Tweet

John Roberts

8 Jul, 10 tweets, 5 min read

The latest #REACT survey (interim Rd 13) has been published and shows a big jump in infection levels, particularly amongst men.⚽️

Overall levels 🔼from 0.15% to 0.59%, and within Rd 13 doubling time is put at 6 days, (R=1.87).

Rates are 3x higher in the unvaccinated.

1/

@imperialcollege

Starting with the overall data - this interim report is very up to date, running to the 5th July (Wow! Speedy work @imperialcollege), and you can see the quadrupling of levels since Round 12.

The previous chart shows how they judge that the increase is accelerating.

2/

Between rounds 12 and 13, R is put at 1.32 (doubling time 15 days), but within round 13 it is estimated at 1.87, with a doubling time of just 6 days. These latter estimates do have wider CI's though.

3/

The main point of interest with Round 13 is that men appear to be around 50% more likely currently to test positive.

It's not hard to think of a reason why that might be the case. #itscominghome.

4/

The other key point is that those who are unvaccinated are three times more likely to test positive, with those having one dose in between.

Note though that even the fully vaccinated rate has quadrupled since Round 12.

5/

The age analysis is very predictable, with levels much higher in those under 25. Even at the oldest ages there have been increases, although proportionately less at the 75+ group.

6/

All regions are up substantially, but there has been an eightfold increase in London (from 0.13% to 1.08%), taking it above the NW which had previously been highest.

7/

Finally, here's the overall chart of infection levels. Note that the end of the graph suggests a level close to 1.0%, which is higher than the 0.59% quoted for the Round. That's because 0.59% is an average, and so the rate at the end will be higher when rates are rising.

8/

REACT is one tool used to chart infection levels along with the weekly ONS survey, PHE daily data, and ZOE.
Like the ONS data, a key strength is its random sampling approach. It can sometimes be criticised for being out of date, but with data to Sunday, not this time.

9/

@ImperialCollege

Thanks to all the researchers at @ImperialCollege, its partners at @IpsosMORI, and also all who take part in it, without which it wouldn't be possible.

Report here:
imperial.ac.uk/medicine/resea…

10/10 END.

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More from @john_actuary

John Roberts

@john_actuary

7 Jul

@ONS

The latest #antibody study from @ONS is out, and shows continued increases in all four countries, with 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 now topping 90%. 👏👏

E🔼from 86.6% to 89.8%
W🔼from 88.7% to 91.8%
NI🔼from 85.4% to 87.2%
S🔼from 79.1% to 84.7%

Here's a visual summary of the last three reports.

1/

Note that although the reports are fortnightly, the last one moved the data on three weeks, this one only one week. So that's one reason why the increases are lower. Also, as we get closer to 100%, there will be a natural limit to the increase possible.

2/

You can see that in the youngest age groups, the level of antibodies is around twice the vaccination coverage, with naturally acquired antibodies making up the difference. (ie they have had COVID at some stage.)

3/

Read 7 tweets

John Roberts

@john_actuary

6 Jul

@ICNARC

The latest @ICNARC report on COVID intensive care activity has been published. It's more comprehensive than ever, so this short thread focuses on recent admission trends. (Outcome data is little changed, being second wave totals.)

Of 536 admiss'ns in June, 43% were in the NW.
1/

536 admissions over a month is still a fraction of the volumes seen at the start of the year, but nevertheless, the recent increase can be seen here. It's a slower rise too, which will be the result of vaccinations (of which more later).

2/

Another reason why the national increase has been slower is it's mainly been concentrated in just one area. You can see here the rise in the NW, compared with figures that, at least so far, barely register in other regions.

3/

Read 14 tweets

John Roberts

@john_actuary

5 Jul

Monday vaccine update:

Back after a short Cornish break, during which the run rate has continued to fall.

189k total doses is down 28%, and 1st doses of 77k are down nearly a half. The 7D total has fallen under 1m, as the number left to do declines, as we'll see next.

1/

18-39 progress:

Over 30 there's little movement now. Under 30, we've probably got around 1.1m still to jab, assuming a final take-up of 72.5%.

Let's look how the numbers have moved over the last week next.

2/

You can see here how little movement there's been in the last week over 30, probably now mainly picking up those making slightly late decisions to get the jab. It's disappointing how poor NI is in comparison to the other countries though.

3/

Read 8 tweets

John Roberts

@john_actuary

26 Jun

Sat vaccine update (excl 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿)

359k reported today, down 12% on last week, with both 1st and 2nd doses lower.

1st doses of 200k were 8% lower. I estimate there's just over 2m of unsatisfied demand for 1st doses outstanding, so around 11 days worth at the current rate.

1/

Take-up for U40s here. It's a bit strange that NI is so far behind for 30-39, but broadly the same as E and S under 30.

2/

We can see here that the NI figure for 30-39 isn't really moving much, so maybe it will end with a considerably lower take-up?

Under 30, E & S are adding between 1.5% and 2% daily, but again NI is much slower at 0.5%.

3/

Read 4 tweets

John Roberts

@john_actuary

25 Jun

Fri vaccine update:

A poor day today, with just under 400k total doses being 15% lower on a week ago.

First doses of 222k were down 9%, which is the real disappointment as we push to complete the younger age groups.

1/

Just a quick summary of the younger ages position today. Under 30, England has now passed 50%.

2nd doses of 178k are predictably down 20% on last week, and the 7D total has fallen below 1.2m, consistent with the low run rate of 1st doses 8 weeks ago.

3/

Read 4 tweets

John Roberts

@john_actuary

25 Jun

@ONS

The latest #infection survey from @ONS shows a dramatic increase in S, with increases also in W and E and a small fall in NI.

E 🔼from 0.19% to 0.22% (1 in 440)
W 🔼from 0.07% to 0.12% (1 in 830)
NI 🔽from 0.16% to 0.14% (1 in 720)
S 🔼🔼🔼from 0.17% to 0.46% (1 in 220)

1/

Here's the data, along with the Confidence Intervals.
It's clear that whilst the CI's are much wider for W/S/NI, the S increase is still very significant.

W has bounced around recently but seems to be on an upward trend too, as is E. NI appears more stable.

2/

Regionally, the NW and NE are still on the increase, whereas elsewhere it's a mixed picture. Albeit at lower levels the SW and East are rising too, others appear stable or even possibly falling.

3/

Read 6 tweets

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