Tweet

Dave Wasserman

2 Jul, 8 tweets, 7 min read

NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.

However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.

Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats.

#NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) won the state's closest race in 2020, defeating state Sen. Tom Kean (R) by just 1.2%. The map above (right) would boost Malinowski by ten points by axing Hunterdon & Warren counties and adding the majority Black city of Plainfield.

However, Kean (R) is running again in '22, and he and his allies got to appoint the entire GOP side of the redistricting commission. They could propose an 8D-4R map that dooms Malinowski by moving his seat #NJ07 from Biden +10 (left) to Trump +5, and targets Kim too (right).

Such a GOP plan would connect Kean's hometown of Westfield w/ the reddest parts of NW Jersey, including Hunterdon, Warren and Sussex counties. It would also give #NJ03 Kim (D) more of red Ocean Co.

A side effect: it would shore up #NJ05 Gottheimer (D) and #NJ11 Sherrill (D).

Dems obviously don't want to cede any ground. But they also might not want to risk a tie-breaker picking a map that gives the GOP two more seats.

It's *possible* a deal could be made: a 9D-3R map that gives Kean (R) a winnable #NJ07 but shores up Kim (D) in #NJ03 (right).

That would essentially involve the commission's Dems throwing Malinowski (D) under the bus. I don't think it's necessarily the most likely outcome. However, both parties have some incentive to come to the negotiating table.

For a blue state, there's a lot of uncertainty in NJ.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

More from @Redistrict

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

30 Jun

@BOENYC

Tonight's debacle brings us back to the Bronx mystery. Setting aside the 130k "fake" votes issue, here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '17 mayoral primary by borough:

Queens +78%
Manhattan +71%
Staten Island +71%
Brooklyn +70%
--------------
Bronx +32%

@BOENYC

And here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '13 mayoral primary by borough:

Brooklyn +25%
Staten Island +21%
Queens +15%
Manhattan +13%
--------------
Bronx -3%

@BOENYC

Keep in mind: these differentials will only widen once Manhattan-heavy absentees are added to the totals.

Altogether, the Bronx is a pretty big statistical outlier here. Given what we've seen from @BOENYC today, I wouldn't rule out a substantial under-reporting error.

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

18 Jun

NEVADA: Dems hold a 3D-1R lead in House seats and control redistricting here for the first time ever. But they'll need to shore up #NV03 and #NV04 in the Las Vegas suburbs, both of which they held by <5 pts in 2020.

The easiest way to do that? Shift heavily GOP parts of Henderson & Centennial Hills into the downtown Las Vegas #NV01 (Biden +25, left) - which would make both #NV03 and #NV04 about 5 pts bluer (right) while #NV01 would remain safe.

The only complication? Hispanic state legislators might object to reducing the Latino % in #NV01, where former state Sen. Yvanna Cancela (D) is expected to run when Rep. Dina Titus (D) decides to leave.

In the hypothetical above (right), #NV01's Latino share would remain >40%.

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

18 Jun

NEBRASKA: Republicans control redistricting and hold a 3-0 monopoly on House seats, but it's high steaks nonetheless - Omaha's #NE02 has been highly competitive and Biden captured its lone Electoral Vote in 2020.

Pretty much the only way for the GOP unicameral to wrest #NE02 back into the red column would be to split Omaha. Adding the rest of Sarpy Co. (Bellevue) to #NE02 and moving Omaha's bluest precincts into #NE03 (below) would flip #NE02 from Biden +6 to Trump +1.

However, splitting up Omaha and diluting its Black vote could run into stiff opposition from civic groups & potentially courts. We'll see how it unfolds.

Read 5 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

17 Jun

I don’t think an independent commission mandate would be workable in time for the current redistricting cycle.

But, provisions banning unnecessary splits of counties/subdivisions could be and, while not eliminating gerrymandering, would help rein in its most extreme excesses.

Simple, easy-to-follow rules - i.e., "if X districts can fit within a county, they must be drawn" and "only split the minimum number of municipalities necessary to create equally populous districts" - would go a long way, and would probably have the best chance of passing.

And, contrary to the situation 20-30 years ago, I'd argue rules like these would not only rein in the most extreme gerrymandering but would be *increase* minority opportunities to win congressional seats...

Read 6 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

10 Jun

MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t thearp.org).

However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).

In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.

Read 4 tweets

Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict

11 May

In 2013, Ken Cuccinelli (R) only lost Fairfax County to Terry McAuliffe (D) by 22 points. If Glenn Youngkin (R) can spend enough in DC to keep his deficit there in the same range, he'd have a chance, given rural VA's drift right since. Still uphill for Rs.

To put it in perspective: a 22 pt margin sounds like a lot, but Northam (D) won it by 37 in 2017 and Biden won it by 42. This fall will test whether the blue shift is permanent up and down the ballot, or back to being more elastic w/ Trump out of office. #VAGOV

Another huge suburban battleground Youngkin would need to snap back: Virginia Beach, which voted for Cuccinelli by 2 pts in 2013 but Northam by 5 pts in 2017. Unlike the past two GOP nominees, Youngkin has roots in Hampton Roads - which could be helpful. #VAGOV

Read 4 tweets

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!