I'm going to go through this once again, today mainly because 'we didn't realise how the Northern Ireland Protocol would work in practice' is no grounds for trying to get out of your treaty commitments

1/
This argument's popped up today in the morning media round



2/
We'll leave to one side how anyone could sign up to anything they didn't really understand, because that's beside the point of international law

3/
The thread in my OP unpacks the principle of pacta sunt servanda, which is fundamental to how treaties work

Without it, no treaty would have any meaning at all

(obviously a problem, even for the hardest of Brexiters, who might see value in things like NATO, WTO, etc.)

4/
Now pacta sunt servanda isn't complicated to understand (if you sign up to something, you commit to it, unless really exceptional circumstances intervene)

But it's proving hard for some to get their heads around

So let's try a simpler version

caveat emptor, or buyer beware

5/
You know this, even if you don't know this

For once in my life, I'll send you off to the Mail to read about 'the dangers of not reading the small print' when buying online

dailymail.co.uk/femail/article…

6/
It's the same principle: you're entering a contract, so it's on you to check that contract is what you want/need and that you suffer the consequences

7/
In both shopping and treaty-making there are general rules about what's allowed: essentially stuff about good faith and no coercion

But the key bit is that you cannot outsource the consequences of your decisions

8/
Yesterday's Command Paper on the Protocol was an attempt to do just that: outsource

Lots of words about how difficult it's been and how unusual

(you can see my further thoughts on this: )

9/
Yes, Northern Ireland is unusual and so is the solution chosen (the Protocol), but that's not a reason for the solution to be broken from

Indeed, you could argue it's precisely why you stick to it

10/
You might have noticed that Northern Ireland's situation was the subject of some* discussion prior to the signing of the Withdrawal Agreement in 2019

Including a renegotiation of precisely that Protocol by Johnson in the autumn of that year

* - lots

11/
The issue of how to manage the trilemma of the needs of the GFA, UK territorial integrity and the EU's single market was thrown around many, many, many times and the outcome was the one that was decided to be least worst and which both UK and EU signed up to

12/
Which is a long way of saying that it's literally unbelievable that the UK govt didn't know how this would play out

And, again, under pacta sunt servanda, that is still irrelevant: the treaty was signed and ratified, so it stands

13/
In short: it wasn't all a dream and you don't get to pretend the last season didn't happen

[kids, you can ask your parents about this]

/end

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More from @Usherwood

21 Jul
Right, a first reading of Cmnd Paper on NI Protocol

tl;dr is tl;dr [sic]

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Cmnd Paper follows logical structure:
- how we ended up here
- how we tried to make it work
- why it's not working
- how we want to fix it

Each have issues

2/
Section 1 rightly points out this is a super-complex situation and that no easy options work for all involved

However, it did ultimately sign up to the Protocol, with recognition that implementation would need jt work

3/
Read 20 tweets
21 Jul
Two options for Frost today: present a new plan for NI Protocol, or repeat old lines

So how would those play out?

1/
New plan is unlikely to fly, mainly because the ground has been very thoroughly worked over during the past 4-5 years

But let's imagine someone's had a bright idea

2/
A necessary precondition for that new plan would be to show how it ensures all EU needs are met at least as well as now. Otherwise it's a non-starter

3/
Read 9 tweets
18 Jul
Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?

Huge thanks to @DPhinnemore @LisaClaireWhit1 for their help in making this work

PDF: bit.ly/UshGraphic88
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue
Read 4 tweets
8 Jul
Only a limited number of ways this could go

1/
Most benignly, the govt offers to work fully within the NIP, with the EU to resolve issue, and leaves it at that

This is unlikely, esp. given that mention of a 'new balance'

2/
Option 2 is to say they'll stick with the current text, but work to build further extensions/grace periods/non-applications to smooth the path

Again, not very likely

3/
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun
Since I've written a lot about #Brexit (and for longer than 5 yrs), I thought I'd share some content that speaks to the bigger picture and that might still be of use now

tl;dr it's gone about as well as I thought/feared

1/
This, from Nov 17, tries to explain how Brexit is an exercise in apportioning costs

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

2/
In July 17, I ran through some good practice on negotiating, which still all holds

blogs.surrey.ac.uk/politics/2017/…

3/
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
A quick Monday morning run-down of where the UK is on the Northern Ireland Protocol

tl;dr yes it creates problems, but those are ones of the UK's choosing

1/
This weekend's G7 was very much at the worse end of possible outcomes, with much digging into positions and a degree of opportunity cost to UK on the actual agenda of the meeting



2/
A lot of the annoyance seems to have come from Macron's remarks on NI being apart from the rest of UK. Johnson's response (above) is true, but misses a key part of the picture - he agreed to NI being apart from the rest of UK

3/
Read 12 tweets

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