#Inflation in #India
1. While general level at 4.3% for May is close to the target, it is closer to 5% for all sub-groups other than Food & Beverages (3.2% in May).
2. It implies that core inflation is now within the target range, though > target of 4%. 3. Groups where pricing power is with producer show higher inflation (health, education, clothing & footwear, personal care, etc.)
4. Inflation for transport & communications is low, as the gov. & telecom industry is not exercising their PP in view of elections, as reported.

Today's conversation about Indonesia, Brazil & India reminded me of an article of Dec'22. It is born out of Shishir (@shishir1969) & my conversation.

ideassansideology.org/3867-2/

@Revhappy2 @hakuna060 @Sabya_K @sunithanatti
@CafeEconomics @andymukherjee70 @sritara @ramakumarr 1. India must grow at a higher pace, as it still houses one of the largest populations of poor people in the world, which can happen only if it increases its share of global value-added – a strategy that all large countries have used during last 50 years.

We argue that fiscal consolidation must wait for #India to avoid being trapped in a prolonged slow #economicgrowth trap.
@sunithanatti @NewIndianXpress

newindianexpress.com/web-only/2023/… 1. Household earnings drive consumption and investment and the savings provide the required risk-capital for businesses. Unless real earnings and savings rise, GDP growth rate will barely move an inch.

My #MentalModel for assessing India's Market Size
Inspired to share in view of discussion on Ford's exit.
livemint.com/auto-news/the-…

@andymukherjee70 @SahilKapoor @ramakumarr @CafeEconomics @sritara @rishikesha

1. India is low middle-income country with large inequality: Chart 2. Urban India generates 70-75% of GDP. business-standard.com/article/news-c….
3. If I create population-income groups, I get to know that Top 1% of earners have developed country per capita.
4. Middle India's Per Capita is < USD 1,500 or ~100K pa - HH income of < 500K pa

GDP Data: Looking back to see where we are!
Lot of ground to cover?

1. GDP is less than 2018-19. Higher by 2.39% from 2017-18. Nearly Static over 4 years.
2. PFCE is less than 2017-18. Consumers, the biggest contributors are struggling.

@SahilKapoor @dugalira @CafeEconomics 3. Govt. Final Cons Exp up by a CAGR of 3.75% over 4 years. Less than last year.

4. GFCF is less than 2018-19. CAGR of 0.82% over 4 years.

#NMP #Financing #infrastructure
In current situation, we run the 'risk of mispricing risk, even for de-risked assets'.
Why: It is not easy to estimate cash flows from infrastructure assets in an uncertain environment with limited clarity about eco policy and potential growth? I would host these assets in NIIF & do a Public issue for raising finance, so that the Indian public shares the upside, as they are ones who have been bearing the risk all these years. We need Indian HHs to start providing risk cap, if India has to grow.

#Leadership in a Growth-constrained, Information-Age #Economy
Reflecting on conversations 2018 Conclave where business & academic leaders had shared their insights on the constraints that global & the #Indian economy faces & possible solutions.
ideassansideology.org/engagements/le… 2. Demand was identified as the constraint on growth and wage/earnings growth was considered to be the solution. Pandemic has made it worse. But solution is still in growth in earnings - now more than ever.

#Agriculture #Earnings in #India
Thread
1. Farming is a fixed cost activity, with uncertainty of output. Cost of living is largely fixed for all of us.

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @Sabya_K @srinivasanravi @srirags @ieuditmisra @Roshanjnu @HarishRDave 2. Cost of living experiences structural shift as the economy grows.

3. Earnings benchmarked to rural cost of living do not allow us to make investment for building capability to take advantage of urban opportunities. Explained later while building a case for public spend.

Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World

One of my go to report for big picture understanding. It is worth reading, if not already read.

dni.gov/index.php/gt20… 1. "Human development, including health, education, and household prosperity, has made historic improvements in every region during the past few decades..

Preparing for the #Pandemic and accelerating #Growth by creating naturally high value-adding, low capital-intensity jobs in the healthcare sector: My perspective

financialexpress.com/opinion/how-to…

@EKumarSharma @FinancialXpress A healthcare job creates a nominal value-added of ~Rs. 5.8 lakhs 1 per year, compared with ~4.40 lakhs for an average job in the Indian economy. In addition, it has backward linkages with much higher value-adding jobs in the pharmaceutical & medical equipment mfg. businesses.

#Inflation & #Commodity #Prices

2 articles '09 & '21.
4 Charts US CPI, PPI

1. financialexpress.com/archive/FE-Edi…
2. reuters.com/article/us-met…

Why did '09 not sustain? Why do we think that 2020/21 will sustain?

@SahilKapoor @vijaybhambwani @Macro_Maniac_ @GoodGiffen @Determinedinvst Data Source: Bureau of Labour Statistics, USA and IMF's Commodity Price Portal

Financing of Healthcare in India
Moral as well as Economic Reasoning requires the #Government to increase its Share of Spend
Thread
My perspective @ETHealthWorld
health.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/…

@andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @sritara @ramakumarr @grumpeoldman @ieuditmisra @Dinesh_Unni 1. “SDG1, which calls to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” could be in peril without UHC, as almost 90 million people are impoverished by health expenses every year.”

#Housing and Physical Living Conditions
@khilwani_karan @andymukherjee70 @kikumbhar @Sabya_K @sritara
We have converted a large part of Urban India into terrible living spaces that don't even provide adequate breathing space- forget privacy. 1. Our policy, combined with the real-estate and construction industry practices has made housing completely out of reach for a vast majority of people in the urban areas,...

#EducationPolicy
Thread
@khilwani_karan @andymukherjee70 @sritara @kikumbhar
Ideally, I would support it with research data. But the issues are well known.
1. Our public and private education system is not effective in building capability among our young... ..and the public and private sector employers don’t want to invest in people (reflected in the proportion of contract workers at various levels)...

Parliament's Standing Committee Report Extracts

We did know what was coming and what was not working

rajyasabha.nic.in/rsnew/Committe…

My faith in the role of Standing Committee is restored in part. Courtesy @chetnakum

Sharing the extracts are a thread. "However, the Committee strongly feels that the threat of Covid-19 is still looming large on the country keeping in view the second and third wave in European countries and spike in Delhi. The Secretary,
Department of Health and Family Welfare also expressed concern over the...

Procurement: Extracts from Global Vaccine Procurement by @WHO + 2 articles with
Consolidate or Fragment?

@sritara @grumpeoldman @ajay_shah

1. Pooled procurement mechanisms lead to lower prices for 21 of 28 vaccines compared to self-procurement.

who.int/immunization/p… 2. Self-procuring MICs pay 2x more than non-Gavi MICs procuring through UNICEF and 1.5x more than PAHO RF-procuring countries.