Thread by @RijoMJohn

Thread.

1/ An article from @TheEconomist claiming that India's true #covid19 mortality maybe 5-7 times than the reported numbers has really irked GoI so much so @MoHFW_INDIA has now published a rebuttal that is short on substance but abundant on rhetoric.

2/ After using words like "speculative", "misinformed", "unsound" etc. to describe the article, the rebuttal interestingly says "there is no peer-reviewed scientific data available" for some studies used in that report.

I'm glad GoI takes scientific peer review seriously.

3/ Then why has it made claims on the safety & effectiveness of Covaxin without backing up with peer-reviewed scientific data?

What was the peer-reviewed scientific data based on which #Coronil got Ayush Ministry certification?

Thi list is actually long. So, I'll stop.

4/ The rebuttal says GoI "has been transparent in its approach to COVID data management" & MoH has
"robust reporting mechanism" for "district-wise cases & deaths on a daily basis".

Where do you report daily district-wise data on #COVID19 cases & deaths for public access?

5/ Rebuttal says ICMR has "issued ‘Guidance for appropriate recording of COVID19 related deaths in India’ for correct recording of all deaths"

Do you have data to show which states adhere to these guidelines & which do not? What actions have you taken against those who didn't?

6/ There is sufficient data in the public domain that most states in India do not follow @ICMRDELHI guidelines on reporting of COVID19 deaths & yet, there haven't been any decisive actions taken so far to correct those.

7/ The rebuttal interestingly points to GoI's writing to the state of #Bihar to provide a detailed date & district-wise break-up of the reconciled number of COVID19 deaths as an example of its robust reporting mechanism for monitoring cases and deaths.

8/ However, it conveniently omits the fact that Bihar was forced to do this reconciliation in reported covid deaths after a Patna High Court last month that flagged irregularities in reporting of covid deaths in the state.

9/ Interestingly the rebuttal acknowledges there will always be a difference in mortality recorded during a pandemic vs the actual mortality.

Has GoI made any official estimate of the true covid mortality from its first wave since we've been already many months past it?

10/ Many epidemiological models have estimated that #COVID19 deaths in India to be ​~5 times or more than the reported. So, the estimate in @TheEconomist report is well within what the scientific community already believes to be the true extent of the excess deaths in India.

11/ There have also been other excess mortality estimates in select states/regions (using official all-cause mortality data) which puts the actual death tolls to be 5 times high. Here is the latest example of that from Madhya Pradesh as done by @Rukmini.

https://twitter.com/Rukmini/status/1403562991610519557?s=20

12/ Instead of issuing rebuttals of this kind (pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…), @MoHFW_INDIA must take proactive measures to facilitate timely estimation of excess deaths during pandemics so that we get a reasonably accurate picture of the true extent of deaths & devastation.

13/
Estimation of such data is already possible in several countries as done here. But, huge delays & the absence of regular monthly data on all-cause mortality across most Indian states limit India's ability to get up-to-date & accurate data on deaths.
ft.com/content/a2901c…

14/ There is no point blaming anyone trying to make sense of the reality of the true devastation of this pandemic with studies that are often limited by the availability of good data and not by the rigor of methods used.

15/ Instead, the GoI must proactively & regularly publish reliable all-cause mortality data in regular intervals at the national level so that studies using incomplete & unreliable data to make sense of the true extent of deaths in a pandemic become redundant.