@MoHFW_INDIA is the official Twitter handle of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, GoI. It must a place to report accurate, realistic, & contextual info on the pandemic that is ravaging the country!

Has it done that? I do not think so!


There's been an undue emphasis on the cumulative numbers of #COVID19 vaccine doses administered, tests done, recovered cases, etc. without a sense of reality. India is the 2nd populous country in the world. So, the cumulative numbers for anything ought to be large!

Instead, @MoHFW_INDIA should instead answer:

What % of our population has been vaccinated so far?

What has been the pace of vaccination?

By when do you think the vaccination coverage can reach the target?

When do you think an ordinary citizen would be able to get a jab?

Has our daily COVID19 testing been sufficient & keeping up with the pace of growth of cases?

Is the testing adequately capturing all the cases?

If not, what are the potential risks involved?

What is the current capacity of hospitals, healthcare personnel, oxygen, ICU beds, ventilators, testing kits, etc.?

Is the capacity sufficient to serve the potential caseload that is expected in the coming days/weeks?

If not, what measures are being taken on a daily basis?

Instead of answering such questions, @MoHFW_INDIA keeps publishing unrealistic cumulative numbers for a 2nd populous country in the world. That only helps a false narrative that may inadvertently make the public more complacent! It wouldn't help curb the pandemic!

These are the same mistakes that we did through the 1st wave & led us to this 2nd which became far more devastating.

If we don't do course correction & get realistic, the 3rd wave could become even more disastrous for us!

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More from @RijoMJohn

6 May
Thread on COVID testing data

It's been a month since @ICMRDELHI has been reporting at least 100K fewer tests than the tests reported by all states combined. This discrepancy has been growing & is over 3L for the past several weeks.

What does it mean? What implications?
In the past, this difference used to get reconciled over time. But, this time, this difference is so large & not been reconciled for a long time.
Few plausible reasons:
1) ICMR only reports tests coming from its own approved labs & states maybe adding testing numbers from unrecognized labs too
2)States inflating the testing numbers on paper for various reasons
Read 6 tweets
5 May
Thread on #COVID19Vaccination

Daily avg jabs are now 1.8M indicating acute vaccine shortage whether GoI admits it or not.

It means 18-45 yrs who are better positioned to register on CoWIN & at lesser risk of dying are using the limited doses & depriving the more vulnerable

Avg. daily jabs have declined from a peak of 3.7m to 1.8m (51% fall over the past month)

Many vulnerable & aged have to reschedule their visits multiple times to get jabs which increase their risk of exposure significantly

Until the vaccine supply is increased & can be ensured at a minimum of 5m doses/day, the GoI should immediately stop the 18+ vaccination drive.

This is extremely important to reduce the risk of deaths among the most vulnerable population.

@MoHFW_INDIA @drharshvardhan
Read 4 tweets
4 May
India's reported #COVID19 cases have crossed 2cr (20M)

The daily chart suggests a peak/plateau. However, this is NOT natural.

This 'peak' has followed reduced daily testing.

From a peak of 19.5L daily tests on Apr 30, our daily testing has been on a consistent decline!
Yesterday's daily testing was only 16.6L despite being a regular Monday!

It appears that we are forcing an artificial peak with reduced testing!

The consistent reduction in testing started just as we crossed 400K cases!

Something quite similar had happened during the previous peak last year too.

The day daily new cases touched 98K & everyone was expecting India to cross 1L daily cases, the daily testing began going down

Tests did go up after a gap of few days only to see reduced cases!

Read 4 tweets
23 Apr
Some epi models predict 8L-10L daily #COVID19 cases in India in the next 2-3 weeks. In all likelihood, India is already having that many daily infections. However, will India ever report that many daily new cases?

My guess: our reported cases will not go >5L to 6L!


The daily growth of tests has been much lower than that of daily cases for the past 1 month.

The avg. TPR now is 18%. Our avg. daily testing now is 16L.

At the current TPR, it'd take 33L daily tests to report 6L cases, i.e., more than double the current daily testing.

2/4 Image
TPR has also been on a steady growth path & even if we assume the TPR to reach 20%-25% in the coming weeks, it'd need 32L to 40L daily testing for us to report 8L cases. I believe, it is nearly impossible at the current level of testing & its rate of growth.

Read 4 tweets
20 Apr
It is to be noted that the policy shift in the government of India’s #COVID19 vaccination has come at a time when the daily inoculations of #COVID19 vaccines have been on a steady decline going down from a daily average of 3.7M to 2.7M in the past two weeks.
Domestic supply constraints & the Union government’s failure to ensure vaccine supply commensurate with demand from different states were evident on vaccine delivery so far.
This new liberalized policy could shift the onus of vaccine procurement to meet the demand onto the state governments, something the Union government itself has not been quite successful in the past as reflected in the slow pace of vaccination.
Read 5 tweets
23 Jan
#Kerala is seeing a steady increase of new #COVID19 cases & Test +ve rates.
👉It accounts for >40% of all new cases in India
👉Testing is pretty stagnated
👉Vaccination has been at a very low pace too. Only 47K Beneficiaries so far, while neighboring Karnataka did 1.83L
The only solace has been a relatively low mortality rate compared to the rest of the country. This mortality rate has also seen a marginal increase in recent times. There are also discrepancies in reported deaths between some district administrations and the state.
Districts like #Ernakulam, #Alappuzha, and #Pathanamthitta are seeing the maximum increase of new cases in recent days!
Read 6 tweets

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