Thread by @RijoMJohn

.@MoHFW_INDIA has quickly come up with another #MythsVsFacts to "debunk" one more report highlighting India's #COVID19 deaths undercounting as they've done multiple times in the past.

As usual, the rebuttal itself is rich in myths & low on facts.
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https://twitter.com/RijoMJohn/status/1415270140925538306?s=20

The original study by the @CGDev & authored by respected authors including Dr. @arvindsubraman, former chief economist to GoI, estimates that India may have undercounted #COVID19 deaths by 10 times. The study can be found here.
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cgdev.org/publication/th…

The major problem GoI seems to have is that this study "audacious"ly assumed the same international estimates of age-specific infection fatality rates (IFR) to Indian seroprevalence data ignoring the fact that the authors have used 3 different methods to derive their numbers.
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Their central estimates ranged between 3.4m to 4.9m excess deaths with the international IFR-based estimate placing this excess death in between at 4m, making it 10 times the official estimate.
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The authors also say "Our purpose in this paper has been to report--without in any way endorsing--different databased estimates". i.e., these estimates are only meant to suggest possible high undercounting & warrants the need for GoI to be transparent about true COVID19 deaths
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However, after an outright denial of such excess deaths as pointed out by umpteen studies including this & the ones in the past, the PIB release goes on to propagate some really outrageous myths.
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It says "India has a thorough contact tracing strategy. All the primary contacts, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic are tested for COVID-19."

Wow!

This is a complete lie (myth?)
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For a long time, ICMR guidelines had specifically stated that testing will only be done for symptomatic cases.

On record, AIIMS had decided to discontinue contact tracing of exposed HCWs due to insufficient resources and shortage of staff during 2nd wave.

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Several states also classify daily new cases by contact patients & patients with no history. Obviously, this means there've been several cases throughout this pandemic whose source of infection is unknown, although GoI kept maintaining that there's no community transmission.
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The PIB release also says "The true detected cases are the ones that test positive with RT PCR" giving the impression that most detected cases are through RTPCR. It doesn't say that only about 47% of all the covid19 tests done in India so far are RTPCR, "the gold standard"
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It also says "Given the robust and statute based Death Registration System in India, while some cases could go undetected...., missing out on the deaths is unlikely"

Almost speechless!

myth vs. fact?

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GOI's own data shows death registration is only 86% in India & the medical certification of those deaths is at an abysmal 21%. Need we know more?

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It says ICMR has issued clear guidelines on appropriately recording covid19 deaths. True. But is that enough to say all deaths are recorded appropriately? No.

Hardly any states in India follow these guidelines while recording covid deaths & there has been no remedial action.
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In fact, death audits were ordered by courts because of which some states were forced to audit and revise their reported COVID19 deaths.
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"In his statement in Rajya Sabha yesterday, Shri Mansukh Mandaviya, Union Minister of Health & Family Welfare has refuted allegations of hiding COVID-19 deaths"

Ok, he refuted, so there is no undercounting!

Myth vs. fact?
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And then it says "During the peak of the 2nd wave, ... correct reporting & recording could have been compromised " So, you are not confident and this is not the spirit of the claims you made earlier!
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Then it says "the robustness of statute based Civil Registration System (CRS) ensures all the births and deaths in the country get registered". Yet, the CRS data
says the death registration is only 86% at the national level, 35% in Bihar & 61% in UP.

Myth vs. facts!
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Please use facts while trying to debunk myths.
Instead, most of these #MythsVsFacts PIB releases throw in a lot of myths on our faces.
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Also, if GOI doesn't like transparent & independent studies by academics that attempt to estimate the extent of undercounting of COVID19 deaths in India, they must themselves undertake a nationwide study to gauge the true COVID19 deaths & make it public.
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