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J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
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23 Jun, 4 tweets, 3 min read
CRYSTAL BALL: Some takeaways from what we have so far of the #NYC primary, notes on #IASen, and a few polling observations. From me, @kkondik, and @ParakramKarnik.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
To be clear, the "Second Place" map isn't a "second preference" map -- we won't know that for a while, but I thought it would still be interesting to look at.
This first point is probably the most stereotypical Election Twitter acknowledgement I’ve ever put on a map.
Also from me today: our take on 64% of Iowans wanting "someone new" over Grassley. We think that overstates his vulnerability, if he runs. I use a few other examples from recent Senate races, but Bill Nelson's 2012 election seemed to be a fair parallel. #IASen

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More from @JMilesColeman

J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
16 Jun
POV: You're Scott Brown having a nightmare
Since it's relevant tonight, one of my favorite political documentaries -- '14 Women', about the women in the Senate in 2005/2006 -- is on YouTube.
A big part of the documentary was about Sen. Landrieu's work on hurricane recovery -- this was shortly after Katrina. Here she is giving Lincoln and Cantwell a tour. She wanted to make sure as many members as possible saw the destruction.
Read 14 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
2 Jun
Stansbury's overperformance is cutting across the board. Both of these districts are whiter & more college educated McCain -> Biden seats.

In the most heavily-Hispanic legislative district (HD-14), Stansbury's 77%-21% basically matches Obama 2008. It was only 70% Biden. #nm01
In the next two most Hispanic HDs in NM-1 (HDs 12 & 13), Stansbury is closer to Biden (winning by 32%-ish) than to Obama (+44%-ish). But fewer than 2K votes for each, so I'm emphasizing that 1) we could get more in and 2) specials can be hard to draw conclusions from.
In SD-11 (the most Hispanic state Senate seat in NM-1), Stansbury is splitting the difference, and that makes sense to me. (usual caveats apply)

2008: Obama +48%
2020: Biden +34%
2021: Stansbury +40%
Read 8 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
4 May
Q in my inbox: How would [insert area] vote?
Me: Well, here's the 2020 breakdown.
Twitter: How can you treat politics like a game like that!?
Are there people on here who do go a bit far with the 'game' aspect? Yes. But let's not pretend looking at the breakdowns/trends of an area can't be informative.

Some of us treat being interested in #s and wanting to help people as being mutually exclusive.
Like, I've had some people who work on campaigns -- who's hearts are into it -- show me hypothetical redistricting maps that they've done, or stuff like that.

My first reaction wasn't "well, you're treating it like a sport here..."
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
11 Feb
From me this morning: taking inventory of current/upcoming House vacancies. The Crystal Ball's ratings for special elections:

#LA02 Safe D
#LA05 Safe R
#TX06 Likely R

All three elections will use jungle primaries. OH-11 & NM-1 may also open up soon.
centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
And, of course, it wouldn't be an article from me without a Louisiana history lesson. Specifically, looking at how Julia Letlow’s #LA05 candidacy fits with a pattern (stories from @LamarWhiteJr & @RTMannJr are linked in). #lalege
If I'm discussing special elections that will take place in the next few months in my article, @skmoskowitz has a longer-term look at the 2022 House cycle. Seth's advice? Watch the generic ballot.

centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
10 Feb
Narrator: The 17 year-old's high hopes would be dashed a year later. Image
As you guys can see from the interactions, this was before anyone cared what I had to say.
This Facebook post was also the same month I joined Twitter so go figure.
Read 4 tweets
J. Miles Coleman Profile picture
30 Jan
PAIN
blue - obama -> biden
red - mccain-> trump
pink - obama -> trump
though a lot of light blue McCain -> Biden in Charlotte
Read 4 tweets

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