TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+.
The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...
Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left.
Drawing a new 75%+ Biden "vote sink" district in Austin (below) - as well as packing Dem voters into Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's (D) #TX07 in Houston and Rep. Colin Allred's (D) #TX32 in Dallas - could resolve the GOP's immediate problems all around the state.
In the hypothetical 25R-13D Republican gerrymander below, all 25 R seats would have voted for Trump by 10+ points in 2020, and 24/25 would have voted for Trump by 15+ points - locking in GOP dominance for the next decade despite TX's increasing competitiveness.
Now you might ask: how would Republicans net two seats if they draw a new *Dem* seat in Austin? In the hypothetical above, they would convert retiring Rep. Filemon Vela's (D) #TX34 in the Rio Grande Valley from Biden +4 to Trump +10, while keeping it 70% Hispanic (!).
This kind of South Texas makeover might actually win support from neighboring #TX15 Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D), who shockingly came within three points of losing in 2020 and would get a much safer RGV seat in the above scenario.
Of course, Dems could argue that this would severely weaken an existing Hispanic district, #TX34. But Rs could also argue South TX Hispanics are no longer as cohesive a group, given their large pro-Trump swing.
Bottom line: no matter what map Rs draw, expect years of litigation.
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NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.
However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.
Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats.
Tonight's debacle brings us back to the Bronx mystery. Setting aside the 130k "fake" votes issue, here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '17 mayoral primary by borough:
Keep in mind: these differentials will only widen once Manhattan-heavy absentees are added to the totals.
Altogether, the Bronx is a pretty big statistical outlier here. Given what we've seen from @BOENYC today, I wouldn't rule out a substantial under-reporting error.
NEVADA: Dems hold a 3D-1R lead in House seats and control redistricting here for the first time ever. But they'll need to shore up #NV03 and #NV04 in the Las Vegas suburbs, both of which they held by <5 pts in 2020.
The easiest way to do that? Shift heavily GOP parts of Henderson & Centennial Hills into the downtown Las Vegas #NV01 (Biden +25, left) - which would make both #NV03 and #NV04 about 5 pts bluer (right) while #NV01 would remain safe.
The only complication? Hispanic state legislators might object to reducing the Latino % in #NV01, where former state Sen. Yvanna Cancela (D) is expected to run when Rep. Dina Titus (D) decides to leave.
In the hypothetical above (right), #NV01's Latino share would remain >40%.
NEBRASKA: Republicans control redistricting and hold a 3-0 monopoly on House seats, but it's high steaks nonetheless - Omaha's #NE02 has been highly competitive and Biden captured its lone Electoral Vote in 2020.
Pretty much the only way for the GOP unicameral to wrest #NE02 back into the red column would be to split Omaha. Adding the rest of Sarpy Co. (Bellevue) to #NE02 and moving Omaha's bluest precincts into #NE03 (below) would flip #NE02 from Biden +6 to Trump +1.
However, splitting up Omaha and diluting its Black vote could run into stiff opposition from civic groups & potentially courts. We'll see how it unfolds.
I don’t think an independent commission mandate would be workable in time for the current redistricting cycle.
But, provisions banning unnecessary splits of counties/subdivisions could be and, while not eliminating gerrymandering, would help rein in its most extreme excesses.
Simple, easy-to-follow rules - i.e., "if X districts can fit within a county, they must be drawn" and "only split the minimum number of municipalities necessary to create equally populous districts" - would go a long way, and would probably have the best chance of passing.
And, contrary to the situation 20-30 years ago, I'd argue rules like these would not only rein in the most extreme gerrymandering but would be *increase* minority opportunities to win congressional seats...
MONTANA: is set to regain the 2nd district it lost in the 1990 census. Dems are hopeful they could be competitive in a new western district anchored by liberal Missoula & Bozeman - much like in the old, pre-1992 map (below, h/t thearp.org).
However, there's just one problem for Dems. Because so much of Montana's post-1992 growth has been in the west, Bozeman would now end up *east* of the line if the state were split east/west - splitting up Montana's two biggest Dem vote clusters, leaving both seats red (below).
In order for Dems to be remotely competitive in a new #MT01, it would likely need to include all of Missoula, Bozeman, Butte, Helena and Great Falls (below) - and even then, such a seat would've narrowly voted for Trump.