2) The number of cumulative cases of #Covid19 in India are as of now 180, with 161 active cases. This is a relatively low number compared to countries in the northern hemisphere. This could be low because community transmission hasn't taken off or we haven't really tested enough
3) If the assumption is the former, then India has among the flattest curves for rise in cases above 100 compared to many other countries. The only comparables are city-States like Hong Kong & Singapore.
4) The take-away from this assumption could be that India, being a largely tropical country has been spared (so far) from the worst effects of the pandemic, as has other countries in Africa, Latin America and Australia
5) Hopefully there is some peer reviewed research study that finds the relative impact of the virus under different climactic conditions to decisively suggest a link between this and the first assumption
6) If the assumption is the latter - "not enough testing", then India stares at the beginning of the exponential rise and would have to prepared for the worst.
7) Our state's dismal record in investment in health infrastructure and services will affect us severely if this exponential rise plays itself out. "Social distancing" in a densely populated country like ours will be well be nigh impossible.
8) Lets hope that the first assumption bears itself out. If not, we must work towards enough mitigation of an exponential rise by sufficiently protecting the elderly & the infirm, who are the most vulnerable to the worst effect of the virus.
