Thread by @Usherwood

Two options for Frost today: present a new plan for NI Protocol, or repeat old lines

So how would those play out?

1/

New plan is unlikely to fly, mainly because the ground has been very thoroughly worked over during the past 4-5 years

But let's imagine someone's had a bright idea

2/

A necessary precondition for that new plan would be to show how it ensures all EU needs are met at least as well as now. Otherwise it's a non-starter

3/

Ideally, the new plan would work within current NIP text, in which case UK would also need to show how it is rigorously trying to fulfil its commitments

Which would be a sea change from now

4/

Much more likely, any new plan will fail to meet these conditions, in which case it'll be much like the second option of rehashing old lines

Why do that?

5/

Two elements here, one domestic, one foreign

Ending Parliamentary session with maintenance of high opposition to NIP would keep up profile of 'not selling out' on Brexit to voters and (more imp) backbenchers

6/

Absent a coherent EU strategy ('things we don't like' still doesn't count), posture has to suffice

Let's ignore the longer-term problem with it for now

7/

The EU element is to keep things unstable, ideally to extend grace periods/exemptions long enough that they become effectively permanent, this reducing the problem a bit

This is also not a long-term solution

8/

Summary: UK needs a EU strategy to get to an NIP solution

It's not going to get one today

/end