I must confess I'm depressed how much UK/Western coverage of the Black Sea spat is so keen to poke (minor, and subjective) holes in HMG's account and find fault with its response. A thread 1/
‘MOD said no warning shots were fired, but they were.’ We have footage of one Okhotnik patrol cutter firing its 30mm gun when Defender is almost on the horizon. This was more an act of impotent rage, not a meaningful warning 2/
‘The BBC report undermines MOD.’ Really? HMG clearly wanted to downplay drama, journo understandably to hype it. But in essence they say the same. 3/
‘MOD lied about planes.’ Sure, Defender’s radar pinged some 20 all told in range, and some buzzed the ship – but the MOD’s point was about the alleged bombing 4/
‘It was a set up, hence the journalists.’ This is one of the biggest Royal Navy deployments for years – of course journalists would want - clamour - to be on board 5/
Perversely, ‘MOD incompetent for not controlling narrative/predicting vehemence of RU response.’ Would we rather censorship and equal levels of toxic propaganda? 6/
Isn’t it a good thing to try and play things down? (And if this had all been a carefully-staged provocation, why have independent journalists on board to give their own perceptions?) 7/
‘That Defender went to Action Stations as soon as it left Odesa shows it knew it was staging a provocation.’ Every other time a NATO ships enters waters Moscow illegally claims, it gets hassled, so of course it was ready 8/
‘This was framed as “Innocent Passage” not a Freedom of Navigation Op, so it doesn’t help Ukraine’s case.” In strictly legal terms, maybe. But this is about politics. The way Russia acted so disproportionately shows at least they understand that 9/
But the basic point is this
1) RUSSIA HAS NO CLAIMS TO THOSE WATERS
2) DEFENDER WAS OPERATING WITHIN MARITIME LAW
3) IF THOSE WERE ‘WARNING SHOTS’ THEY WERE ILLEGAL.
That’s it. /end

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More from @MarkGaleotti

24 Jun
Today’s #Russia press reaction to yesterday’s @HMSDefender/#BlackSea incident – a quick summary thread and a few observations 1/
Govt @rgrus runs comment from Konstantin Kosachev, dep. Senate Speaker:
was (UK?) bid “to prevent the recent reconciliation of positions and approaches, which was made presidents of Russia and the United States at the Geneva summit.” 2/
rg.ru/2021/06/24/kos…
Conversely, @izvestia_ru treats this rather blandly, really just running with the official govt statement from Dep FM Ryabkov, but also quoting UK’s denials 3/
iz.ru/1183446/2021-0…
Read 9 tweets
23 Jun
Moscow is saying that Border Guard ships fired warning shots and Black Sea Fleet Su-24s dropped bombs because HMS Defender 'intruded' onto its self-proclaimed waters off Crimea. Not yet confirmed by HMG, as far as I know, but a short thread 1/
By international law, of course, the waters off Crimea are *not* Russian, as the annexation is not recognised. Continuing to pass those waters - without being too provocative - is a crucial way of reaffirming law over land- (and sea-) grab 2/
As I wrote here for @ConGeostrategy, HMS Defender's mission to the Black Sea was a political one - about projecting presence, supporting Kyiv and reminding Moscow that its annexation was not forgotten or accepted 3/
geostrategy.org.uk/britains-world…
Read 8 tweets
11 Jun
"Biden carries the future of democracy with him on his travels to Europe. He must rally European leaders, reinvigorate NATO..., and lead the G-7". And no doubt leap tall buildings with a single bound.
There are some serious dangers in this kind of hyperbolic heroic narrative 1/x
It relegates US allies to the role of adoring chorus or hapless clients. At best, this is infantilising ("you can't expect us to do things on our own", at worse alienating, esp since I think peak US hegemony has actually passed. 2/x
Like any cliffhanger TV series, it makes everything Exciting + Pivotal. Most i/nat diplomacy is about the incremental tending of relationships, not a momentary breakthrough. It creates pressure for sugar-hit initiatives + announcements that are often ill-thought-thru 3/x
Read 5 tweets
16 Mar
This is pretty reprehensible, not just for humanitarian reasons, but also because it actually makes the whole 'Moscow's viral diplomacy' into a thing, without Moscow having to do anything. A short thread to vent and explain 1/
Of course Moscow is going to capitalise on the prestige of having come up quickly with a highly effective vaccine - just as, for example, the UK is happy to be identified with the _Oxford_/AstraZeneca one. All countries take victory laps for their successes, and often rightly 2/
Likewise, of course it will extract what political capital it can from gifting its allies, wooing the wavering, and tempting members of what it regards as a hostile bloc, the West. Better a policy based on trying to push vaccines than one based on hoarding and denial, surely 3/
Read 9 tweets
23 Jan
As dawn sweeps westwards across Russia and protesters and OMON get to do their thing, the q arises of just what constitutes ‘success’ for both #Navalny and the Kremlin. An early morning thread 1/
Obviously, one day of action will neither get Navalny free nor break his movement. Rather, it is about defining what kind of struggle this will be 2/
For Team Navalny, it is about the numbers coming out, the spread of places they come out, and at least as important, what kind of people come out. Can they use it to demonstrate a broadening of their support base? 3/
Read 17 tweets
29 Mar 20
1/ OK, time to make myself unpopular. Yes, in broad terms, #Russia considers itself at #politicalwar with the West, but so much of the overheated current coverage of a supposed use of #COVID19 in infowar is questionable + dangerous. A thread.
2/ Stop conflating Moscow + Beijing. #China is absolutely staging a coordinated disinformation campaign to minimise its responsibility for the pandemic. But the “China + Russia” formulation implying they are the same or coordinating just doesn’t work
3/ Yes, all kinds of toxic conspiracy theory in some of (state-ctrlld) Russian media. But that doesn’t mean it is Kremlin-mandated. These talking heads are paid controversialists who come up with all kinds of nonsense all the time on all subjects w/o any guidance
Read 8 tweets

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