Thread by @jonworth

To make sense of this @COdendahl you also need to look at what coalitions are *mathematically* as well as *politically* possible

I explored that here:

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1417785499968757761

More thoughts in the 🧵

https://twitter.com/CER_EU/status/1419990954421989379

First, I agree a CDU/CSU - Grüne coalition is the most likely - and it's probably going to be the only 2 party coalition that would mathematically work

Second, I also agree CDU/CSU - SPD - FDP is highly unlikely - no-one wants it, especially the SPD. But if all else failed..?

Where I disagree with Christian is about if SPD would join a Grüne - SPD - FDP coalition. Not governing with CDU/CSU would be a major change, and given policy agreements with the Grüne on a lot of issues, the SPD might see an opportunity - even if they had finished behind Grüne

And last but not least, if CDU/CSU - Grüne is not enough to form a majority (possible with both CDU/CSU and Grüne slipping just now) is the return of CDU/CSU - Grüne - FDP (Jamaica coalition)

With the FDP gaining at the CDU's expense this one is looming into view...

This one would be a nightmare to negotiate, and the Grüne would be in the toughest spot if this came to pass, but - due to the mathematics of it - this might be the first one to try

/ends