(1) Thread #6: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse

I called it early on. This event has a ripple effect across the US for emergency management, public safety policy, and infrastructure. The "built environment."

My Surfside thread directory:
(2) I'm not "tooting my own horn." I'm doing what anyone else would do when they have information that others might not have, that could save one life, let alone hundreds of lives.

This building collapse is not new or unusual to folk outside the US who witnessed similar events.
(3) It's true that most people would believe "buildings don't just fall down in America," and in most cases, they are right. There are stringent standards and liability laws in the US.

But statistically, someone always lets the side down. It's human nature.
(4) There is a long and detailed history of structural failures causing fatalities in the US.

In the same Miami Area just two years ago 6 road users died at the site of the FIU pedestrian bridge collapse. I was scathing in my critique of those involved.

Link to that thread:
(5) Rather than link you to the start of those 2018 threads, I've added to the end of one of them.

This is so you can read my updated view then scroll up to the start, if you wish to. There is (very) salient engineering and policy content in the thread.

(6) And I aim for no more than about 20 tweets to a thread now, not 40 lol.

On 1/6/2021 when my support for the current GOP reached it's final straw, I knew that "coming out" as an Ex-MAGA supporter would create some controversy at this online part of my life. It's fine.
(7) Florida is a really interesting state, in a number of ways.

I think it's clear by now that both R and D politicians over the decades have contributed to the kind of problems that led to tragedies like the FIU bridge collapse, and Surfside.
(8) The Surfside response so far has been exemplary, in terms of good faith cooperation at all levels of government.

Read what President Biden said about it, incl. what Gov DeSantis said:

a) whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…

b) whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…
(9) Normally, there would be no need to or value in my talking about partisan politics in my coverage of this event.

But it's not the building collapse that is unprecedented in the US, it's the political climate, which is an emergency in itself.

Whichever way you look at it.
(10) The framing of the story below tells me there's going to be partisan noise about it for a news cycle or 3.

I noticed it yesterday and did some research about it, to satisfy myself at least that it's just a side issue and doesn't nec. impact the vital work at Surfside.
(11) While the Hurricane #Elsa forecast is _currently_ less clear than we'd like, due to natural factors, some things are known:

>It will likely not affect Florida until early next week. The rally is tonight (Sat.)

>The chance of it staying a hurricane by then is low.
(12) So if you see assertions that "Trump held a rally near the Surfside collapse site as a hurricane was approaching" you now know why they would be BS.

If the rally was to be anywhere near Surfside, with an imminent hurricane, then I'd be calling him out for it.
(13) At this time his rallies are, like many other things, relatively small. More like 5k than 50k. That's another reason to keep your hair on.

I'd love it if he didn't hold any rallies this year. But as a private citizen he has rights and so do you.

That's the key point.
(14) All of this, incl. the Surfside collapse, is about rights and responsibilities. The USA was designed to be a country where both things are clear, at least compared to other countries. Tomorrow is the 4th of July. It's another reminder to pause, reflect, & renew your spirits.
(15) To prevent the next Surfside-type event, changing a huge number of laws and policies at every level of government is going to take a huge effort.

But if any country can do it, the US can. In the meantime, individual householders can act. Your life is worth more than money.
(16) And I would like to again say, that it's not just buildings at risk, it's built infrastructure in general.

Including reservoirs, dams, pipelines, power lines, gas lines, bridges, roads, railroads, ports, shipping operations, aviation, airports...
(17) It is not just about who pays for public safety and how much it costs. Lives can be saved at relatively low cost by reviewing and addressing existing enforcement practices and outcomes.

We must start listening to #whistleblowers, and supporting them in practical ways.
(18) None of this is achievable unless Americans take a "one nation" approach, as Biden talked about during his Surfside visit.

Both DeSantis and Biden emphatically went on the record promising to work together in good faith & do all they can to cut through any bureaucracy.
(19) In a lot of places, including Australia, "one nation" means the kind of policies promised by Trump in 2016. So it wouldn't be among the first phrases I'd draft in a 2021 speech for a US president, or governor.

But we know to take it figuratively not literally don't we.
(20) I think I could sustain the argument in a formal debate that large parts of the policy platform of both Rs & Ds aim to support national unity, esp. when dealing with the aftermath of tragedies like Surfside.

It's common sense & no serious politician speaks against it.
(21) I can think of several R congressfolk who have prob already made improper remarks about why Surfside happened & what it means for the US.

I suggest we dismiss those remarks for the sake of our own sanity. There's time to hold them accountable for their bigotry & actions.
(22) While time and energy is given to such people and their frankly antisocial desires, it is time and energy not spent on stopping the next infrastructure failure that can take hundreds, even thousands, of lives.

A large amount of taxpayer funds will be spent on Surfside.
(23) I am in favor of taxpayer funds being used for immediate humanitarian needs after a large scale tragedy like this.

Despite the size and wealth of the US, resources are not unlimited. Next week there could be a disaster with 1,000 times more cost.

Also an equity issue.
(24) As we have found in NZ, maximizing the taxpayer support of high profile disaster victims always leaves out the victims of smaller scale emergencies or crimes.

So that is an equity issue. It's unfair, and it can lead to unforeseen consequences down the line.
(25) I have learned in life that it's far smarter to assume the government will not come through for you in an emergency. Then if they do, it's a bonus.

Only in my 40s did I really grasp that I should use all my skills and resources to get my own house in order, as priority #1.
(26) So that's potentially another suggestion for a good use of your time, and mine. Help the younger folk in your life to learn this stuff. Being raised mostly by devices with screens is a poor way to prepare for adulthood.

As always, ready.gov is here to help.😉
(27) It's July 5th, local time & the remaining building has come down in a controlled demolition 11 days after the original collapse.

It is time to accept that searchers now need to move from rescue to recovery. Human and financial resources are not unlimited, esp. right now.
(28) In my experience there is a limit to the human risk and financial cost of disaster response that the rest of the community are willing to bear. This limit is usually invisible, and high.

6 rescuers have tested +ve for Covid. Each day they're at risk of injury & even death.
(29) Examples can be found everywhere of a community or country, wanting to call time on recovery work once a reasonable time period & risk level have passed.

I wrote about Pike River, 2010 in NZ earlier in this series. Some families are still calling for body recovery efforts.
(30) I think all of us who are capable of empathy realize the perspective of a grieving loved one is likely different to our own. We wish they could have anything that might ease the pain. The immense challenge for leaders is to make the tough decisions, at the right time.
(31) On another note, I still do not know why the number unaccounted for keeps dropping. I hope the victim registry efforts have been managed well. Media report 24 confirmed deaths and 121 missing, which is 145, down from 165. Were they absent from the area?

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More from @FreedomFriesInc

4 Jul
(1) This kind of black and white thinking (dichotomous reasoning) by Henry Winkler / The Fonz is why the US is in a crisis right now.

And it's not about a need to "depend on one another again."

Reality is more nuanced and, ironically, more optimistic. Image
(2) Before seeing this tweet today I had been thinking (since December 2020) that former president Trump is a lot like The Fonz in the 1970s TV show Happy Days.

Seemingly incapable of saying "I was wrong" and "sorry," to anyone, anytime.
(3) The Fonz character was a light hearted parody of those who love themselves more than anyone else, at a time when comedy was comedy and life was life.

We didn't tend to blur the boundaries between entertainment and being empathetic, sane adults.
Read 18 tweets
4 Jul
(1) Thread 2: Tropical Storm #Elsa

It would be a mistake to treat #TSElsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane. And this one looks like it will hug the coast from Florida to New Jersey, at least. Image
(2) Here is my first #Elsa thread, complete with shameless repetition of Frozen references, because it's not every day you get a fun storm name to use for a few weeks. Next up are #Fred and #Grace.

(3) TS #Elsa update - Sunday evening

Cautiously optimistic about some nuanced changes to the latest forecast. Looks like Elsa will be a TD (Tropical Depression) while moving NNE after Florida & will veer back out to sea once reaching the mid-Atlantic US coast. Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Jul
(1) THREADS DIRECTORY: #SurfsideBuildingCollapse.

I'm here to tell you about New Zealand's response to losing 115 people in the very similar 2011 #CTVBuilding collapse.

I write about emergencies in thread form, for ease of navigation. Only a few end up needing a directory.
(2) I'm not an American but one day I might be. I love the country. NZ & the US are old friends & we should get on better than we do.

Anyway, my first #Surfside thread was limited to concern for those directly affected. Aimed to be free of controversy:

(3) Thread #2 saw me express some righteous anger about those who allow disasters to happen through their own incompetence and recklessness.

It turns out, channeling emotion into showing care for others makes one feel better for at least a while.

Read 6 tweets
2 Jul
(1) Thread #1: #HurricaneElsa

Last night I almost started this thread as TS #Elsa and I'm glad I didn't.

Now a Cat 1 hurricane, and it's too early to predict much else for FL and surrounding states.

(2) It would be a mistake to treat Hurricane Elsa as if she's a sweet little princess and you can safely #LetItGo.

Even a tropical storm can be deadly like a hurricane.
(3) I've been watching the developing Elsa for about 10 days. Current forecast has the system at hurricane strength through the Caribbean. Fortunately for the USVI and Puerto Rico, passing well to the South of them.

Forecast to become a TS before reaching Florida mid-week.
Read 24 tweets
1 Jul
(1) #SurfsideBuildingCollapse Thread #5

Well, 5 threads about an event is my personal record & that's going to be broken. I will start a "directory thread" linking them all.

Today, 7/1/2021 marks a turning point for Surfside in several ways.
(2) I predicted last night that the rescue operation was about to become a recovery operation. Today, safety sensors activated & crews had to reluctantly pull back. This happened in the 9/11 recovery op & in the NZ situation. All similar types of events, of different sizes.
(3) Further, the fire chief said that a female voice had been heard in the initial hours after the collapse but they couldn't find or reach her.

This happened in NZ, too. Several people survived the collapse only to die while still trapped. One had been on phone to her husband.
Read 26 tweets
1 Jul
(1) I cannot think of a mental health diagnosis that would require a previously mentally competent 39 year old woman to have an IUD in her body as contraception, apparently against her wishes. Note I said apparently, because...
(2) I do not have the full information about Britney Spears' case. In the US, as in NZ (where my legal knowledge is greater), there appear to be two types of conservatorship - personal and financial. This is as it should be.

I was concerned to hear about the IUD.
(3) I can understand that a conservator (whether family or professional) might think Britney's health is better served by having an IUD. But such measures are among the most controversial decisions a conservator or court can ever make.

Esp. if it has been in place for 12 years.
Read 21 tweets

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