed deaths. The single largest group is 75+ year-olds with 0 doses.

Thus, the observed pattern of deaths differs drastically from random expectation.

For example, 75+ year-olds with 0 doses are a small demographic but dominate the deaths.
3/13
Read 17 tweets
Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
May 10, 2022
I was recently fortunate to be interviewed by @niccijsmith at @TelGlobalHealth regarding #Taiwan's #COVID situation.

Unfortunately, certain media outlets used my observations to play politics.

Instead of spreading hype, here's what I wish they'd covered.
1/
Everyone should know:
1⃣COVID is airborne
2⃣the top symptoms of COVID-19 resemble a cold
3⃣some people develop long COVID
4⃣risks from COVID-19 vs. vaccines
5⃣rapid antigen tests are a good indicator of whether you're contagious, but can be negative even when you’re infected
2/
Some good news:
1⃣the population of Taiwan is relatively freshly vaccinated
2⃣Omicron may be slightly less severe than previous variants, like Delta (but remains highly dangerous to the unvaccinated)
3⃣Taiwan has antiviral medications
3/
Read 9 tweets
Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
Dec 24, 2021
In a world with #Omicron (a rare mutational event), the drug #molnupiravir (a mutagen) was just authorized by the @US_FDA despite:

1⃣ NO estimate of the number of mutations it causes per virus

2⃣ NO estimate of onward viral transmission while on the drug
fda.gov/news-events/pr…
@US_FDA Given #molnupiravir's usage to treat #COVID19 is inevitable, what can be done to prevent the potential acceleration of #SARSCoV2 variants?
1⃣patients should strictly ISOLATE WHILE TAKING, especially in the first days on the drug

2⃣ALL DOSES should be taken PRECISELY as directed
@US_FDA Our own reasons for these recommendations are presented here 👇
Read 5 tweets
Chase W. Nelson 倪誠志 Profile picture
Dec 2, 2021
🧵The @US_FDA's materials on @Merck's #Molnupiravir and its potential to induce problematic #SARSCoV2 variants are HERE:

📄section 4.3.2.5 (pp. 30-36)
👉fda.gov/media/154418/d…

📺at 2h51m, 3h46m, 4h5m, 5h12m, 7h32m
👉

Observations to follow.
1/n
@US_FDA @Merck First, @Merck and the @US_FDA panelists have done excellent work compiling and analyzing the available data. This was not an easy vote (13 YES/10 NO).

However, specifically on the potential for molnupiravir to induce new viral variants, the results only augment my concerns.
2/n
@US_FDA @Merck 1⃣MUTATION VS. SELECTION. The materials repeatedly confuse mutation and selection (e.g., "The Spike protein is already under evolutionary pressure with or without molnupiravir", 3hr).

Contrarily, the concern is this drug is a mutagen and provides RAW MATERIAL, not selection.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets

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