Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

One of my go to report for big picture understanding. It is worth reading, if not already read.

dni.gov/index.php/gt20…
1. "Human development, including health, education, and household prosperity, has made historic improvements in every region during the past few decades..
2. Many countries will struggle to build on and even sustain these successes.

3. More extreme storms, droughts, and floods; melting glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will accompany rising temperatures.
4. The impact will disproportionately fall on the developing world and poorer regions and intersect with environmental degradation to create new vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing risks to economic prosperity, food, water, health, and energy security.
5. ..several global economic trends, including rising national debt, a more complex and fragmented trading environment, a shift in trade, and new employment disruptions are likely to shape conditions within and between states.
6. Asian economies appear poised to continue decades of growth through at least 2030, although potentially slower. They are unlikely to reach the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or economic influence of existing advanced economies, including the United States and Europe.
7. State and nonstate rivals will vie for leadership and dominance in science and technology with potentially cascading risks and implications for economic, military, and societal security."
Pre-Pandemic State of the Middle Class #Income and #Debt
We have started getting evidence of how the #pandemic has affected the middle income families.

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More from @AnilKSood5

23 Jun
Preparing for the #Pandemic and accelerating #Growth by creating naturally high value-adding, low capital-intensity jobs in the healthcare sector: My perspective

financialexpress.com/opinion/how-to…

@EKumarSharma @FinancialXpress
A healthcare job creates a nominal value-added of ~Rs. 5.8 lakhs 1 per year, compared with ~4.40 lakhs for an average job in the Indian economy. In addition, it has backward linkages with much higher value-adding jobs in the pharmaceutical & medical equipment mfg. businesses.
A healthcare job requires an investment of ~ Rs. 9.1 lakh, compared to Rs. 10.1 lakh for an average Indian job. In other words, a healthcare job is a low capital intensity and high value-adding job.
Read 5 tweets
11 Jun
#Inflation & #Commodity #Prices

2 articles '09 & '21.
4 Charts US CPI, PPI

1. financialexpress.com/archive/FE-Edi…
2. reuters.com/article/us-met…

Why did '09 not sustain? Why do we think that 2020/21 will sustain?

@SahilKapoor @vijaybhambwani @Macro_Maniac_ @GoodGiffen @Determinedinvst ImageImageImageImage
Data Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, USA and IMF's Commodity Price Portal
An interesting side story

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 7 tweets
4 Jun
Financing of Healthcare in India
Moral as well as Economic Reasoning requires the #Government to increase its Share of Spend
Thread
My perspective @ETHealthWorld
health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/…

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @ramakumarr @grumpeoldman @ieuditmisra @Dinesh_Unni
1. “SDG1, which calls to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” could be in peril without UHC, as almost 90 million people are impoverished by health expenses every year.”
2. In India, we run a higher risk of impoverishing our people as more than 50% of healthcare expenditure is met by families.., with 60% of rural and 40% of urban families are having to borrow, sell assets or ask for contributions from family & friends to meet hospitalization exp.
Read 17 tweets
2 Jun
#Housing and Physical Living Conditions
@khilwani_karan @andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @Sabya_K @sritara
We have converted a large part of Urban India into terrible living spaces that don't even provide adequate breathing space- forget privacy.
1. Our policy, combined with the real-estate and construction industry practices has made housing completely out of reach for a vast majority of people in the urban areas,...
2. ...unless a family is willing to commit itself to lifetime of housing-driven indebtedness, but with no guarantee that they would not live a slum-like conditions in future.
Read 12 tweets
2 Jun
#EducationPolicy
Thread
@khilwani_karan @andymukherjee70 @sritara @kikumbhar
Ideally, I would support it with research data. But the issues are well known.
1. Our public and private education system is not effective in building capability among our young...
..and the public and private sector employers don’t want to invest in people (reflected in the proportion of contract workers at various levels)...
2. At the same time, we are running a parallel system of coaching classes and training institutes where the family spending on education and training ends up being way beyond their means, resulting in education-driven indebtedness growing by the day.
Read 19 tweets
30 May
Parliament's Standing Committee Report Extracts

We did know what was coming and what was not working

rajyasabha.nic.in/rsnew/Committe…

My faith in the role of Standing Committee is restored in part. Courtesy @chetnakum

Sharing the extracts are a thread.
"However, the Committee strongly feels that the threat of Covid-19 is still looming large on the country keeping in view the second and third wave in European countries and spike in Delhi. The Secretary,
Department of Health and Family Welfare also expressed concern over the...
possible spike in the incidence of the Covid cases due to super spreading forthcoming festive events in the
country and advent of the winter season.
Read 13 tweets

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