Excess deaths in #Karnataka were nearly 6 times (5.77) the COVID19 death toll from April 2020 to May 2021. That's close to the undercount factor in Tamil Nadu (6.2). My colleague Sharath S & I find based on monthwise #CRS data from 2015 to 2021 (1/n) thehindu.com/news/national/…
Karnataka recorded an estimated 1,67,888 excess deaths over the baseline mortality for five years (2015-19) in the pre-pandemic years. Graph shows the excess deaths peaks both in the 1st and in the 2nd wave (2/n)
Here's a comparison with the estimated undercount factors in other States for whom a similar exercise was done. #excessdeaths. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu with an undercount factor of 4.7/6.5 were better off than A.P. (34) & MP (42) for similar periods (3/n)
We also looked at the #excess deaths in the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike (Greater Bangalore municipal area). There were an estimated 31,029 excess deaths, based on comparisons with 2015-2019 data, for an undercount factor of 2.3 (4/n)
This (2.3) figure was lower than that of Chennai (5.6). Other cities such as Hyderabad (17.5-30.5 - estimated) and Kolkata (4.5) also registered higher undercounts for 2021 alone. Estimates were calculated by @the_hindu based on excess deaths in the cities' municipal limits (5/n)
.@DrLahariya explains why govts needs to focus on the excess mortality estimations to strengthen their pandemic response in @the_hindu #oped - thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/… (n/n)
Uggh.. "govts need* to focus*

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More from @vrsrini

22 Jun
#Vaccination reality check: Yesterday marked the highest number of jabs in a single day in India. thehindu.com/news/national/… But as this shows, the peak seems artificial: scroll.in/article/998156…. Remains to be seen if supply constraints have been eased to maintain this pace. (1/n)
The pace of vaccination has definitely picked up but there are miles to go before targets are reached. Here is what, that remains to be done. (2/n) @the_hindu #Datapoint by @i_sumantsen and @nihalani_jasmin
Here's where we stand in terms of the estimated % of population that has been vaccinated so far, countrywide, and age-group wise. Only 3.7% of all Indians have been fully vaccinated & 17.2% have got atleast 1 dose (3/n) (See this tracker live on thehindu.com)
Read 8 tweets
7 Jun
Context on why Centre finally heeds #SupremeCourt (after being questioned over its irrational policy) & the Opposition on centralised procurement of the vaccines: No. of people with 2 doses as a % of population is just 3.3% (See live tracker in thehindu.com) (1/n)
The supply from the Centre to the States was around 24.6 crores and the utilisation was around 23.11 crores (including wastage) which is roughly 93.94% of supply. Essentially States used nearly all of the Centre's supply (2/n)
Several #States raised global tenders to get procure vaccines from abroad. So far (IIRC), not a single vaccine manufacturer abroad has agreed to sell to #States. (3/n)
Read 11 tweets
15 May 20
First, a lockdown is announced with a 4 hour notice period and without any preparations for the massive job losses for daily wagers/ casual labourers, which most migrant workers are in many Indian cities. (1/n)
Then, when workers ran out of jobs, essentials, social nets, they couldn't avail transport services to go back to their native places which offered them atleast a semblance of a social net as transport was shut down. Some buses were started and then they were shut. (2/n)
Then workers were asked to avail facilities provided by State governments where food and shelter were to be given to them. Data showed that except for Kerala & Delhi (to some extent), other States couldn't set this up sufficiently for such people. (3/n)
Read 10 tweets
19 Mar 20
Here's what I know about #Covid19 & #India- 1) We aren't testing people who haven't had a travel history from abroad or have possibly been in contact with those with such a history. Except, reportedly for some 826 random people with flu symptoms that #ICMR tested & found no +ves
2) The number of cumulative cases of #Covid19 in India are as of now 180, with 161 active cases. This is a relatively low number compared to countries in the northern hemisphere. This could be low because community transmission hasn't taken off or we haven't really tested enough
3) If the assumption is the former, then India has among the flattest curves for rise in cases above 100 compared to many other countries. The only comparables are city-States like Hong Kong & Singapore.
Read 8 tweets

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