Quick recap on @avacta #AVCT's #COVID19 LFT.

By the end of next week, the Co intends to have put out a comprehensive TU.

Critically, it will include the sensitivity / specificity of its #COVID19 LFT for the first time. Analytical data collected so far suggests that it'll...1/14
...be the most accurate LFT in the world. However, it is not a given that analytical data will be replicated in the clinical data. Likely, but not definite.

Let's assume it IS replicated. #AVCT will CE Mark its LFT next month, and immediately begin selling it.

@avacta #AVCT does not have its own manufacturing capacity (yet). It will be contracting manufacturers to make its test.

It's lined up @Abingdon_Health #ABDX, @bbi_solutions and @mologic / GAD, and is working with @OmegaDiagnostic #ODX too (although not publicly announced). 3/14
Moreover, #AVCT is in talks with other manufacturers across the globe to increase capacity further.

As reagent owner (the most valuable component of the LFT) and soon-to-be holder of the CE Mark, #AVCT will be test owner and thus will (IMO) likely enjoy the lion's share... 4/14
...of profits on its LFTs sold.

In #AVCT's TU in the next 9 sessions, I think it likely that we will also hear about the lay-user study. Once completed, this will enable it to sell to retail, i.e. into the home. The market for this will last many YEARS, I think.

However, because at-home #COVID19 LFTs are not available yet (at least within the UK), I feel that many do not appreciate just how enormous this market will be. The idea is that most households will have boxes of these LFTs in their bathrooms / medicine cabinets.

#AVCT's... 6/14
... technology, Affimers (#AVCT holds global patent protection on their usage in Diagnostics products), are - in layman's terms - enhanced antibodies. It is plausible that no other tech will be able to compete.

As such, @avacta has a good chance of launching the most... 7/14
...accurate LFT in the world next month - which is encircled by a very wide, very deep moat (patent expires in the 2030s!). I cover the advantages of Affimers over other technologies such as monoclonal antibodies and Aptamers in detail here: 8/14

How big is this market, globally?

Not a clue - but likely to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars for at least the next 2 years.

If the test performs in a clinical setting as expected, #AVCT's share of this market will be constrained only by how quickly it takes... 9/14
...#AVCT to sign up further manufacturing partners.

Consider the probability of the analytical data being replicated in in the clinical data soon to be published.

Now consider that a successful test would be THE leading product in this new $100bn+ pa market.

#AVCT's mkt cap: £375m.

The risk / reward simply does not stack up at present. For me, following conversations with industry insiders and other research, the chance of replicating the analytical performance in a clinical setting is MUCH higher than 50%.

And the upside... 11/14
...for #AVCT's SP in the even of a successful LFT is MANY multiples of 100%.

The R/R is just wrong, in my view.

Of course, this does not account for #AVCT's other interests, both in the Diagnostics div and the Therapeutics div.

Why the undervaluation? Besides a lack... 12/14
...of understanding by many market participants of the size of the global market for at-home LFTs soon to materialise, I think #AVCT is being punished due to delays in product development, along with some questionable recent business decisions.

All water under the bridge, 13/14
...if the clinical data that is due before the end of next week is as we all hope it will be!

I remain as optimistic as ever.

The cashflows that the LFT will deliver will prove transformational for #AVCT's Therapeutic division too. And the potential there is even greater. 14/14

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More from @MylesMcNulty

17 Nov 20
I have had so many calls and messages about the fall in #AVCT @avacta's share price over recent weeks.

Let me be very clear: I am entirely unconcerned by this fall.

As the below Tweet shows, I had a long-term target of ~£20 BEFORE Avacta announced its #COVID19 workstreams. 1/n
The issue is - as is becoming more and more often the case in the world of micro-caps - people are buying companies like #AVCT without having first decided if it is a trade or an investment position.

I cover the importance of this distinction in my profile picture. 2/n
I myself am a trader, professionally, and actually hold very few long term investments. The volatility and lack of quality, accessible research renders AIM an excellent trading ground.

But @avacta #AVCT is an investment. In the next few weeks, it'll be submitting... 3/n
Read 14 tweets
9 Nov 20
An extraordinary day. Firstly, fabulous initial data from Pfizer's vaccine, demonstrating it's 90% effective. An immense scientific breakthrough and a boon for humanity.

From an investment perspective (the raison d'être of this account!): a day of joy and misery, equally! 1/16
Global indices absolutely rocketed - 27/100 FTSE100 Cos ended the session at 10%+. Most sectors were up, whilst precious metals miners and #COVID19-centric stocks got obliterated. The latter group included treatment and testing stocks, and at home/online entertainment/living 2/16
Personally, my PF took an almighty spanking, owing to #AVCT being my largest position by a distance, and also having recently opened a position in #SNG.

A high quality vaccine was always the key risk to #COVID19 plays, but for me, that has always been a medium term risk. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
9 Nov 20
Exciting development for #N4P today - Launch of Nuvec Oncology Treatment Programme.

This potentially opens up a third colossal market, after vaccine delivery x2 (injection and oral).

The really exciting thing about this Co is that its asset, Nuvec, is already developed and..1/4
...largely refined. It now need only prove consistent in-vivo success for its three target applications (oncology injection; vaccine injection; vaccine oral), and it can start out-licensing Nuvec.

And that's the core of the investment proposition: Nuvec is a platform tech. 2/4
It can be licensed out to multiple parties for multiple targets/applications. #N4P will receive upfront and milestone payments as the licensee takes the drug / vaccine (using Nuvec as the delivery platform) through the clinic.

N4P's cost base is exceptionally low; yet... 3/4
Read 4 tweets
8 Nov 20
At home antigen testing for #COVID19.

Detection of pre-symptomatic / asymptomatic cases - to a high degree of accuracy - is key.

99% specificity is a must, and ideally sensitivity of 92-93%+.

There should also be a method of logging the result in an objective manner...1/n
...elsewise individuals with positive results could disregard government instructions and go out for work / socialising regardless.

@avacta #AVCT's Affimers are an antibody mimetic - designed to overcome the limitations of monoclonal antibodies.

The evidence indicates... 2n
...that Affimer-based lateral flow tests will likely have a higher specificity than mAb-based LFTs, and possibly higher sensitivity too. Moreover, they are rapid to develop, cheaper to manufacture, and are robust (a benefit both for supply chain issues and for shelf-life).

Read 5 tweets
27 Sep 20
#AVCT interims tomorrow.

Comprehensive updates on all work streams of the Therapeutics and Diagnostics divisions will be provided.

Naturally, the content will likely be dominated by the various #COVID19 products under development - and of those, many market participants... 1/n
...(esp. new holders) will only have eyes for the LFT.

I think it’s important to appreciate the number of short term traders - and nervous retail investors - there are in #AVCT at present.

In my view, the near-term SP movement (which I think will be strong, either way)... 2/n
...will be driven by one very simple - but critical - matter: whether #AVCT has been permitted to disclose in its interims the UK Gov’s involvement in the rollout of the LFT.

I think the majority will agree that that involvement is beyond question.

Project #Moonshot... 3/n
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep 20
New nano-cap position taken via placing: #BIOM @BiomePlastics.

A brief intro, with in depth notes to follow in due course:

BIOM has two operating divisions: Bioplastics (biodegradable / compostable plastics) and Stanelco RF Technologies (advanced radio frequency systems).

Interims out today, along with a placing at 120p for £1.1m gross. Assuming a successful GM, mkt cap at the current SP of 165p will be £6.1m.

Net cash post GM will be ~£1.8m, so enterprise value at 165p will be ~£4.3m.

My investment is solely based on the Bioplastics div..

..which is a rapidly growing biz operating in a rapidly expanding market that I believe will become an increasingly hot topic going forward.

I'll be posting more about the products and target markets in due course, but here's a good place to start:


Read 11 tweets

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