Share this page!

Orla Hegarty Profile picture
Twitter logo
5 Jul, 11 tweets, 6 min read
#Covid19 facts for those negotiating indoor dining rules today

#1 Covid-19 spreads in air & can fill a room like smoke in certain conditions

Irrespective of distance, if 6 people spend time in shared air, up to 5 will be infected english.elpais.com/society/2020-1…
#2 Delta variant is TWICE as transmissible as the #Covid19 circulating last year, Delta is now 70% of cases in Ireland (& rising)

thejournal.ie/delta-variant-…
#3 Indoor dining (without precautions) is very high risk of #superspread as people are close together, talking & shouting, for a long time, without masks

‘Public health experts, including Dr. Fauci, say evidence is abundantly clear: When bars open, infections tend to follow’
#4 One study calculated R=2.3 for a restaurant with 50% occupancy, meaning an infected person could infect more than two others

Distancing is not a protection from virus spread in closed spaces
#5 the Chief Medical Officer warned about these risks last October

‘Covid-19 is spread indoors in poor ventilation’
#6 Vaccination is a good protection from serious illness & hospitalisation

💉💉is 60-90% protection for Delta

💉 is 33-50% protection from Delta

People who are fully vaccinated can catch #COVID19 & transmit it to others

Vaccination is not a protection from #superspread
#7 Most hospitality staff aren’t vaccinated

36% of population fully vaccinated (50% adults)

51% of population partially vaccinated (68% adults)

HALF of the population has no vaccine protection (incl children, under 40s, those with limited immunity)
thejournal.ie/vaccination-ir…
#8 Rate of growth (R= 1.3) is already HIGHER than NPHET/ IEMAG optimistic scenario (R= 1.2)

The difference between R= 1.2 & 1.4 is an extra 100,000 cases in coming months
#9 #Covid19 is PREVENTABLE disease

It’s inhaled in infected air

FIRST defence is stopping people inhaling it (clean air)

SECOND defence is giving people immunity to fight it (vaccines)

THIRD defence is finding infections (testing)

Clean air is key
#10 All indoor environments can be brought to low risk with monitoring, clean air (ventilation/filtration), managed occupancy/activity, & some operational changes to building/ equipment/layout etc

Expert report to NPHET: assets.gov.ie/137030/fb86a6e…

FAQs: docs.google.com/document/d/1fB…
#11 Clean air means indoor dining can be used by everyone (incl children, vaccinated, unvaccinated, those with limited immunity)

Clean air is best defence against every future variant (which may not be the case with vaccines)

Clean air is a permanent fix for permanent opening.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Orla Hegarty

Orla Hegarty Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Orla_Hegarty

Orla Hegarty Profile picture
17 Jun
#Covid19 “Flying is safe”? ✈️
CO2 measurement on flight between Bilbao & Barcelona

.. recommended CO2 is below 800ppm... at 3,000ppm you’re breathing too much of other people’s exhaled air & at risk of inhaling the virus & becoming infected
USA flight (again highest risks of poor ventilation seem at boarding/disembarkation & taxiing)
CO2 monitors do not measure filtration of air, so don’t show that HEPA filters reduce risk ~when air is being circulated through filters~

IATA say modern aircraft have 50% fresh air /50% filtered air

Risk varies by aircraft, operation & maintenance..& number of people on board
Read 7 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
12 Jun
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#1 ‘we are doomed to failure if we see it purely as a game of numbers.. lowering the bar to get developers to build tiny, dim, carbon-intensive, socially-isolating, unaffordable boxes’ alastairparvin.medium.com/if-the-uk-buil…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#2 most claiming that supply will meet demand (at a hypothetical equilibrium) expect it to take until 2025... which suggests 4 more years of rising house prices
extra.ie/2021/05/04/fea…
Why SupplySupplySupply won’t solve the #housing affordability problem

#3 Speculative developers now have high sales prices baked-in to financing.. if market prices drop they may lose funding, they can’t build & sell at a loss

*this from current apartment proposal in Dublin 7
Read 11 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
11 Jun
‘the space coloured red represents pure air under the most favourable circumstances of strong wind.. the blue indicates impure atmosphere’ (1854)

..#crossventilation keeps the air moving, so that stale air & viral particles are diluted & removed
Upper: ‘the state of the atmosphere in a non-ventilated church, the windows & doors being closed & lamps lighted’

Lower: ‘the tower or spire is made to act as well for the introduction of fresh air as for removal of impure air, & for both purposes it affords superior facilities’
‘a sectional view of one of the largest & most modern of ‘Ward Schools’ in New York which will convey some idea of the child-packing followed in some of them.. originally intended for 1,000 into which 1,400 are suffered to be crammed without an attempt at systemic ventilation...
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
1 May
[Thread] Solving the #housing crisis means facing facts

#1 Planning Permission is not a barrier to housing in Dublin, there are over 40,000 ‘ready-to-go’ permissions for houses & apartments in Dublin Q2 2020

Just 2,000 homes were built in 2019, about 5% of available permissions
#2 Increasing supply alone won’t make housing affordable

‘additional 1% housing stock expected to lower house prices by 1.5% to 2%, all else equal’ -Economist @ianmulheirn

So by supply alone, Dublin would need 150,000+ new homes to become affordable housingevidence.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Housing is an asset, the value of that asset can rise & fall in the market. The amount of housing supply is a small part of pricing

Economist @DrCameronMurray calls this asset pricing ‘not supply mountain’
Read 17 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
29 Apr
‘1 in 1,000 cases traced to outdoor transmission’ has now been reported around the world as research from Ireland

To correct record: this isn’t a research study & isn’t valid

Here’s why... 1/
npr.org/sections/healt…
basis of ‘1 in 1,000’ is 262 cases in 42 outbreaks
*only from outbreaks where >2 infected, & not all cases
*only from places that ~may~ be outdoors (21 construction, 20 sport & 1 in community)

& this 262 is compared to ~total~ 232,164 cases recorded in Ireland (to 24 Mar 21) 2/
Meanwhile this ~research~ has flown around the world, & risks influencing people’s behaviour & public policy 3/ ImageImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Orla Hegarty Profile picture
24 Apr
[Thread] 🇮🇳 #India Prevention

#Covid19 is mostly caught by breathing infected air, not from hands

😷 Wear well-fitting masks everywhere indoors

🍽 Eat & drink outside & at a distance

🪟💨 ventilate rooms/vehicles, keep airflow moving at all times, open doors & windows 1/
🌀turn off or limit use of air-con units that recirculate cool, dry air

💦 avoid low humidity in air-con rooms (showers & cooking add moisture)

🛏 avoid shared bedrooms, partly open windows & doors for night airflow

🚙 🚌 open windows, turn fans to full fresh air & mask 2/
Why is air-conditioning higher risk for #Covid19?

🥶 virus survives longer in cool, dry air
🐪 nose mucus dries out & people are less protected
💨 less fresh air is brought in (to save energy)
📦 rooms/cars are sealed, & so virus is trapped & builds up like invisible smoke 3/
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @Orla_Hegarty has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @Orla_Hegarty!

Read all threads by @Orla_Hegarty

:(