However, despite all this, Zomato’s valuation grows from $ 3 BN to 8.6 BN in 18 mths. Now that’s an innovation at Zomato that I’m not willing to pay for. I’m sure they’ll find many who would like to own “fools gold”. I’ll pass.
Zomato listing – Follow up:
So what does an analyst do when listing surprises everyone. Well, he digs more.
At PE of 350, #ZomatoIPO beats DoorDash of US hands down. And we thought DoorDash is overpriced at PE of 143. Is it pricey? Image
Hell yes, it is VERY pricey. And if possibilities are immense, why did sales stay flat for last 3 yrs? What did we miss here? Takes us to the listing dynamics & why most stocks decline post listing pop phenomenon. Let's see some details.
The prospectus says –
Not less than 75% of the Net Offer shall be Allotted to QIBs. One-third of the Anchor Investor Portion shall be reserved for domestic Mutual Funds, subject to valid Bids at or above the Anchor Investor Price.
So, MFs have to bid above the Anchor investors
“Further, not more than 15% of the Net Offer shall be available for Non-Institutional Bidders (read HNIs). Not more than 10% of the Net Offer shall be available for allocation to Retail Individual Bidders.”
So retail may have got even less than 10% shares.
We don’t know. But here’s the critical point:
Any Equity Shares allotted to Anchor Investors shall be locked-in for a period of 30 days from the date of Allotment.
So not much was available on Friday, July 23rd listing day to trade for a fair price discovery. See the below disclosure. Trading shall commence on Tuesday, July 27th. But we won’t discover the real price as 90% of shares are locked in for at-least one month. Image
Now, what does a retail investor do till then? Well, he takes his profits & runs out of the door being lucky. Zomato with just Rs 2100 cr of stagnated sales can't be in the league of the below at $ 14.7 BN. If you don’t know why a stock shot up, you’ll have no idea when it falls Image
With a very well-intentioned good luck to #ZomatoListing on business, an IPO can't be a priced with nothing left on the table for retail investors. For now, round 1 goes to Zomato.
But we’re watching this one closely…… it's not over yet !

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More from @anuragsingh_as

16 Jul
1)#ZomatoIPO : LONG THREAD: Once in a decade opportunity…. for some?

Is the IPO the golden opportunity for investors, as claimed by many? How much appreciation can one expect? A multi-year holding story or just a listing pop. This time it’s different, or is it? Let’s evaluate:
The authorized share capital of the Company is divided into 880 crore Equity Shares of face value Rs 1 each, paid-up share capital of the Company is Rs 666 crore.

IPO size: Rs 9,350 crore or $ 1.3 BN USD
Valuation of Zomato : Rs 66,000 crore or $ 8.8 BN USD

Ownership as below
Start with the balance sheet: We see B/S size increased almost 3 times in FY 21 vs FY 20. The equity infusion of Rs 7,643 cr in FY 21 just before IPO is not co-incidental? While this is not unusual for growth companies, this quantum change has an implications for shareholders.
Read 29 tweets
3 Dec 20
Long Thread on Farmers protests & Agri reforms: What is the protest all about? Who gets impacted & how? Why are protests concentrated in Punjab & Haryana? Are these really farmers or traders losing grip on monopoly? Are farmers being misled? Let numbers do the talking. Here we go
A top-down view of Indian production is in order here. What does India’s agriculture produce in a year? I like the below chart for FY 2015. Now to understand the complexity, we’ll have to work with one crop & dig details. Let’s work with Wheat. Image
In 2020, India is looking at 105 million tons of Wheat produce vs 94 mn tons in 2015. What does the growth look like? See below the YoY growth of wheat in India. A 105 mn tons in 2020 will bust the chart below. Forget nay-sayers,Indian agriculture is doing great production. Image
Read 27 tweets
2 Mar 20
SBI Cards IPO: long thread on valuation disasters in Indian markets & how these rip off the retail investors: Basic stats first:
13 crore shares offered out of total of 93 crore stocks. 14% float at Rs 750 per share is valuation of Rs 70 thousand crore to SBI Cards. #sbicards
This US $ 10 Billion market cap. They say this is the only card company getting listed so a great opportunity. We’ll see some numbers & benchmarks internationally. At FY'19 profits of Rs 862 crore & EPS =Rs 9.43, we get a Price Earning ratio of 80 !!
I know many will justify citing the growth prospects. I have a few questions to explore.Firstly, what is the highest PE of any mature financial company in India? Look at HDFC bank, Kotak, etc & we see much modest PEs of 25 to 35 for HDFC Bank & Kotak. And they are richly valued.
Read 38 tweets
21 Feb 20
Why do people buy #LIC policy when returns are so bad? Long thread: As LIC goes towards divestment, let’s see what makes it policies click. It could save you a fortune, if you get the spirit behind this thread. Please keep your humor cells intact while reading. Let’s begin:
(1) Indian custom to buy LIC, passed through generations: LIC has the most entrenched network of 12 lac advisers & a legacy of 60 plus yrs. It has become customary to buy LIC. Your dad is bound to recommend the you same once you get your first salary.
However, fact is that the times when average returns from LIC were considered good (1950s-1980s) are long gone.With inflation running 9% for a decade in 2000s, LIC plans have been a big value destroyer.Unfortunately, it takes 20 yrs for you to even realize you lost money on LIC
Read 24 tweets
2 Feb 20
Long thread on Indian Budget 2020-21. Let’s be cynical for a change & question the rationale of initiatives. Because I can’t understand some things the way they are. I’m sure however that we as a nation do believe in good luck. Else we seem to be cruising without compass.
If you couldn’t understand why we needed 2.5 hours speech to convey this budget, you’re not alone. To simplify, GDP = Consumption + Investment + Govt spends + (Exports – Imports).We need all cylinders to fire, for #India with highest working age population in the world.Let's see
Basics first:
On a Rs 30.4 lac cr budget, govt will earn 74% & borrow rest 26%. Of this, 23% will be spent on interest payments. On balance 77%, Defense takes 11%, police forces 4%, subsidies 7%, Railways 7%, tax administration 5%, pensions 7%.
Read 26 tweets
27 Jan 20
How do we understand the editorial ideology of a magazine like #TheEconomist ? A thread that raises some questions to the magazine. I recently read articles from the below 6 editions with some observations. You can read & decide if same questions hit your mind. @TVMohandasPai
@TheEconomist takes note of major economic reforms but choses to overshadow those by “Hindu nationalist goals” like Kashmir lockdown. Hindu-Nationalist ? I don’t see Chinese nationalist or English nationalist being used. So how does patriotism in India becomes Hindu nationalism?
#TheEconomist says #Modi achieved “unusual unity amongst Hindus” & his victory has “settled the debate in favor of Hindutva”. In a 80% Hindu country, what’s wrong with “unity amongst Hindus” ? You want to see us divided as before?
Read 15 tweets

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