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Kai Kupferschmidt

Follow @kakape

24 Jun, 9 tweets, 9 min read

@doctorsoumya

When I talked to @doctorsoumya for my recent story she was most concerned about the impact #deltavariant might have on African continent. “You could end up with explosive outbreaks”, she told me. Other researchers said the same.
So a quick thread on #covid19 situation in Africa:

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya While reported #SARSCoV2 infections and deaths from have been declining globally, Africa has been going in the other direction for several weeks now with surges in several countries like Uganda and the DRC.

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya As the most recent @WHO sitrep notes:
"The African Region reported over 132 000 new cases and over 1900 new deaths, a 39% and a 38% increase respectively compared to the previous week, the highest percentage increase reported globally”

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya @WHO “#COVID19 cases have risen for five consecutive weeks since the onset of the third wave on 3 May 2021. …
At the current rate of infections, the ongoing surge is set to surpass the previous one by early July”, says a press release just issued by @WHOAFRO.

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya @WHO @WHOAFRO “The third wave is picking up speed, spreading faster, hitting harder. With rapidly rising case numbers and increasing reports of serious illness, the latest surge threatens to be Africa’s worst yet,” says @MoetiTshidi.
afro.who.int/news/africa-fa…

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya @WHO @WHOAFRO @MoetiTshidi There are several factors but one of them appears to be the spread of the #deltavariant.
As @WHOAFRO notes: In DRC and Uganda, "the Delta variant has been detected in most samples sequenced in the past month.” It has been reported in 14 countries across Africa.

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya @WHO @WHOAFRO @MoetiTshidi At the same time, vaccine coverage in Africa is the lowest in the world by far.
Just 1 percent of the population is fully vaccinated and another percent is partly vaccinated.
(In Europe that’s 25% and 14% respectively)

@doctorsoumya

@doctorsoumya @WHO @WHOAFRO @MoetiTshidi As @WHOAFRO notes in press release, there simply is nothing to vaccinate people with:
"Eighteen African countries have used over 80% of their COVAX vaccine supplies, with eight having exhausted their stocks. Twenty-nine countries have administered over 50% of their supplies"

The upshot?
We look to be on track for what global health experts have been warning about for a long time: A split-screen pandemic with terrible human toll in some parts of the world while richer countries are getting closer to „normal“.
Sadly that‘s the global „normal“ too.

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More from @kakape

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

25 Jun

@WHO

“Globally there is currently a lot of concern about the #deltavariant, and @WHO is concerned about it too”, says @DrTedros at #covid19 presser.
“Delta is the most transmissible of the variants identified so far... and is spreading rapidly among unvaccinated populations."

@WHO

@WHO @DrTedros “New variants are expected and will continue to be reported. That’s what viruses do: they evolve”, says @drtedros
“But we can prevent the emergence of variants by preventing transmission.
It’s quite simple:
More transmission, more variants.
Less transmission, less variants."

@WHO

@WHO @DrTedros "This is why WHO has been saying for at least a year that vaccines must be distributed equitably, to protect health workers and the most vulnerable”, says @DrTedros.

Read 12 tweets

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

23 Jun

@meredithwadman

If you haven‘t noticed: After a lot of reporting on vaccine side effects and vaccine equity and a brief break, I‘m back on variant watch.
So let‘s start with a catch-up thread on all things #deltavariant and new story with @meredithwadman is here:
sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/d…

@meredithwadman

@meredithwadman The delta variant was first isolated in the Indian state of Maharashtra in December but really only got attention when it started to take off a couple of months later and when it rapidly spread in the UK.
So as usual: It’s early days and many things are still uncertain.

@meredithwadman

@meredithwadman This from @PHE_uk last week is still a great overview of where we are on the #DeltaVariant:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

Read 10 tweets

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

23 Jun

@ECDC_EU

For the record:
Today, @ECDC_EU is saying loud and clear to European governments that they need to keep in place enough restrictions to keep #sarscov2 from circulating. Otherwise hospitalizations and deaths are likely to surge again soon.

„given the expected future predominance of the Delta variant, the risk has increased … . Without continued application of NPI measures and further rapid rollout of full vaccination, sharp increases in new infections, hospitalisations and deaths may be observed“

Measures „should be maintained at a level sufficient to contain community transmission of the Delta VOC until greater shares of the population are fully vaccinated, in order to avoid a resurgence of cases with a possible increase in hospitalisations and mortality.“

Read 4 tweets

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

23 Jun

@ECDC_EU

„we estimate that by the end of August [the delta vatiant] will represent 90% of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulating in the European Union“, says @ECDC_EU director Andrea Ammon.

„very likely that the Delta variant will circulate extensively during the summer, particularly among younger individuals that are not targeted for vaccination.“ Increases risk for vulnerable people to be infected, get severely sick or even die if they are not fully vaccinated.

„Until most of the vulnerable individuals are protected, we need to keep the circulation of the Delta virus low by strictly adhering to public health measures, which worked for controlling the impact of other variants.“

Read 5 tweets

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

21 Jun

@DrTedros

“Globally, newly reported cases of #COVID19 have now declined for eight weeks in a row. And deaths have declined for seven weeks in a row”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser.
"This is good news”, he says. But also points out that it's still:
250 cases and
six deaths every minute.

@DrTedros

@DrTedros @WHO "The rate of decline in most regions has slowed”, says @DrTedros.
"In Africa, the number of #covid19 cases and deaths increased by almost 40% in the past week, and in some countries the number of deaths tripled or quadrupled."

@DrTedros

@DrTedros @WHO "While a handful of countries have high vaccination rates and are now seeing lower numbers of hospitalizations and deaths, other countries in Africa, the Americas and Asia are now facing steep epidemics”, says @DrTedros.
“These cases and deaths are largely avoidable."

Read 13 tweets

Kai Kupferschmidt

@kakape

17 Jun

Vor eineinhalb Jahren wurde eine neue Krankheit in China entdeckt.
Heute hat fast die Hälfte der dt. Bevölkerung mindestens eine Dosis Impfstoff gegen #SARSCoV2 bekommen.

Vor 40 Jahren wurde eine neue Krankheit in den USA entdeckt.
Bis heute gibt es keinen Impfstoff gegen HIV.

@pandemiapodcast

Wir haben das im @pandemiapodcast zum Anlass genommen uns in den vergangenen Wochen einmal ausführlich mit HIV und der Suche nach einem Impfstoff dagegen auseinanderzusetzen. Herausgekommen ist eine Miniserie in drei Teilen:

@pandemiapodcast

@pandemiapodcast Wir versuchen in der ersten Folge, die Anfänge der Aids-Epidemie in den USA und in Thailand nachzuzeichnen und sprechen dafür unter anderem mit Toni Fauci und Praphan Phanuphak über die düsteren ersten Jahre der “anderen Pandemie".
viertausendhertz.de/pan21/