Timely outing on Odd Lots with @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart to discuss data silos and "walled gardens" in the digital economy

One thought occurred to me after the podcast.

Here's a quick thread.
Privacy looms large when CBDCs come up, as digital currencies rely on a ledger of some kind - a record of who owns what, when, and who pays what to whom; see this (tough but fair) interview with @izakaminska and @senoj_erialc I gave to @FTAlphaville
The idea of a digital ID-based CBDC causes discomfort (to say the least); it conjures up notions of compulsory national identity cards
See this classic episode of "Yes Minister", for instance
But it's worth casting the net wider, as digital ID needn't be a government-issued national ID system;

See the box on the subject in the BIS report on CBDCs (page 83)

bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2…
And there's always the "jigsaw puzzle" principle; no single party (other than the individual him/herself) has all the pieces; public key cryptography is a pretty familiar technology going back to the 1970s

There is a brief discussion of the "federated ID model" in the chapter
Anyway, the centrality of data in the digital economy means that "walled gardens" are all around for the unwary
It's nice inside, but it can be pretty difficult to escape once you're there
I should have mentioned to @tracyalloway and @TheStalwart the classic 1960s TV series "The Prisoner"

It's not a bad allegory for walled gardens

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Priso…
If you're into this kind of thing, the opening episode is up on YouTube in its entirety

Adding two further pieces to this thread (looks like our CBDC chapter has started quite a lively debate).

The first is this thoughtful piece by @MESandbu that asks all the right questions on what broader impact of CBDCs will be

ft.com/content/1b35d7…
The second piece is from @gilliantett; “A contest to control crypto is under way” on.ft.com/3wUMSAA

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More from @HyunSongShin

7 Jun
The BIS is expanding coverage of its government bonds statistics

A thread follows
The BIS Quarterly Review out today has an introductory piece outlining what's new

bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
Bird's eye view of what's on offer from the BIS on its coverage of government bonds

Table C4 is brand new; it has the all-important breakdown by currency of issue

bis.org/statistics/sec…
Read 11 tweets
25 Jan
Happy to announce the launch of the BIS’s “Dreamcatcher” data visualisation tool with the latest BIS banking statistics:

bis.org/statistics/rpp…

A thread follows
Dreamcatcher puts into one package the BIS’s cross-border banking statistics; or more accurately, it gathers the BIS’s locational banking statistics that breaks out the cross-border bank claims according to the residence principle

bis.org/statistics/sta…
Hovering your cursor above the segment of the circle that represents a particular jurisdiction will bring up the full list of cross-border assets and liabilities of banks operating from there

bis.org/statistics/sta…

The example below is the United Kingdom
Read 8 tweets
10 Nov 20
Much can be learned on the payment system and the monetary-fiscal nexus from the rise and fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609 - 1820), one of the first central banks in Europe

Link to my BIS working paper published today:

bis.org/publ/work902.h…

A short thread follows
The Bank of Amsterdam started life as a rigid stablecoin, where holders of silver and gold coins delivered them to the Bank, in return for deposits
These deposits were used for wholesale payments - for settlement of financial instruments like bills of exchange where a payment was settled by debiting the account of the payer and crediting the account of the receiver, much like the modern wholesale payment system
Read 7 tweets
14 Aug 20
Corporate credit markets decoupled in March; bond issuance boomed but discretionary bank credit stalled

Unequal access to credit between large firms and the rest is the topic of today's #BIS_Bulletin

A thread follows

bis.org/publ/bisbull29…
First, some facts:

The weekly series on new borrowing in debt markets surged at the end of March (left panel); but most of the surge came from bond issuance (middle panel) rather than from syndicated loans
This decoupling of the bond and syndicated loan market is a repeat of what happened in the aftermath of Lehman, when loan volumes crashed and bond issuance surged (right-hand panel)
Read 15 tweets
23 Jul 20
Inflation tail risks have risen, mostly to the downside but some also to the upside

Today's #BIS_Bulletin sorts through the cases
bis.org/publ/bisbull28…
Phillips curve reasoning carries us a long way: subdued activity increases downside tail risk to inflation; but this is not the only story on inflation
The authors get at tail risks through quantile regressions that track outliers in realised inflation; the red curves below give the densities of 4-quarter ahead probability densities for inflation
Read 13 tweets
20 Jul 20
Well done to @GitaGopinath and the team for the timely report and for putting together this superb panel chaired by @SoumayaKeynes; time was too short to explore all the issues, but a couple of the points deserve emphasis

A short thread follows
We're accustomed to thinking of the global economy as a collection of "islands", each island being a national GDP area; exchange rates then adjust to bring balance of payments into balance
Today's report from the IMF shows that the short-term response of exports to a depreciation does not follow this script; imports decline and exports barely budge imf.org/en/Publication…
Read 23 tweets

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