🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🇬🇧🇪🇺🇬🇧 🚨🚨EXC Johnson’s post-Brexit trade policy faces first High Court test via @FT - one for #brexit and trade wonks, but fascinating and a case that will be widely watched per ⁦@AlexanderPHRose⁩ —
Stay with me/1 on.ft.com/2UkXnhZ
@FT @AlexanderPHRose So first the case. It stems from a decision last December by @trussliz to unilaterally allow 260,000 tonnes of "raw cane sugar" to enter the UK tariff-free, for one year. So far, so simple /2

gov.uk/government/con…
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz But British Sugar Plc @BritishSugar has gone to court to argue that this 'autonomous' quota is a de facto subsidy to their US-owned rival Tate & Lyle Sugars @TateLyleSugars because T&L is the ONLY company in UK that refines *cane* sugar -- BS uses homegrown sugar beet/3
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars So British Sugar has gone to court and been granted permission to get a judicial review of @trussliz decision -- arguing that it is an effective state aid, potentially distortionary to EU-UK trade and contrary to the 'state aid' clauses of the NI- protocol /4
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars Quick recap at this point that Art 10 of the NI Protocol said that an *UK* subsidy decision that impacted on goods traded to NI should be notified to European Commission for approval (hence Brexiters saying was gross infringement on UK sovereignty) /5
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars Why does this matter? Well, it's the first legal test a) of the 'reach' of Article 10 and b) of just how 'independent' the UK's independent trade policy is, and the extent to which the TCA and NIP must be referenced in that policy/6
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars In its submission British Sugar argues that the sugar ATQ is effective subsidy since Tate & Lyle has the only refinery for cane sugar, and since the ATQ only lasted a year, it is disingenuous to suggest (as Govt did) that it was open for everyone to invest in/7
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars BS then argues that the effect of his 'subsidy' is to undercut EU producers who export 500k tonnes to UK each year which also impacts products that go into NI -- hence their attempt to drag Article 10 NIP into this/8
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars For it's part Tate & Lyle say this is rubbish -- the ATQ is not a subsidy, there is no trade in raw cane sugar between NI-EU or EU-GB, so the TCA and the Protocol are just not in scope here /9
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars The Government is scathing about the BS case, saying
a) the ATQ isn't a subsidy

b) and if it were, then the UK Gov would find itself having to notify the EU Commission of every tweak to UK global tariff schedule

c) clearly was not intention of A10 NIP to capture this /10
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars The legal experts like @AlexanderPHRose @jamesrwebber (and copying @GeorgePeretzQC here) seem pretty sceptical that British Sugar can with his argument -- and indeed the judge, in granting leave for judicial review, seems to agree, noting "formidable obstacles" facing BS /11
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars @jamesrwebber @GeorgePeretzQC BUT the judge also notes that UK gov failed to land "knock out blow" in citing NIP text AND points out that UK govt argument on notifying all tariff changes is a bit of a straw man, because BS argument is on this very "selective" ATQ it says amounts to a subsidy /12
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars @jamesrwebber @GeorgePeretzQC The other dimension to this is the no-love-lost rivalry between British Sugar and Tate & Lyle Sugars --

Gerald Mason, senior VP says BS case is "pure opportunism" while Paul Kenward @kenward_paul says govt has handed T&L a £12m "windfall" /13
@FT @AlexanderPHRose @trussliz @BritishSugar @TateLyleSugars @jamesrwebber @GeorgePeretzQC @kenward_paul On the face of it, this looks like an uphill battle for British Sugar....but if nothing else the case, when it is heard, will start to clarify whether a narrow tariff change can amount to a subsidy and the reach of Article 10, which will probably be to everyone's benefit. ENDS

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More from @pmdfoster

30 Jun
The UK Govt is announcing tabling legislation on it's new post-Brexit subsidy control regime today, which it says will be simpler/nimbler...here's @FinancialTimes report with help from @GeorgePeretzQC
@jamesrwebber -- but lots of questions unclear.../1

ft.com/content/4206d1…
@FinancialTimes @GeorgePeretzQC @jamesrwebber This is an area where the UK -- because it no longer needs subsidy controls fit for yoking together 27 sovereign economies as in the EU single market situation -- can indeed be nimbler/quicker....see long #Brexit Briefing piece & thread on why/how here /2

We now need to see the detail of how the "Advice Unit" in the CMA is going to work -- what role it will play in decisions over potentially controversial subsidies "of interest" and "of particular interest"....and how those categories are going to be decided/3
Read 7 tweets
29 Jun
🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🚛🚛🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨How Britain’s Channel ports avoided feared #Brexit meltdown…how the French helped, but how the disruption was displaced to depots (and may yet arise when passenger travel restarts). Latest for @FT series. Stay with me/1
on.ft.com/3quPLpn
@FT So first the 'reasonable worst case' as set out last Sept by @michaelgove (not 'remainers' as some Brexiters might have you believe) -- 7,000 lorries in Kent, 2 days queues etc. Armageddon. But it didn't happen. Why? And what did happen? /2
ft.com/content/aa42ac…
@FT @michaelgove Talking to Govt, Industry, Hauliers, Logistics the main reasons are as follows:

- stockpiling. 230k trucks thru Dover in November, highest of the year.

- much lower trade in Jan. “A lot of smaller suppliers just backed off,” says Tim O’Malley of @NationwidePlc /2
Read 17 tweets
28 Jun
🚨🚨🇬🇧🇪🇺🚛🥩🚚🐟🍸🏭🇪🇺🇬🇧🚨🚨Six months on and UK businesses are still battling with Brexit, finds exclusive ⁦@The_IoD⁩ ⁦@cmi_managers⁩ surveys for ⁦@FT⁩ — red tape, labour shortages etc. With ⁦@DanielThomasLDN

Stay with me/1 on.ft.com/3qxVDye
@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN So the @The_IoD survey 651 members. Of those that traded with the EU, only 6 per cent said their trade with the bloc had increased after EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force. 31 per cent said it had decreased. /2
@The_IoD @cmi_managers @FT @DanielThomasLDN Not sure this necessarily that surprising, but it's a reminder that this EU-UK Trade deal that was, per @BorisJohnson creating 'no non-tariff to trade' has hit trade (as we know).

If this was any other trade deal, we'd say it was a total failure. /3
Read 19 tweets
23 Jun
The EU is poised to do mutually agreed can-kick on the 'sausage war' row -- but as @MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane a temporary truce has to lead to a more permanent fix... will it? via @FinancialTimes with @SamFleming10
@PickardJE /1
ft.com/content/ae264e…
@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE One reading, it's an EU climbdown - the 'conditions' for the extension to the grace period on sausages are pretty woolly (keep labelling and seeking permanent solution, ideally a EU-UK vet deal) - but equally it's an improvement on unilateral action /2
@MichaelAodhan @ColdChainShane @FinancialTimes @SamFleming10 @PickardJE But what is the prospect that we don't end up in same place in September??

Because the EU still wants the "core" of the Protocol to be implemented - viz respecting and applying the list of EU rules/directives in the annexes to all goods travelling from GB to NI /3
Read 13 tweets
18 Jun
It's out!!! My weekly #Brexit Briefing for @FT

This week: 1) why industry wants @trussliz to listen to them more so we actually cut *better* deals as we move out of rollover fever... @William_Bain @chrisouthworth @AlexanderHorne1 & @Brigid_Fowler /1

ft.com/content/aebac5…
@FT @trussliz @William_Bain @chrisouthworth @AlexanderHorne1 @Brigid_Fowler In short, industry has had a pretty adversarial relationship no trade -- given that the govt railroaded through a horribly minimalist TCA deal with our biggest trade partner...but now we're moving into next phase (eg new deal with Aus) really wants better co-ordination /2
@FT @trussliz @William_Bain @chrisouthworth @AlexanderHorne1 @Brigid_Fowler But the Govt seems stuck in the quantity over quality approach which risks setting bad precedents for future deals with bigger countries.

As @Minette_Batters told Radio 4. “At the moment it just seems to be about writing the press release and developing the policy later.” /3
Read 11 tweets
13 Jun
So. Two pieces on the culture wars to read this weekend. One about the man behind them Dougie Smith via @ShippersUnbound and one by @alexebarker and me for @FinancialTimes ancialtimes on what it’s like being on the receiving end. /1
First the profile of Dougie Smith, the culture warrior who has culture Sec @OliverDowden “on a string” and puppeteers ministers — cf Dacre to Ofcom, Williamson on Queen pic, etc. Part of a Uni club “even Norman Tebbit thought too right wing”!!/3

thetimes.co.uk/article/8f8587…
Then this FT Weekend Front which take a long (and balanced) look at how this is playing out in the 'rebalancing' of boards of museum trustees as the govt, backed by Tory-leaning press, relentlessly and openly wages the culture war/3

ft.com/content/7c9c06…
Read 13 tweets

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