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30 Jun, 6 tweets, 3 min read
Recent initial claims overstate the actual number of individuals entering the regular UI system in California by *two-thirds* per latest @CAPolicyLab:
capolicylab.org/publications/j… Image
Note that this is not about fraud, and it's not about people getting denied payments. It is (primarily) about people filing "additional claims," either when they re-enter UI after a period of work or after their benefits "chain" gets broken (after a payment delay, for example).
Meanwhile, more than 90% of new claims by individuals in CA were for people entering their second (or greater) spell of unemployment during the crisis. Shows the churn of people into and out of jobs during the pandemic.
(I wrote about this in March:
nytimes.com/2021/03/18/bus…) Image
Hard to know how representative the situation in CA, and unfortunately I'm not aware of any other state that has shared data with researchers in the same way. But at a minimum this is (yet another) reminder to be cautious about interpreting UI claims data.
More detail in this thread from @TJ_Hedin:
And also *this* thread from @TJ_Hedin, which speaks more directly to the measurement issues described in my tweets above:

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More from @bencasselman

Ben Casselman Profile picture
2 Jul
U.S. employers added 850k jobs in June. Unemployment rate nudged up to 5.9%.
Full coverage:
nytimes.com/2021/07/02/bus…
Household survey is less strong. Participation flat, employment actually ever so slightly negative.
Another big gain in leisure and hospitality. Also in government (mostly local education -- have to look for possible seasonal adjustment issues there).
Read 4 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
25 Jun
Personal income fell 2% in May. Spending flat. But both above prepandemic levels.
The drop in income was driven by a decline in government transfers (mostly the end of the direct checks under the American Rescue Plan). Wage and salary income rose, though more slowly than in April.
Spending on goods fell and spending on services rose, but we still haven't seen anything close to a wholesale reversal of the big pandemic shifts in spending. Have to see what happens this summer.
Read 10 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Jun
Job growth picked up in May, but was still weaker than in March. Big-picture, we're still down 7.6 million jobs from before the pandemic.
Remote work continuing to fall as more offices reopen. 16.6% of workers were remote in May, down from peak of 35.4%. 30% of professional workers, down from 57.4%.
The number of workers reporting that they are on temporary layoff fell below 2 million for the first time since the pandemic began. Permanent layoffs also falling, but more slowly.
Read 13 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
4 Jun
U.S. employers added 559,000 jobs in May. The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%.
nytimes.com/2021/06/04/bus…
Very small upward revisions to March and Aril. Net gain of 27,000 jobs vs previous estimates.
Unemployment rate fell for "good" reasons in that employment was up, unemployment was down. But labor force was basically flat (actually down slightly), which will add fuel to "labor shortage" concerns.
Read 5 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
3 Jun
Is inflation really "transitory" as the Fed insists? Will labor shortages ease by fall? Can workers expect more raises?
I can't tell you any of that. But I *can* tell you what indicators to watch in this strange moment for the U.S. economy.
nytimes.com/2021/06/03/bus…
1. Prices are up, but mostly in categories with clear links to the pandemic. The question is whether it spreads. (Although, as @ConstanceHunter reminded me: "Transitory does not mean it's not disruptive.")
It's tempting to create ad hoc baskets of goods (ex-leisure, ex-autos, ex-... other stuff that doesn't fit my narrative), but it's easy to wind up cherry-picking, intentionally or otherwise.
Read 22 tweets
Ben Casselman Profile picture
7 May
So, here's where I am on the #JobsReport right now:
First, we should never read too much into any one report, *especially* in moments like now when so much is changing. Revisions can be big enough to shift our overall interpretation. And even "real" changes can prove short-lived.
But if your prior coming into today was "labor supply isn't a real problem right now," I think this report has to shift that somewhat.
Here's why:
The two strongest pieces of evidence against the "labor supply" story were:
1. Job growth was really strong (hard to say there's a shortage when companies can hire 1m people per month!);
2. Wage growth was modest, even in the most affected industries.
Read 12 tweets

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