Right, a first reading of Cmnd Paper on NI Protocol

tl;dr is tl;dr [sic]

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Cmnd Paper follows logical structure:
- how we ended up here
- how we tried to make it work
- why it's not working
- how we want to fix it

Each have issues

2/
Section 1 rightly points out this is a super-complex situation and that no easy options work for all involved

However, it did ultimately sign up to the Protocol, with recognition that implementation would need jt work

3/
(note that 1st sentence of 14: this matters/ed as much as GFA)

4/
Section 2 is better in setting out work on implementation

However, benchmark has to be requirements of treaty (i.e. relative performance) rather than 'we've done lots' (absolute performance)

No discussion of gaps in compliance (e.g. access to IT systems)

5/
The consideration of Art.16 use is also rather disingenuous, given selective reading of that provision and absence of proportionate solutions (Art.16 isn't a simple escape route)

More here:

6/
I'll also leave @DPhinnemore @hayward_katy @LisaClaireWhit1 to discuss whether the use of their research on attitudes in NI is fair

8/
On solutions, there are three main areas

9/
The first two sections rework existing ideas that have been floated before, and shot down by EU

Poor trust is not a good basis on which to offer mutual enforcement BTW

10/
On governance, and removal of CJEU jurisdiction, it's worth reading Protocol itself (eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/…), as provisions refer to use of EU law w/in NI

11/
EU will not (and probably legally cannot) accept a body other than CJEU determining meaning of EU law

A quick glance at #RuleOfLaw debates over Poland/Hungary right now will explain why

12/
Again, the Cmnd Paper notes current set-up is unusual, but then says that's why they accepted it.

In addition, hard to argue it's a problem when minimal use of this route has occurred to date, suggesting it's the principle rather than the practice

13/
The end of the Paper is a call for a 'standstill', to negotiate

This is not a consequence-free option though

14/
For UK, extending grace periods and stopping the EU's legal actions means more time (maybe a lot more time) for status quo to become the norm

In turn, that favours UK argument that Protocol is to be loosely interpreted, so more loosening is alright

15/
Overall, Cmnd Paper is acknowledgement that UK is on the hook for the Protocol, regret that it signed up, and hope that EU will buy a way out

This is not going to happen, for 3 reasons

16/
Firstly, EU isn't crazy about Protocol, but it's not as bad as any other alternative considered during negotiation

Remember it's tied this in with rest of Withdrawal Agt, so bundles together a number of fundamental objectives

Cmnd Paper doesn't unambiguously offer better

17/
Secondly, UK behaviour since signing TCA at Xmas has been antagonistic towards EU, so trust is low (both ways), so harder to accept this is a good faith exercise, rather than more avoiding of obligations

18/
Thirdly, UK has consistently failed to provide detailed options forward in any Brexit negotiation, and Cmnd Paper is also short on detail

That also weakens credibility of proposals

19/
To end, I'm still where I was before I saw this Cmnd Paper

/end

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More from @Usherwood

22 Jul
I'm going to go through this once again, today mainly because 'we didn't realise how the Northern Ireland Protocol would work in practice' is no grounds for trying to get out of your treaty commitments

1/
This argument's popped up today in the morning media round



2/
We'll leave to one side how anyone could sign up to anything they didn't really understand, because that's beside the point of international law

3/
Read 14 tweets
21 Jul
Two options for Frost today: present a new plan for NI Protocol, or repeat old lines

So how would those play out?

1/
New plan is unlikely to fly, mainly because the ground has been very thoroughly worked over during the past 4-5 years

But let's imagine someone's had a bright idea

2/
A necessary precondition for that new plan would be to show how it ensures all EU needs are met at least as well as now. Otherwise it's a non-starter

3/
Read 9 tweets
18 Jul
Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?

Huge thanks to @DPhinnemore @LisaClaireWhit1 for their help in making this work

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic88
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
Only a limited number of ways this could go

1/
Most benignly, the govt offers to work fully within the NIP, with the EU to resolve issue, and leaves it at that

This is unlikely, esp. given that mention of a 'new balance'

2/
Option 2 is to say they'll stick with the current text, but work to build further extensions/grace periods/non-applications to smooth the path

Again, not very likely

3/
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
Since I've written a lot about #Brexit (and for longer than 5 yrs), I thought I'd share some content that speaks to the bigger picture and that might still be of use now

tl;dr it's gone about as well as I thought/feared

1/
This, from Nov 17, tries to explain how Brexit is an exercise in apportioning costs

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

2/
In July 17, I ran through some good practice on negotiating, which still all holds

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

3/
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
A quick Monday morning run-down of where the UK is on the Northern Ireland Protocol

tl;dr yes it creates problems, but those are ones of the UK's choosing

1/
This weekend's G7 was very much at the worse end of possible outcomes, with much digging into positions and a degree of opportunity cost to UK on the actual agenda of the meeting



2/
A lot of the annoyance seems to have come from Macron's remarks on NI being apart from the rest of UK. Johnson's response (above) is true, but misses a key part of the picture - he agreed to NI being apart from the rest of UK

3/
Read 12 tweets

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