Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: Euros – Semi Finals

Here I give you a statistical rundown on all the players to pick and avoid as we head into the semi finals:

#Euro2020 #EuroFantasy

*In collaboration with @drafthound – my content partner

*Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent

The #Euro2020 semi-finals are here, and @Drafthound has you completely covered!

✅ Player rankings
✅ Predicted line-ups
✅ Individual match odds
✅ Updated player articles

Everything you need for your #EuroFantasy team 👇

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All the data that I use for analysis in my FPL threads is taken from @FFH_HQ. If you want access to the data yourself, you can get access to it along with a 25% discount by signing up on the link below:

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Italy v Spain: There’s a lot up in the air regarding both the lineups at the moment so I’m super grateful that we’ll have early team news heading into this fixture. This fixture is a tricky one to call, so I think the smart play is to keep hold of the assets you have without...

... looking to invest too much in this fixture. The likes of Immobile, Insigne, Torres, Morata and one Italy defender/goalkeeper should be sufficient cover heading into this fixture on paper. Spain arrive into this game topping every underlying attacking statistic I have...

... studied. They are ranked by far in terms of big chances, xG and xG from open play. To put things into context, Spain have accumulated 25 big chances in total – the next best are Netherlands with 17 and England with 15. Their achilles’ heel in this tournament has been...

... their failure to convert the chances that they have created – they have scored just 7 of the 25 big chances they have posted so far. Italy have conceded just five big chances in the five games they have played so far, so any sort of wastefulness in front of goal is likely...

... to punish Spain should that be the case. Defensively, Spain have been dodgy throughout the tournament conceding the highest number of big chances of all the teams to have qualified for the semi-finals – over the course of the tournament, they have conceded 2.6 big chances...

... per game. This is why I’d back the likes of Insigne and Immobile for captaincy rather than a Spain attacker. Chiesa is definitely worth considering as a differential, his ownership his low and he could help you make up ground in your mini-leagues. Should you be unable to...

... afford him, then the midfield options are so scarce that personally I’m even willing to invest in Jorginho given the off-chance that Italy might get a penalty. Only England and Spain scored more penalties than Italy during the Euro qualifiers – so one can live in hope that...

... they are due a penalty! Another question I’d like to address on this fixture is regarding the Italy defender of choice now that Spinazzola is injured. Bonucci has the attacking threat from set pieces and there is a decent chance that he could get a goal from a set-piece...

... but personally I’d prefer going for the full backs given the consistency of the threat that they carry. I looked into the statistics and over the course of the Euro qualifiers and international friendlies that Italy played in 2020/21, Di Lorenzo had thrice the number...

... of shots in the box and penalty area touches than Emerson. Keep an eye on the lineups though, as there is a possibility that Florenzi could start over him.

England v Denmark: From whatever little there is left of the tournament, I believe this is the one fixture still left to target for potential upside. In Euro fantasy for the semi-finals, you can pick a maximum of six players from the same team hence the strategy to target...

... for upside is to back the full England quota. My picks here would be Sterling, Kane along with four other England defenders. According to the odds available at @drafthound, this is the fixture to target this matchday. England are heavily backed to make the final of the...

... Euros given how the draw has panned out. In this matchday alone, England are easily ranked as the team most likely to keep a clean sheet having approximately a 50% probability which is great given that it’s a semi-final. Ideally, I’d like to pick Maguire, Stones, Shaw...

... and Pickford from the defence. That way, you can get yourself a guaranteed goalkeeper for the final at the same time taking advantage of Stones’ and Maguire’s aerial threat. Shaw picks himself – in England’s recent match against Ukraine, he created the highest number of...

... chances for his team-mates including two big chances. Other than that, England have created more than twice as many chances down their left flank this tournament than down their right. Kane and Sterling are both head and shoulders above any other attacker in the team...

... in terms of security of minutes and big chance involvements hence are the two obvious picks here. I would suggest holding whatever Danish assets you have but this is not a fixture I’d advise buying them for. Maehle has the highest number of big chances, penalty area...

... touches and shots in the box among all defenders to have played in the Euros so far so is the only Danish asset who stands out as we head into the semi-finals.

A big thank you to my friend @fplwaleed who has been helping me with my work during the Euros and will also be contributing to my threads for FPL next season! Make sure to follow him to show your support!

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