I'm going to go through this once again, today mainly because 'we didn't realise how the Northern Ireland Protocol would work in practice' is no grounds for trying to get out of your treaty commitments
We'll leave to one side how anyone could sign up to anything they didn't really understand, because that's beside the point of international law
3/
The thread in my OP unpacks the principle of pacta sunt servanda, which is fundamental to how treaties work
Without it, no treaty would have any meaning at all
(obviously a problem, even for the hardest of Brexiters, who might see value in things like NATO, WTO, etc.)
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Now pacta sunt servanda isn't complicated to understand (if you sign up to something, you commit to it, unless really exceptional circumstances intervene)
But it's proving hard for some to get their heads around
So let's try a simpler version
caveat emptor, or buyer beware
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You know this, even if you don't know this
For once in my life, I'll send you off to the Mail to read about 'the dangers of not reading the small print' when buying online
It's the same principle: you're entering a contract, so it's on you to check that contract is what you want/need and that you suffer the consequences
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In both shopping and treaty-making there are general rules about what's allowed: essentially stuff about good faith and no coercion
But the key bit is that you cannot outsource the consequences of your decisions
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Yesterday's Command Paper on the Protocol was an attempt to do just that: outsource
Lots of words about how difficult it's been and how unusual
Yes, Northern Ireland is unusual and so is the solution chosen (the Protocol), but that's not a reason for the solution to be broken from
Indeed, you could argue it's precisely why you stick to it
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You might have noticed that Northern Ireland's situation was the subject of some* discussion prior to the signing of the Withdrawal Agreement in 2019
Including a renegotiation of precisely that Protocol by Johnson in the autumn of that year
* - lots
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The issue of how to manage the trilemma of the needs of the GFA, UK territorial integrity and the EU's single market was thrown around many, many, many times and the outcome was the one that was decided to be least worst and which both UK and EU signed up to
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Which is a long way of saying that it's literally unbelievable that the UK govt didn't know how this would play out
And, again, under pacta sunt servanda, that is still irrelevant: the treaty was signed and ratified, so it stands
13/
In short: it wasn't all a dream and you don't get to pretend the last season didn't happen
[kids, you can ask your parents about this]
/end
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Two options for Frost today: present a new plan for NI Protocol, or repeat old lines
So how would those play out?
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New plan is unlikely to fly, mainly because the ground has been very thoroughly worked over during the past 4-5 years
But let's imagine someone's had a bright idea
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A necessary precondition for that new plan would be to show how it ensures all EU needs are met at least as well as now. Otherwise it's a non-starter
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Earlier this week, the DUP set out 7 tests for any new arrangements on the NI Protocol. But does any model work, especially if you throw in the UK & EU's red lines?
The key point is, perhaps obviously, to point out that there is no option that can both satisfy all the DUP's tests and be acceptable to the EU and London, even before we get to anyone else in Northern Ireland
Which suggests that as long as everyone's policy preferences remain as they are, there is not going to be a stable equilibrium and tensions are only going to continue
Since I've written a lot about #Brexit (and for longer than 5 yrs), I thought I'd share some content that speaks to the bigger picture and that might still be of use now
tl;dr it's gone about as well as I thought/feared
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This, from Nov 17, tries to explain how Brexit is an exercise in apportioning costs
A quick Monday morning run-down of where the UK is on the Northern Ireland Protocol
tl;dr yes it creates problems, but those are ones of the UK's choosing
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This weekend's G7 was very much at the worse end of possible outcomes, with much digging into positions and a degree of opportunity cost to UK on the actual agenda of the meeting
A lot of the annoyance seems to have come from Macron's remarks on NI being apart from the rest of UK. Johnson's response (above) is true, but misses a key part of the picture - he agreed to NI being apart from the rest of UK
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